Holston_River_Rambler

12z RGEM came back NW too:

It's a maniculum!!! They were often used by manuscript and early printed books readers as finding aides (similar to how we might use a highlighter): We've been warned, but not sure of what!

Maybe the 3km is seeing some convection that cuts off moisture supply?

That's 18z yesterday @tnweathernut It looked waaayyy too good for my area, so I had to do a double take, lol.

Actually you're right. It drops 9 on TYS. Def a jump up for the TYS to TRI crew

Speaking of the HRRR, 12z kinda had it over Unicoi county: Looks like it jumped back a bit to the NW from 6z

I'll also add that I think the topography of the eastern valley could help that, as long as it ends up developing somewhere in the valley: Imagine getting a little bit of dynamics helped by anticyclonic flow, running up the valley

There's a "pivot zone" that has been showing up on models. Some put it over NE TN (Euro, NAM 3km, WRF-ARW to an extent), some put it over the central plateau (GFS para), some put it over the Knox - Hamblen area (NAM 12km, WRF-ARW2 to an extent), some have it over NW NC (RAP). I don't know exactly how to describe it, but where ever that occurs, that's the area that gets hit the hardest. Using the Euro to show this, just because it was easier to make and mark up gifs with it: Here is the 500mb circulation, notice a lil lobe of vorticity kinda sort schamybe does the fujiwara dance with the main lobe: That might be helping pull some dynamics up the eastern valley to intersect with deepish moisture: Even at 850mb there is a little bit of vorticity that wobbles on the run over the eastern valley: So you get this: 850 flow turns Northerly too, so Johnson City/ Elizabethton, Erwin...and... dare I say it...Flag Pond would probably keep snowing with upslope.

6z Euro: How it gets there:

Heavy frost this AM, but didn't feel so cold when I went out this AM. Sure enough, some WAA here, near the edge of the plateau: But just a mile up the road: an 8 degree difference between the edge of the plateau (I'm probably a mile or two from the edge) and another mile onto the plateau

Looks pretty on NT Microphysics GOES 16 imagery: I am a fan of the low level NE flow evident over WV and KY

One thing I am not much of a fan of, right now, is this mess:

I think some of the wishy-washy, waffly-doffly SE ridgeish looks at H5 we've been seeing in the 10 days+ range, may have to do with another Pac jet extension, triggered by a Siberian High descent and subsequent low formation in the pac (much smaller than the last one). High descent circled in black and low development circled in red: and here is what happens with the jet, notice that it gets stronger then weakens and gets more broken up:

Overnight Ukie: Looks like, at least for now, the difference is energy over the midwest that turns the midlevel flow out of the south and mess up thermals. Ukie doesn't have it in the same place some of the other globals do: Ukie: CMC (as the most prominent example):

Overnight Thursday into Friday AM

18z Euro:

It's not even finished snowing yet over NE TN, but figured this would do for us lustful snow hounds:

It closes off an isobar in the NC foothills, perhaps indicative of a leeside mesolow.

Looks like the 21z RAP will be nice to Eastern areas from Knoxville northeast. It's about 75% finished.

Para GFS looks better for that system at Happy Hour:

Para GFS offers yet another solution on model roulette:

Here's the latest RGEM animation to go with John's totals:

Sorry I pulled the wrong run. John has the most recent one above.

Crapola, sorry y'all, I pulled the 12z RGEM. Thanks for the actual one John!

Good we have a theme for this one now..