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purduewx80

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Everything posted by purduewx80

  1. purduewx80
    Could be some of that, but the pattern is so amped up - adding tropical heat into a favorable synoptic pattern could definitely lead to rapid deepening. The trough coming into the West has near record low 500 mb heights for June in the PacNW:
  2. purduewx80
    00Z GFS farther west a bit. PWATs are near or above record territory for June.
  3. purduewx80
    2nd lake breeze pop up of the year here - weird seeing this so early given ~August is climo. There are some decent/new puddles in the neighborhood.
  4. purduewx80
    http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/covid19/
  5. purduewx80
    Ensembles certainly support the heavy rain threat. That Euro verbatim would also be a higher end tornado threat Tuesday evening ahead of the stronger SSW winds early Wed.
  6. purduewx80
    Yeah, tomorrow certainly has more potential. Looks like the lake breeze shifted inland a little too quickly today.
  7. purduewx80
    ORD up to 9.27" for May now. Should be fairly easy to surpass 10" given 2 more days of potentially tropical downpours. Today looks like a near carbon copy of yesterday.
  8. purduewx80
    quality here in humboldt. blew up right on top of us.
  9. purduewx80
    Looks like that's verifying. Can see 5000' (~850) winds increase by ~10KT over the last hour on the KLOT VAD:
  10. purduewx80
    Got to love the anvil lightning strikes hitting both the Sears Tower and John Hancock buildings. Lots of cloud-to-cloud lightning occurring here now.
  11. purduewx80
    Agreed. Will have to watch for localized flash flooding again too. Flow lines up w the front for a few hours this evening. Some 3”+ radar estimates are showing up with the ongoing activity.
  12. purduewx80
    Yeah, the warm frontal passage is more an increase in dew points and shift in winds to SSE. The triple point will essentially pass right over the metro unless upscale growth of the current cells modifies things.
  13. purduewx80
    The best combo of low level shear and low cloud bases should be near the warm front as the cells move in. In Chicagoland this should end up being roughly along and south of the I-90 corridor. The lake will modify the warm front a bit. Not guaranteed to see anything but you shouldn’t have to go too far.
  14. purduewx80
    Agree a slight risk upgrade would've been reasonable given an enhanced risk ceiling across a small corridor. I like the overlay of shear and instability across northern and possibly central IL. Chicago is likely in play too given early AM fog will clear quickly.
  15. purduewx80
    KLOT is estimating 1-2"/hour rainfall rates in this line, with local 3"/hour embedded within.
  16. purduewx80
    no doubt. pretty easy to envision the pivot/training happening over the city.
  17. purduewx80
    Could be close, but it looks like the extreme amounts will be in the more densely populated and urban areas closer to the lake (and MDW). Thunderstorms are closing in quick on the south side.
  18. purduewx80
    Crowded bars immediately after the ruling - only in WI. That partisan state Supreme Court has always been a hot mess. https://wkow.com/2020/05/14/crowded-bars-seen-across-wisconsin-after-safer-at-home-extension-struck-down/
  19. purduewx80
    Anxious to see updates for the past week. Many of the areas relaxing the rules now, I imagine, are in for a rude awakening. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/04/29/covid-19-is-expanding-further-into-trump-country/
  20. purduewx80
    Because it started in the larger cities where people were traveling globally more often. It's fairly obvious the spread was efficient in areas with public transportation. Cut the N vs S bs. The civil war ended ages ago, and I think we all know who won.
  21. purduewx80
    WI and SC are neck and neck in terms of cases per 100,000 people. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covid19-cases-rate-us-americans-by-state/
  22. purduewx80
    Definitely close to 50mph in this shower here now.
  23. purduewx80
    This one was a good example of why not to forecast snow using QPF alone. 800-600mb 00Z NAM average frontogenesis (where the DGZ was located) and composite radar valid at 11Z below. Note the greens/blues are a proxy for downward motion and the orange/red upwards. Lower level winds then carry the snowflakes S/SW (in the case of low-level NE winds) of where the best fronto/lift is occurring.
  24. purduewx80
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0392.html
  25. purduewx80
    looking like a pretty solid call to me. best 700mb fronto/dgz combo should be ~4-9AM.
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