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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I will say the overnight OP CMC and Euro look interesting towards the end of their runs, but it is in that seemingly-always-present, but-seemingly-never-quite-realized, 8 - 10 day period. Both show a wave trying to ride a front after it passes through. CMC on Dec 14 and Euro on Dec 17.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Strat still looking interesting this AM, as a follow up to what Carver's posted last night. This is not meant as any sort of critique of his post or the post in the MA forum, but the 500mb ensembles still look similar to yesterday, so I thought I'd go strat. hunting. Although IMO we're still too far out to know what if anything is going to happen, I do think there will be an attempt at a warming or split in the next 10 - 15 days. Whether it meets the criteria for a SSW or produces anything in any way useful for us, remains to be seen. Looks like it is kind of a mixture between a bottom up and top down event. 50mb on the 0z Euro: There's stretching and some splitting at this level and the 0z GFS shows what the Euro could show if it ran past 240 hours: A weakened vortex tries to reconsolidate, at least at this level of the atmosphere. Higher up, the Euro sees the warmth building over NE Siberia, but no split: GFS gets the split at 10 mb, but also reconsolidates: 3D vortex page is usually a day behind in the GFS runs, so I can't show it in that format. I'd like to see it within 3 - 5 days with some ensemble agreement to start really thinking about if a SSW or split is going to happen or not. Still looks stout on some ensembles, at least at 10 mb: At least it's are looking weaker than last year, lol: And as a lesson from last year, here is how a similar, almost split, could reconsolidate: Last year's SPV was a record strong, so not sure it will be that way again. But it is still 2020... I had my year off from SSW and splits last year. I'm good to go for another one, as long as it doesn't wait until Feb, to make a miserable Spring.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Initials are E.B. That’s all I will say.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    @Carvers Gap interesting to see the difference just over in Carter's Valley:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Moisture being lifted over KY and N. central TN: and it looks like a little front just crept through Nashville.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Already got some hit and miss mid 30s in SW VA and NE TN
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hope @mempho is ok? Time to dredge out the TN Valley Panic Room/ Lifeboat decor.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Member 35 of the 12z EPS likes a snowier solstice solution:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah that would be ugly. Solstice severe on the control after some ice. Double the Christmas power outages = double the fun.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the 500 mb pattern @Carvers Gap was talking about:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM 3km (and the RAP, sort of) has an interesting feature for tomorrow AM moving off of the plateau into the central eastern valley and on towards the Smokies: Looks like it has something to do with the 500 mb energy. Not that it would be a big event either way, but I will be watching to see if something like that happens. The NAM shows some frontogenetic forcing to the lee of the Apps, just as the blob of precip I circled would be moving over taht area: so maybe there is something like that to the lee of the plateau as the 500 mb flow backs up the valley at the same time as some lower level lee side convergence happens just ENE of the frozen head mts? 500 mb flow in blue, 700 mb flow in black, 850 mb flow in red The NAM sounding shows the best forcing and moisture just below the Dendritic Growth Layer, but some moisture up to 500 mb. Again this is not going to be a huge deal, but it is the kind of micro climate stuff I'm interested in.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking a little rough on the overnight EPS in the long range: At least it looks like a drier mildness and more zonal pattern than we have had in the past couple of winters. Might mitigate severe (sorry for severe lovers, not hating on you, just not a fan myself at least here where it seems like it is usually overnight and hard to see) and what has been our monsoon season for the past couple of winters.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    In a wild plot twist, the RGEM, mentioned in my post above above as missing the phase for the first two pieces of energy, has now reversed that position and phases them more like the Euro did in its gif above: RGEM thinks it could get interesting for SW VA and maybe, just maybe, TRI. All happening overnight Sunday into Monday, so that would help. The OP GFS and NAM aren't having any of it. Several of teh 18z GEFS members are similar to theRGEM though: OP Euro now looks like what the RGEM looked like a couple of days ago: EPS members aren't having any of it either.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Frozen Head this AM. Lots of nice waterfalls after the rain: Nice cold air advection interacting with the mt tops: Despite the rain, still some snow above 2500 feet: The mountains looked kinda foreboding this morning too.