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purduewx80

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Everything posted by purduewx80

  1. purduewx80
    shocked there isn't one, NAM was the only hold out and it's catching on now.
  2. purduewx80
    absolutely. classic setup for it with those lapse rates as cold air surges in. I'd say the 68KT at the top of the boundary layer is a more isolated/extreme scenario, but I see no reason 50-60KT gusts won't occur on most of LI and 40-50KT in the city proper.
  3. purduewx80
    RAP valid at 18Z for JFK is close to what the UKMET has been showing (70-80MPH gusts on LI):
  4. purduewx80
    This forecast sounding from LI shows the instability is based between 850-900mb. The inversion is far too strong to get a water spout, but the combo of a pressure fall/rise couplet associated with the passing low/front in addition to strong cold air advection just behind the front will likely allow some of the 40-50KT winds to mix to the surface for a few hours.
  5. purduewx80
    Friday afternoon definitely looks interesting. The 12Z UKMET showed some 60-70MPH wind gusts affecting NYC as the low races by just to the north. 00Z runs is even deeper with the low. Wouldn't be surprised to see some shallow convection with this, given lapse rates and a raging 185KT jet streak just offshore.
  6. purduewx80
    Wind will be the main issue Friday evening. Probably minor delays if anything.
  7. purduewx80
    Euro touching 60 next Wed-Thu. Records are near 70. Could be close.
  8. purduewx80
    Just trying to point out that words matter. You could've described that way differently and still been positive about the changes at 500 mb. To me, you implied everyone in the NE got snow out of that solution. It's much closer to what the EPS has been showing. Going to have to rely on perfect dynamics to get accumulating snow in what will be a garbage air mass.
  9. purduewx80
  10. purduewx80
    That long ass jet, though.
  11. purduewx80
    Definitely showed some improvement on the 00Z run. 06Z GEFS also more supportive of some snow here this weekend.
  12. purduewx80
    Dewpoints have increased to 45-50 degrees in and behind the rain. The ground is certainly colder than that (and now wet) due to our recent cold spell. With the center of the low moving through, winds are quite light, so that explains the shallow fog (cold ground cools the near-sfc air temp to the dewpoint). If winds weren't increasing later, it would probably deepen/worsen overnight.
  13. purduewx80
    Good luck selling any of that to the general public and having them understand it, especially with that attitude.
  14. purduewx80
    12Z NAM and some other guidance showing the potential for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon w/ the triple point/front. Lapse rates near 7C/km and CAPE up to 500 J/kg is more than enough when you have a focused 50-65KT low level jet. A few hours of heavy rain are likely whether or not there are thunderstorms in the city.
  15. purduewx80
    I think our only "hope" in coastal areas is some wrap around snow showers Sunday morning - even that's a low prob in terms of accumulation potential. 00Z runs will have sampled that potent upper low in the PacNW that seems to be responsible for slingshotting our system farther to the N.
  16. purduewx80
    UKMET trended S a bit, but still only snows in the mountains.
  17. purduewx80
    GOES-West is sampling it quite well.
  18. purduewx80
    12Z Euro is fairly close to the UKMET. They both suggest more of a wind/coastal flooding issue around here than anything.
  19. purduewx80
    12Z UKMET has temps approaching 50 in the city as the triple point passes through Saturday evening. Snow is restricted to the very highest elevations well outside this forum.
  20. purduewx80
    Bastardi calling for 1-2' for the entire I-95 corridor yet?
  21. purduewx80
  22. purduewx80
    Nice post! Well said on all fronts.
  23. purduewx80
    Exactly what I'm thinking.
  24. purduewx80
    Nah, it wasn't. Also a torch. Snow limited to the central Appalachians. While there is some potential next weekend, it's a thread the needle in a marginal airmass/pattern situation, so good luck.
  25. purduewx80
    Closest 850mb temps zero or colder are in southwest WV and near the ME/Quebec border. Torched.
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