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purduewx80

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Everything posted by purduewx80

  1. purduewx80
    Severe thunderstorms with the upper low in western PA near Pittsburgh right now. Quite a few small hail reports coming out of that low-topped squall line. This is part of the feature we'll see rotating into NJ and offshore tomorrow morning.
  2. purduewx80
    can see the more frozen precip moving in on DIX CC. may even go to some snow as precip intensity increases on the W/N side of the city.
  3. purduewx80
    same. regardless of what amounts we all end up with, there will be some fascinating mesoscale meteorology going down for at least parts of this sub-forum during the day monday.
  4. purduewx80
    I didn't say that, just that it has heavy precipitation amounts. Verbatim it has a gradient in snowfall, with the heaviest on the north and west side of the city, NNJ, SI.
  5. purduewx80
    Suggests northern parts of the area would see a quick 1-2" tomorrow. It looks great Monday. Has the narrow axis of 1"+ QPF pretty much over the city. The rain/snow line would collapse quickly southeast during the morning hours. Boston has heavy snow into Tuesday morning.
  6. purduewx80
    I think it's reasonable to expect the city to start off wintry given the ultra dry air mass working into the Northeast now. The warming aloft on SW flow is swift, so any snow will be brief, with pellets more likely, and probably some freezing rain in NNJ, Bronx, White Plains, etc. Still plenty of evidence Monday could deliver, but I still don't think we'll have much confidence in this until late Sunday evening, or more likely, early Monday.
  7. purduewx80
    yes they do. 925 and 850 mb temps are above freezing from ~19Z sunday to ~12Z monday.
  8. purduewx80
    none of the coast/city/long island or even BOS get anything of consequence on its raw snow output. inland location are another story.
  9. purduewx80
    nice stationary banding signature in CT and LI. it's fun to see this stuff but mesoscale details will not be sorted out until 12-24h before they occur.
  10. purduewx80
    See this fcst sounding from HFD for example: Max lift just above the DGZ but to me this sounding is indicative of a band of 2"+/hour rates. For Monday to deliver, you'll want to see that vort axis and the dry slot at 500mb stay just to your SE.
  11. purduewx80
  12. purduewx80
    The 12Z EPS is making the same changes in Canada and ME the operational run did. Should be an improvement over the past few runs.
  13. purduewx80
    no problem. they started up earlier this month.
  14. purduewx80
    they're free on pivotal now. probably halve those totals in the city.
  15. purduewx80
    everything is farther south this run, mainly the upper low and coastal redevelopment. also a stronger high in maine thanks to a better northern stream shortwave and cold push into the northeast sat-sat night. there is a period where precip lightens up and temps come up sunday night, but the 700 low tracks thru PHL w/ some nice lift monday that dynamically cools things for a period of +SN.
  16. purduewx80
    12Z Euro will get the weenies fired up. Big hit for the city.
  17. purduewx80
    Not sure what's going on. The QPF maps we have show barely any liquid equivalent where it has the heaviest snow.
  18. purduewx80
    yeah, wtf?
  19. purduewx80
    There may be something up with the UKMET snowfall output. QPF does not support the snow maps, and in fact, it seems to indicate heavier snow potential in the city.
  20. purduewx80
    Those are exactly my thoughts. Based on what I see today, the best bets for wintry precip in the city may be at onset and then late Monday as the upper low and deformation axis pivot nearby.
  21. purduewx80
    UKMET is huge for the interior. 1-2' for the Poconos, Catskills, Berks, with heavy snow in much of the Hudson Valley and higher elevations of N NJ, as well. Coast looks too marginal.
  22. purduewx80
    The apparent safety criteria for balloons vs no balloons is wind gusts greater than 34 MPH. NYC, LGA and JFK have all recorded their peak gusts in the past few hours, while EWR's was last night. EWR: LGA: JFK: Central Park:
  23. purduewx80
    Pretty extreme pattern over the CONUS right now, with record low 500 mb heights on the West Coast and record high heights along much of the Gulf Coast.
  24. purduewx80
    Somewhat surprised to see balloons at the parade. I wonder if they based the decision off KNYC's wind gusts. Either way, it's fun to watch them nearly lose control as they pass between gaps in buildings. Science in action.
  25. purduewx80
    Quite a bit of lightning to your northeast. These storms based around 700mb have some of the strangest-sounding thunder.
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