purduewx80

This. Looking at the even bigger picture, a lot of it comes down to both the Pacific pattern (Aleutian low, NE Pac ridge) and how the ridging evolves near New England/Maritimes/Greenland. The latter has not been entirely consistent in the finer details even while the idea of anomalous positive heights in that general area has been persisting. Another trend is for more troughing in the western U.S. behind this wave, which in my mind helps to amplify the East Coast ridge and favor a rainer for areas E of the Mississippi and S of WI/MI. Best bet for wave 1 in Chicago, as it stands now, is for a front end thump. The high is in the wrong position initially to avoid turning to a mix/slop/rain, but that confluence will affect where the high trends ahead of the low. Wild card is the 2nd wave. For now it seems like something similar to the Xmas storm would be favored (Upper Ohio Valley to the Appalachians and northern New England). Model 500 height anomaly comparison and GFS trends below:

Congrats, Plains, North Woods and Appalachians.

A few thunderstorms in WI this morning are taking advantage of the strong wind field and modest elevated instability (sampled on the DVN RAOB below). HRRR and 3k NAM suggest these backfill a bit and could affect Chicago later this morning.

Google it and you'll see the dark web is in deep. Luciferin, btw, is responsible for bioluminescence in bacteria, lightning bugs, etc. Surprise, surprise - they did not have their facts straight. 1 g of D-luciferin is dissolved in 66.6 mL of a phosphate...all it does is literally allow them to track how vaccines help our bodies develop antibodies.

Because Adobe discontinued Flash. Most sites with looping capabilities/animation have changed as a result.

From pattern recognition, a Miller B redevelopment on the East Coast is almost always good for some accumulating lake effect in WI/IL. Looks like we will be seeding the lake clouds from the synoptic system thanks to the subtle N/W shift in the upper-level waves. Should be good for at least mood flakes late tomorrow AM into the night.

I am curious about this, too. One of the HIV prophylactics (Truvada) can actually make HIV harder to treat if administered while someone is newly/already infected.

I lived in NYC the last 3 winters, and they were all boring. Only 1 storm over 10”, just barely. To this day the best winter storms I’ve experienced were in WI and Chicago.

Fits WSW criteria. Warning makes sense given first sig accum plus wind/blowing snow combo.

Fox Business good enough for you? News flash: the stock market is not a measure of the economic health of the average American.

The upper low now in the SW was fully sampled at 12Z. The kicker and back side jet will be mostly onshore for the 00Z RAOBS this eve.

ORD has been forced onto an east op due to the lake-effect clouds. Aircraft arriving on west flow (landing east to west) earlier this morning were spending too much time within the clouds on final and picked up significant icing as a result. Soundings show saturation in the layer of clouds w/ temps at or above -10C, which is pretty much ideal for icing. The layer of saturation/potential icing is shallower on the west side of the airport, so this is a more optimal configuration. Fortunately, winds are just northerly enough that they could land E or W without having too significant a tail wind.

Yep. Prolly gonna shut down 80/90/94 tomorrow night.

Seeing a fair number of hi-res models showing double digit totals now in LaPorte Co, IN and Berrien Co, MI. After having seen some BUFKIT profiles accounting for lake temps in the mid-40s, I tend to believe some 12"+ totals will occur just inland from the lake, with the heavy snow band possibly touching several counties farther inland for a time. The DGZ is thoroughly tapped and saturated, so some 1-3"/hr rates are possible E of Valpo and W of S Bend as a singular band becomes more likely Mon night. HRRRx even gets an inch or so into downtown Chicago (ratios unlikely to be greater than 10:1 except in dominant LE bands and will likely be lower outside of them or immediately along the shore).

yep, exactly. plenty of moisture and a favorable upper pattern in play, but this wouldn't be the fluffy variety that stacks up like we see later in actual winter. the more easterly solution would probably decrease the fetch and result in a more NW'rly flow snowbelt pattern.

Looks pretty meh on the soundings. Inversion heights don’t appear to be deep enough to tap into the good snow growth region w any cold air limited in depth and time (even off Superior).

lol

unfortunately, eating healthy and having enough time to exercise is a privilege in this country, thanks largely to capitalism. helps explain why people of color have suffered the most this year.

100%. This pandemic has proven to me two things (at least): 30-40% of the country is legit either smoking too much weed or actually certifiably paranoid schizophrenic, and 2, many Americans think their privileged lives of luxury mean that everything we enjoy is essential.

I’ve dined out zero times in NYC and Chicago since the pandemic started, already had COVID, but have supported local businesses countless times by ordering take-out or delivery.

Doesn't quite bomb out but close to it. Should be a decent shot of garden-variety thunder in many areas later Saturday, too, with the decent lapse rates and 50-70KT low level jet.

FDT

This turnaround time is one of the biggest failures of the pandemic. There should’ve been more effort to fund tests with accurate, rapid results. In addition to increasing the risk of exposure, people who have common colds or the flu and can’t work while they wait 2-6+ days for a negative result are just wasting everyone’s time.

Likely can be attributed to a decrease in sunlight/UV radiation. “We found that ultraviolet light was most strongly associated with lower COVID-19 growth rates. Projections suggest that, in the absence of intervention, COVID-19 will decrease temporarily during summer, rebound by autumn, and peak next winter.”