Holston_River_Rambler

Sorry man.

How did everything turn out?

Strat PV looks like it may get obliterated in just over a week. Last one didn’t work out a few weeks ago, but this one looks stronger. Masiello is saying that this has the potential to be one of the strongest wave one events on record in March. impacts, if any, would likely be towards the end of March.

I made a new historic severe wx thread.

My old thread got archived, so I made a new one.

12z Euro has something around March 8. I think this is the same system models have been seeing off and on per the above posts.

I made one years ago. Not sure where it went.

Yeah, just saw the Euro and thought that looked ideal for y’all severe folks next Tuesday evening. Hopefully it will QLCSify by the time it gets to the plateau, if it happens as the 12z Euro depicted.

Almost looks like there is a little leeside low forming in upstate SC

A live look out my window:

Ended up with about 1.5" total so far.

Much vaunted late February sun angle has done exactly 0 to melt anything except on the roads.

Here's how that looks on the HRRR, (using COD site since the blues are bluer there)

Yeah, I was just looking at the HRRR and RAP and it almost looks like this system us getting some higher (more elevated)-than-usual moisture trapped on our side of the Apps and some orographic lift is able to take advantage of that in areas that usually don't do well with the typical upslope.

Looks like MRX finally filled in the WWAs over the southern valley. Looks like they pulled the trigger at around 5:30 am.

Pretty cold cloud tops over east TN with some back building over Mississippi and western AL: That big upper low is just over the Dakotas is just pushing it all through a little too fast.

1/2" here.

oooo we have a mesoscale disco: Mesoscale Discussion 0116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Areas affected...Northeastern Arkansas...Southeastern Missouri...Western Tennessee...Western Kentucky...Southern Illinois Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 190001Z - 190300Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates will gradually increase across portions of western Kentucky and western Tennessee through the evening. Rates will decrease through time, though some moderate to heavy snowfall rates up to 1"/hr will be possible in heavier bands. DISCUSSION...Radar analysis shows the gradual shift of snowfall into portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee this evening. Moderate to heavy snowfall is ongoing across southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois, where a persistent heavy band extends, driven by 700-850 mb frontogenesis and isentropic ascent. This enhancement will gradually shift eastward through time, with potential for a few heavier bands with occasional 1"/hr rates. HREF ensemble guidance shows a down trend in rates overall through the evening, with a transition to mostly light snow for portions of western Tennessee. Confidence is highest in potential for better rates across northwestern Kentucky into southern Illinois. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025

Saw a lightning strike and some convective clouds as the sun was setting upstream:

A few satellite and radar obs. for now: Looks to me like convection parallel to the Gulf coast thingy is happening. Note the feature over SE/ South central Texas. Looks like a front focusing the precip. there and south of the LA coast. Also evident on Long wave IR band: No clue what this feature is in west TN (maybe lower/ mid level moisture/ WAA impacting higher cloud temps somehow?) but it looks cool on IR imagery. Dry air trying to overcome near Memphis: Deep Gulf connection seems shut off for now, so we wait and see what the actual shortwave does as it moves east. Still looks near TX/ NM border to me

Pretty good radar echoes SW of Memphis right now but you can also see the virga halo around the radar site.

Rhea county has a Cold weather advisory now!

Sun angle is much lower with JKL’s latitude.

Weatherbell is down for me, so probably not much from me until either that comes back up or SREFs finish around 230 pm.

Nice fantasy storm on the 12 GFS around hr 300. It's even got the '24-'25 winter Baja lowTM trying to interact with the N. stream. surely nothing will change in 300 hours?