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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    But is the NAM a conjuror of cheap tricks
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    SREF H5 mean looks more...energetic...with the energy.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I tried anticipating the happy hour GFS a couple of days ago, and I failed miserably. But hey, I'll always have the SREFs. On a topical note, here is a dramatic rendering of tnweathernut's PBP. (I can't take credit for it):
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    NOOOOOOOO!
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    You're not wrong
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of my own backyard (and probably screwing myself in the bargain), I am just SW of the 3000' Frozen Head mts and have noticed here that we can sometimes squeeze out some extra precip if it is coming in from the SSW (up the valley and then up the plateau, and then up the higher mts). Some of the hi res models have been showing something that looks like that. Not sure if it is some synoptic/ mesoscale feature or the terrain though, in terms of what the models are showing.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Seems like y'all always get missed. Y'all deserve a Miller B that hammers you and warm noses us. (I hate Miller Bs, lol).
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ye Olden NAM suite looks a little south at 12z. I, of course, like it, on account of the southern Morgan County dollop. It's track looks like just a classic one for TN, but with an air mass just a little too marginal for everyone.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is also how the 6z Euro sees it unfolding:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie is also N/W:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the RGEM has decided it doesn't like Sullivan county, but favors Washington and Carter counties: Meanwhile the 12km NAM seems to have decided to just do its own thing and keeps the snow going for most of its run from Nashville east: You be you NAM: 3km NAM has some nice bands: Here is the RAP, for fun, since we are entering its long range now: It will be interesting to see what synoptic evolution the WRF-ARW core shows when it gets in range later this evening. That core has been spitting out some big solutions on the SREFs
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    SREF is looking north and a little more negative with the energy. Now, will the NAM follow?? Last 5 SREF vorticity panels for 12z Jan 8:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oh yeah, looks like the 18z Euro had some of whatever the RGEM had this AM:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    As always, the winter panels are late, but based on 3 hour precip and 850 temps, suspect the 18z Euro will be kind to NE TN
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM is still kinda hopeful, wrt precip making it north, but warmer.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    We could hug the ARW cores of the SREF if we were desperate (for TRI):
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Soundings showing quite a bit of dry air above and below 700mb:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    It goes neutral over the MS River, you'd think it would get more precip. toward middle TN: It could see something cutting off RH in the mid levels. Sure enough (sorry as I was typing this I though, ehhh, might as well look) The energy over Iowa pulls in some dry air. If that were to drop further south and interact with the southern energy more, I would think it would better for more areas in TN.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    If that were to be how it worked out, would expect some deep Gulf moisture getting thrown back towards the mountains from SWVA NEward.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro has a nice phase for plateau east, but precip maps look skimpy:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I rolled the dice. No fancy names from me this time. Felt wrong for this one for some reason.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ukie looking elevation dependent:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Snowfall looks elevation dependent on it:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Usually the COD site is the last to have model data, but it is whipping TT and Pivotal with the CMC today:
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