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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro for NE sections:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    IMO If we can just keep the flooding away at this point, it's a win.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I mentioned this in banter earlier, but looks like we're going to ride in the SSW rodeo again: If the GFS is correct in its depiction of the MJO RMM plots/ convection/ whatever is going on, that would line up with a warming triggered over Siberia. Another High descending, another mountain torque, another jet extension, this time with a more La Ninaish N Hemisphere state (of course with a -NAO too): Of course that is medium to long range, so it could change. Like Carver's said though, I am a more of a fan of how the EPS control bumps a ridge over the west coast as the Gulf of Alaska low rolls backwards over the Bering Sea
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Euro stalls in 7, in its RMM depiction:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Webb's saying that the RMMs are showing something other than a true MJO wave: Now, is that good for us? I have no idea. I'm still not sure what the differences are between Equatorial Rossby Waves (ERs) (maybe that thingy I noted early this AM south of Baja?? which seems to have already dissipated), the "Low", or a Kelvin Wave, and the MJO. The MC region has a flare up again N. of the equator, though:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not sure. Jet looks not so hot for severe, if that look were to pan out: Long range is starting to show reinforcement to the -NAO with another half #%$^% split and warming in the strat, so I'd be willing to bet, at least through mid Feb. it might be hard to get anything to amplify, unless that NAO relaxes a bit for a time.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro for NE sections:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I mean, what even is that convection south of Baja? It's the healthiest blob of convection near the tropics in the N Hemisphere right now: Some of that in the MC, N of the equator is close, but even compared to yesterday the MC looks comparatively quiet. Indian Ocean looks dead, at least N of the equator.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight Ensembles cause heh, it's been a while: EPS GEFS: GEPS Some of the individual storms on the OP GFS kind of remind me of the year Boston got like a trillion inches of snow, whichever year that was. Now, I 100% admit I don't entirely remember what that pattern was, but there were some late bloomers off of the NE coast on the 6z GFS. I was about to look at the tropics again, but saw this on satellite: Just gonna throw out there that whatever that is south of Baja, is probably not good for those, like me, who don't want a ton of rain next week. Now, if you want more rain, that looks promising. Hopefully the NAO can shear it out or help keep it suppressed.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    We want it suppressed to Cuba at this point, right? Not sure how the para does with suppressed storms...lol
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Didn't even need to get to hour 300 on the parallel GFS
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm happy for the MA folks. It seems like they've had it worse than we have. Honestly nice to at least see some CAD patterns showing up. If they can break their drought, maybe it bodes well for others. You NE TN and SW VA folks might get in on one of these too.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour GFS is going to deliver the goods today. Digital snow incoming past hour 300. In a McDonalds bag.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    If I'm whipping out Roundy's 45 day plots, we gotta take what we can get, lol. The Euro says it's happening for NE sections:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Roundy's experimental projections haven't done too poorly this year: If that pans out, it looks like we eventually settle back in to a much colder pattern with an EPO ridge and an eastern trough by mid - late Feb.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some of the convection in the Maritime continent is starting to percolate eastward, closer to 150 than 120 east: Maybe the models will start to look up even more soon, if it cam make it between 150 and 180 Either way, it looks like it has weakened some. Here's where we were at a few weeks ago (not necessarily weaker, just further west):
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Also of interest:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Is it already that time?
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Light dusting on elevated surfaces overnight.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    MRX's map:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Alright ye NAO folks, here we go: let's see what it can do.....
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Lord have mercy. Reed Trimmer is nearby chasing squalls
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nice flow from Mongolia into Canada on the Euro OP long range:
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