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purduewx80

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Everything posted by purduewx80

  1. purduewx80
    They do?
  2. purduewx80
    This is the feature that should help develop heavier showers Monday night. We'll be in the left front quad of a curved 500 jet streak, with significant diffluence aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates moving in.
  3. purduewx80
    Despite whatever the lower-res NAM is showing, most guidance indicates the trough currently over the Midwest phases w/ the offshore system, allowing the rain shield to expand over the area late tomorrow. Ensemble guidance shows that precip amounts could reach 0.25-0.5" for the city by Tuesday AM.
  4. purduewx80
    It seems kinda obvious from the 3-letter id, no? The airport's address is in Avoca, not Scranton or WB.
  5. purduewx80
    guess it's time to block you again. all the precip is behind the front, which is literally the very definition of anafrontal.
  6. purduewx80
    Right rear quad of the ~150KT jet max doin’ it’s thang.
  7. purduewx80
    climo was definitely a big part of the bust, imo. hard to go all in on a historic early-season storm like that. the other interesting forecast aspect is that 1000-500 thicknesses were fairly high/mild due to the short-wave ridging in place. 850-700, 1000-850 and 1000-700 thicknesses were much better tools in determining snow vs mix/rain.
  8. purduewx80
    thanks for reminding me about #lockitin
  9. purduewx80
    The new GFS actually wasn't half bad, thanks to its cold bias. Various runs of the ECMWF also did well.
  10. purduewx80
    100% false. This was posted on the last page, but that jet structure is highly favorable for anafrontal banded precip. As usual it comes down to the timing of the colder and drier air.
  11. purduewx80
    TEB reporting flurries now, anyone else seeing them?
  12. purduewx80
    it's not much colder, there are just members indicating a possible turn to snow for the city. overall it's much more amped than it's been, just like the 12z op run. next week is the one to watch here.
  13. purduewx80
    Lows in the UHI: NYC: 41, LGA: 42, JFK: 34, EWR: 35.
  14. purduewx80
    It looks like ECMWF lowered licensing fees recently. Pivotal would also appear to be heading towards a subscription-based service based on some recent changes to the site.
  15. purduewx80
    12Z canadian is a benchmark gem
  16. purduewx80
    Most guidance has 2000’ winds peaking at 65-70KT in a few hours. Any convective elements left to the pre-frontal precip may drag a portion of this down to the surface. Otherwise, mixing to 300’ yields gusts near 50KT/58MPH ahead of the front along the S Shore of LI, including JFK.
  17. purduewx80
    indeed. They should tick back up after 8-9 as the LLJ increases and could gust 40-50KT ~10:30-12:30.
  18. purduewx80
    Been a pretty crazy pattern nationwide. It’s currently 18F w heavy snow at DEN.
  19. purduewx80
    Probably for NJ and the city at least. Should jump up into the 70s where that happens.
  20. purduewx80
    Nice find. There are a lot more ASOS in the NE than most other areas of the country.
  21. purduewx80
    That number is biased towards climo that far out, but more importantly, the FV3 has been horrendous w the extended this fall. Should see those numbers creep up closer to the 60s-70s the Euro has been showing ~10/30-11/1. Still can’t rule out a backdoor front cooling things down but I suspect the SE ridge means business.
  22. purduewx80
    nice! It’s been fun to learn how west pac typhoon recurvature doesn’t always = deep eastern trough 5-7 days later this season.
  23. purduewx80
    Similar to this time last year, the jet stream is on steroids. 158KT at 250mb at GGW (Glasgow, MT) this morning is an all-time record there (going back to 1948). Riverton, WY came in 1KT shy of their highest observed 250mb wind speed at 12Z. Meanwhile, tomorrow's jet stream amplification in the Northeast is also likely to set at least monthly records as the Atlantic ridge flexes. GFS below:
  24. purduewx80
    Models have finally come into better agreement with this system today. It'll have both a Gulf and Caribbean moisture connection, so although it's progressive, those rainfall amounts seem reasonable.
  25. purduewx80
    Yup, there have been several strikes in NE Mass, SE NH and coastal ME since 10Z. BGR reported +TSRA in the past hour.
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