midatlanticweather

LWX thoughts Potential still exists for a second round of showers and possible thunderstorms to develop in the 15Z-18Z time frame, but this isn`t completely certain it will happen. Hi-res models are in disagreement with convective coverage with the HRRR showing mainly shallow convection and the Hi-Res ARW and the NSSL WRF ARW showing scattered deep convection in the form of short lines or bowing segments. The 12Z IAD sounding showed two inversions with one from sfc to 850 mb and second one from 750 to 700 mb and corresponding high LFC or Level of Free Convection abv 700 mb. With best 3-hr pressure falls and height falls occurring over western and north central MD in the 15Z-18Z time frame, this is where I would expect the best chance of deep convective development rest of today. Regardless of convective coverage and intensity, strong gradient winds of 45 to 55 mph will occur outside of showers except greater than 57 mph in southern MD where 50kt have already been reported. The risk of convection will be winding down after 18Z and should be over by 21Z if not sooner.

"Only" 0.99" so far out here in Purcellville. That extra heavy rain went east of me this morning. Lull for now as we await round two in a few hours. Stay safe all!

Flurries all over Loudoun currently... I have a few out here in Purcellville.

Potential is definitely starting to show some focus. SPC highlighting Marginal next two days. HRRR going a bit crazy (notoriously).. We will see. Could be an interesting few days nonetheless.

I would care more if we were tracking snow.

Well, maybe people aren't traveling as much.... Ya! Right!

70s Monday?

I have seen/read this story again and again this season...... it will disappear by early next week..

Got some reports around Richmond

GFS looks so odd on the set up! Let's hope for a better look as time passes. Seems we have a lot of potential.. typical caveats on timing, cold, etc...

Yeah.. I know! But we have been screwed like this before, so I cannot completely ignore it! I do agree that the details are far from being figured out.

Fringed - Jumped over - missed in Purcellville/Loudoun @Ji - #WhatTheHeck

High is weaker and slightly further north. Agreed. That is always the worry as we get closer, that the cold is not as strong or far enough south. But we are getting too specific. This will evolve.. I suspect some wintry weather.. how much is yet to be determined

This seems like a weenie run. Hate predicting a model though

But did not get double digit frozen (even though it looks like a sleet bomb after a bit of snow)

I remember that one as well! Like a beach scene with 5 inches of sleet. Was so lame!

BWI: 34 DCA: 20 IAD: 37 RIC: 16 Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): SBY: 7

BWI: 10/27 DCA: 11/17 IAD: 10/22 RIC: 11/10

Final for me would be 8.4 on the ground. I am certain that would have been higher had there not been compaction and melting during the day.

Is that back building going on west of the WV Band, or am I hallucinating? ETA: Ninja'd! Wow! Lets keep the fun rolling!

Fv3 18z came in with 2 to 4 inches this afternoon/evening.

I would have doubted this until the second round. I was around 5 in the Morning and lost some from melting and compaction. Over 7 inches on the ground now and it is starting up again!

Picked up 2.5 new inches this afternoon!!!