midatlanticweather

I would need a map to approve as well! I will keep banter to a minimum! But you are on a roll today!

Let's see what Dr No says before a thread on Monday.

Total precip output was too low for my liking, but this definitely looked good!

About the way I feel when it snows! https://www.theburn.com/2020/12/11/ashburn-boy-really-really-excited-about-seasons-first-flurries

Where did @Bob ChiII and @showmethesnow go?

A friend of mine that worked in the Climate Analysis Center emailed me that morning and said he felt the models were wrong. I watched it for a bit and then called all my plowing buddies by noon and told them to get ready for a surprise snowstorm. Called my parents in Richmond and told them to go to the store well before any forecasts had updated. Was a fun system to watch, but it was in a drier band in Eastern Loudoun so I only had 10 inches when further west had about 6 inches more and, well, it was so awesome up near Baltimore. Was a fun one to watch and enjoy!

Super dry out there, but a wild sunrise! Temps bottomed out at 29.5 degrees. If you look at the radar out of state college you can see the snow aloft! Oh well.

GFS and a stupid GL low! That thing always causes problems. BUT, I put no stock in any of this.. as @Ji can attest! I must not believe anything.. I will jinx it. Interesting nonetheless.. lots of time for failure

Pixies in Purcellville

December 15th seems like the next big rain maker.. but maybe something wintry at the start? I dunno.. seems like potential - but no clean signals

What a waste!

1.33" so far. Still coming down well! temp at 48. Nasty Monday Morning!

Where is Bob chill. Did I miss something? This pattern has to get him more interested!!

Second wave after main front is the only way I know we could score in anafrontal stuff. Not that I put any stock in anything at this point

Got down to 21.9 early this morning. Sitting at 23.5 currently in Purcellville

Already hit 32.2. It will be a cold night!

43 and cold winds! Wintry feel! LOVE IT!

Down to 31.6 degrees for the low. Gonna be a Chilly day!

Models are a yawnfest for the foreseeable future.

What, if anything, could this set up do for us?

Purcellville with 1.59"...healthy but not crazy excessive like others

Wet! https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0856&yr=2020 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0856 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 534 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Areas affected...far eastern TN, western NC into western/central VA and southern MD Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 112228Z - 120425Z Summary...Flash flooding is expected from far eastern TN and western NC as well as western and central VA into southern MD through 04Z from an additional 2-4 inches of rain, on top of a broad 1-3 inches which has fallen over the past 12-24 hours. Discussion...22Z surface observations showed that a cold front extended from western PA into northwestern GA, or just west of the spine of the Appalachians. Moisture was highly anomalous for November to the east of the front, with precipitable water values ranging from 1.5 in western VA/NC to over 2 inches in central/southeastern VA. In addition, MUCAPE was estimated to be in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range across a broad section of the warm sector, with CAPE values having increased 200-400 J/kg across much of VA and MD over the past 3 hours via low level moisture transport according to the 21Z SPC mesoanalysis. Southwesterly 850 mb flow was observed in the 20-35 kt range from western NC into western/central VA via recent VAD wind plots. As the cold front continues eastward early tonight, broad low level directional confluence/speed convergence, extending from western NC into western/central VA and southern MD, will support an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. This will occur beneath strengthening upper level divergence and diffluence, located on the southern end of an upper level jet streak, with a peak magnitude of 150-170 kt in southern Quebec. 850-300 mb flow, a proxy for cell motions, is parallel to the axis of low level convergence, which will support repeating and brief training of cells at times. With the degree of moisture and instability in place, peak rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible with a few locations picking up an additional 2-4 inches of rain by 04Z. Recent heavy rain over the past 12-24 hours has lowered flash flood guidance values across a large portion of the MPD threat area to 1 inch or less in 1 and 3 hours. Given the low flash flood guidance, flash flooding is considered likely. Otto ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...MRX...RNK... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38997703 38627659 38257660 37087900 36667996 36128119 35788239 35828262 36028268 36508197 37048115 37947971 38517804

Hit 77 for the 4th day in a row!

Up to 77 again here in Purcellville! Crazy streak.