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thought I'd do a little poking around the strat this AM. 0z 6z GFS almost, kinda, sort of tried to do a little split in about ten days: 0z run: 6z To be realistic, 10 - 14 days is waaaayyy out there, even for something as simple as trough and ridge location and even more for anything happening to the strat. Even if it did split, there are a lot of ways that could go wrong. Something to watch anyway. On a related note, looking at GFS's depictions of the dynamic tropopause and vorticity way up in the atmosphere, this attempt at a split may be tied to two things, on different sides of the globe. Over Siberia and the Bering strait, there are warming temps at 10 mb. You can see that above, as well as on the 0z Euro: Above Iceland and N. Europe, but lower in the atmosphere, some dynamic cyclones are tossing some anticyclones toward the pole, and the bottom of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV): You can see some anticyclones decaying over the pole in the early frames of the above gif, but I have also circled a more cohesive one. You can see it here at the bottom of the troposphere: in both you can see the main areas of vorticity getting stretched out from Hudson Bay to Siberia and I think that corresponds to the stretched look the SPV has in the first gifs of this post. But beware, if you look at the 3D vortex, you can see that all this may just be something that is going on at the lower levels of the SPV (concave area over N. Europe): Again not saying there is going to be a split, just decided to poke around in the strat. this AM. Doesn't always bear fruit, but something to watch. The anticyclones at the dynamic tropopause being tossed across the pole can be more meaningful, even if they don't disrupt the SPV, if they dislodge something or shake up smaller vorticies as they wander around the pole and towards Siberia. But that would have a 2 - 3 week lag for us and that is only if the GFS's depiction of anything late in its run proves accurate. Maybe Sandy Claws will bring us a present though:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS happy hour for SW VA and TRI:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    A met in the MA forum mentioned the UKMET overnight, so guess what I did as soon as I saw that, lol, like a moth to a candle: One thing I'm interested in this AM is the RGEM. Unless I have missed something it is, very nearly, on a an island in how it handles the three pieces of energy. It misses the phase between the what I'm calling energy piece #2 (circled in pink) and #1 ( circled in black). 6z Euro for comparison: 6z Euro 3 hour precip: To misquote Wellington, "it's a damn close-run thing." UKMET, NAM 12km, and even the RGEM's parent, the CMC also have that capture. Interestingly the 6z GFS doesn't. As volatile as things have been, I'm hesitant to say there's pretty good agreement for some sort of wintery weather in eastern areas of our forum, but definitely still intriguing this AM.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of interesting. 18z Euro handles the energy early next week interestingly:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wonder if differential temps had something to do with it. I bet there was some good 850 WAA today.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM looks even more interesting, if more marginal: ?
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still a looooong ways to go, but there may be some over performance potential with this set up:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting beyond the gif above. It seems like that western ridge is reluctant, as you were saying, and the TPV is only pushed over by a building Greenland block, if we take this verbatim. Will be interesting to see how it plays out and how it looks without the smoothed mean. Some of the images were missing on weathermodels, so that is why it blanks out a bit towards the end.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS looks pretty similar at that timestamp:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some fun perpendicular wave clouds coming off of the Smokies and the Frozen Head mts today, crashing together over Morristown:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the overnight ensembles for those interested. Not much change as far as I can tell: Trough is wanting to shift N and W. Convection has has seemed to have picked up over the dreaded Maritime Continent (MC) over the past couple of days, after a nice flare up in the central- Western Pac, but this AM at least, it looks kinda anemic and scattered again, compared to how it looked when I checked last night. Also note the "Pac Jet of Woe"(c) screaming across the central Pac. It may be that the lessening of convection this morning led to this solution on the OP 6z GFS: what had been just a big ol cutter, now looks like a more easterly, weaker cutter, with a little wave riding its front from the Gulf up the coast. To be fair there's probably more going on that a slight change in Tropical Convection. Correlation doesn't mean causation, but I have noticed sometimes or at least think I've noticed (lol) how the way models see that convection has impacts in their solutions.
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