
Save the itchy algae!
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Everything posted by Save the itchy algae!
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January 7 - 8 ULL potential
Save the itchy algae! replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I’m a little concerned about this one. It feels like cold rain coming in Farragut, not snow. I hope I’m wrong but I was more confident at this point in the game for the Christmas Eve snow than this one. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
Save the itchy algae! replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I have a hard time believing the trajectory of the New Years storm as it relates to the 6z gfs. It’s too far west to be a cutter and too far east to be a 4 corners low. It has to go much further west or east. What does it want to be? We’ll see I suppose but I’m certain it’s not going to go due north from the tx/la coast all the way to Chicago. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
Save the itchy algae! replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Don’t make me break out the CAPS LOCK. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
Save the itchy algae! replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
By mid week we will have another significant storm system headed our way. Slowed down approach of POPs by 6 hours in the grids, based on new Euro run with deeper trough and slower movement. We should have a classic setup for a 12-18 hour Mountain Wave Wind event centered right now around Thursday, with the timing differing in models. The low level winds will be bringing up a lot of moisture, thereby inducing some instability. Have kept Thunder out for now, but could see it possibly getting into southern parts of the area Thursday. On the back side of this system the colder air could offer another chance of snow around Thursday night into early Friday. The overall scenario is not too different from this White Christmas scenario, but too early to know about available moisture, how quickly airmass will cool, and how much lift there will be. Looks like this precip will taper off pretty quickly around Friday. Edit: sorry guys, don’t know why the font is so large. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
Save the itchy algae! replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
The 6z GFS has a monster in five days. -
Christmas Eve/Christmas 2020 Arctic Express Snow Obs.
Save the itchy algae! replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Good to know, when I left at 9pm the roads were clear in my neck of the woods...wet but otherwise clear I should say. -
Christmas Eve/Christmas 2020 Arctic Express Snow Obs.
Save the itchy algae! replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
You’re close to where I live in Farragut apparently. I’m stuck at work in Powell, did that snow accumulate on the road or just elevated surfaces and grass? -
December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
Save the itchy algae! replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah that was the biggest head fake of the winter last year, it was early and made it seem like we were destined for a good season. This season clearly feels different. -
If it’s the same I’m looking at, looks like mrx’s map is still the one they generated early this am. Their disco still reflects that, I would expect a more thorough update with the 3am product.
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I’ve experienced one severe thunderstorm in my six years living in the valley. It was a drive to get there and it was marginal. This is not the place to be a severe wx nerd—worse than snow.
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
Save the itchy algae! replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Flakes mixing in with the drizzle in Farragut.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
Save the itchy algae! replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Seem stuck at 40 with a 37 dew point in Farragut. Hoping to see some flakes flying at the least today.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
Save the itchy algae! replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
How dare you say that and not elaborate! Perma ban for you! -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
Save the itchy algae! replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Is this person suggesting there’s a (relatively) large extent of arctic sea ice? As it stands it looks like we are currently tied roughly with 2011/12 with the lowest extent on record. That’s extreme relativity there. Also while we are expected to see increased solar activity it is my understanding that we are also in a century-class minimum so our increasing activity may still resemble low solar output conditions. sorry to take this off topic, I’m sure it’s a strong correlation but maybe not the best year/conditions to test the strength of it. -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
Save the itchy algae! replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just my opinion but I have two thoughts on that. First is that law of averages would suggest we are due for a good season, or at least a good hitter or two. And speaking of averages, starting next year the ‘cool’ 80’s drop off the 30 year climate data charts which means we will likely see a change in averages, perhaps skewing more cool since the 90’s and 00’s were so warm. Oceans will probably continue their warm phases which will continue to skew the ‘global’ temperatures though. -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
Save the itchy algae! replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Well Morristown originally thought I wouldn’t get any snow two weekends ago and I ended up with over two inches. By linear thought progression that means I should get over 4” this time in Farragut. -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
Save the itchy algae! replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Has Dr. No come in with the 12z yet? If the trend shows up there in some form then I will start getting excited -
Southeast Valley Special Obs and Last Min Forecasts.
Save the itchy algae! replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
2” in Farragut -
Southeast Valley Special Obs and Last Min Forecasts.
Save the itchy algae! replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Ground turning white in Farragut. -
12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
Save the itchy algae! replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Some snowflakes mixing in with rain here in Farragut. Heard it is all snow on western avenue near the city- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
Save the itchy algae! replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Their pm update is coming in about an hour, hopefully they drop the hammer and everything keeps trending nicely. all precip has stopped in Farragut but temperature is dropping more steadily now.- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
Save the itchy algae! replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I saw the banding but when it went through the precip at the surface got lighter not heavier. Just a mist here with temp at 39. Hopefully it does more up your way. Reports of some sleet mixed in with mostly rain off western avenue.- 486 replies
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- snow
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
Save the itchy algae! replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I’m in Farragut under those high returns. It’s barely doing anything here. Must be higher level reflectivity- 486 replies
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- snow
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