Holston_River_Rambler

Euro handles a vort differently from the GFS and this vort squishes the system a bit Euro -> GFS

3km: 12km:

Yeah, was also just about to post the 3km was not nearly as warm nosey.

NAM is trying to bring in some mixing issues I 40 south

SREF makes it look like the NAM will come in amped. I guess w'll see soon.

Getting some pretty good light snow here now, slowly getting heavier.

The Bays mt band kind of reoriented this AM as the some colder air was pushed Ne and SW against the higher mts: see how the clear air is sort of stretching south of Knoxville and north of Bristol? so you briefly get the band aimed at Kingsport

6z Euro looks similar to 0z to me, but with a bit a smidge more .qpf over the ever important (to me) Cumberland plateau and eastern TN areas: 6z -> 0z pay no mind to that slight decrease over western TN.

Man I'm glad things started to trend back north, I checked the models occasionally when I woke up overnight and just before I went to sleep and saw those south ticks. I was about ready to make up some cope with the old RAOB network weenie rule and claim the main shortwave had been soundable, but had just dropped south of the network. Or that the N. Hemisphere satellite info always looks kind of janky and so models were having trouble resolving the northern shortwave. Or try to find the Alex Boreham data that shows RAOB data vs. models. But instead I'll just show this nice tropical connection:

18z EPS members and slps:

RGEM:

RGEM looks like it will be pretty similar to 12z.

NAM looks to be coming in juiced up.

EPS members: Member slps:

EPS 12z -> 6z lp centers and panels not out yet

6zEPS: Higher res image I was mentioning above:

Euro is almost fully populated and there are several 990ish lps around the Outerbanks.

6z GEFS member pressures and snowfall 6z EPS is not quite out that far yet.

One of my favorite snow bands has made an appearance this morning, the Bays Mt. band: It even got an MRX mention this morning's AFD: Have extended the Winter Weather Advisory another 3 hours as north or northwest to south southeast snow bands have set up in a few spots. One near the Knoxville Airport and another just west of Fall Branch Tennessee that may be coming off higher terrain features. Fall Branch is just east of one of the higher parts of Clinch Mountain that reaches near 3000 feet. They call it Clinch Mt, but it is actually Chimney top, the highest peak in the Bays Mt formation. Zoomed in view: The one Reb mentioned above is still kicking around a bit, but is harder to figure out, but maybe it is just a good trajectory over the river: There does seem to be some continuity with an upstream band near John?

FWIW NAM looks pretty good at the end of its range.

18z EPS members: 18z EPS individual snow panels:

Here are the GEFS lows again:

500 mb: surface: