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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    FV3 FWIW coming in with very little ice
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I liked <sarcasm> this sounding from the NAM: 31 degrees, best guess: Rain sounding from this frame in central TN
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM is still trying to shove a lp up into the gut of middle TN 4 run trend:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z 12 km NAM sleet sounding, I will defer to Tellico: location NE Alabama:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Healthy moisture transport:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it's possible, but should be taken with a hunk of salt for now.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just based on 500 mb trends at 15 hours out, I think the NAM will have more precip this run, mixing or not remains to be seen.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wasn't sure what Tellico was talking about with SHARPY, so I looked it up and thought I would share: https://sharppy.github.io/SHARPpy/
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ron to run trend:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know which is better on the HRRR, the Kuchera or 10:1 lol.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe Powell will ride in like Gandalf at Helm's Deep to usher in the 18z runs?
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I have noticed (now that I can look earlier than thought at the SREF thanks to fountain) is that he SREF cores seem to have been overestimating ZR over AR and TX: 5 run trend: ARW core NMB core: They are also too far north with the mixing line:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Past 3 EPS means:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Welp, still over an hour for the SREF, so might as well look at the EPS: 10th through 90th percentile snowfall (this is NOT an increasing Mean)
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Local news (WBIR and WATE haven't had a chance to see WVLT yet) this AM seem to be leaning into the more snow than not, but I think they have the problem of the MRX graphics totals cut in southern and eastern areas of east TN. Also a lot of times the in house models they show on TV are Hi res CAMs that show some of the mixing potential.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM is nailing its colors to the mast of its algorithm.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wild that we were worried about suppression just 22 hours ago, lol.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    WPC probabilities as of 21z: at least 2": at least 4" at least 6"
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM has only a small amount of sleet near the GA border and has upped .qpf a small amount.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hey I almost nailed the WPC disco release time lol. Nice that they want to keep mention of mixing around and south of I 20
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    What time will get an AFD? Will this be one of those after 4 days? I’m goin for 3:34 PM unless they’re waiting on a WPC product like Jeff mentioned.
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