midatlanticweather

No doubt, it was great hearing from you @Bob Chill. You have been missed, now this winter better bring you back sooner than later!

2.75" in Purcellville.. Snowing at about 0.02" per hour rates.

Not that I am an expert, but yes. Miller Bs that come from the west often reform too far north for our area. Lows out of the Gulf have all the moisture and strength they need without the new low becoming the driver to deliver the precipitation. The thing that can overcome the problem is blocking that can push these normally north of us storms underneath us, far enough to bring a healthy snow. Additionally, the storms get stuck from being able to go north so they stall and pour snow over the region. We see the typical issues with our latitude showing up now because the block to the north was not quite at the strength once modeled. The low is further north before it does the stall. Storm collapse appears more likely other than the front end thump or if you are northern Maryland and North and east.

Truth

Miller Bs screw issues showing their hand. Dry slot, slow transfer, slow wraparound. NE Maryland pummeled.

I remember worrying about suppression. Not the problem. Slipping away to the north is the problem.

The 1/25/2000 did that to me in Sterling. Huge long lull over top of me with heavy stuff west and east of there! Edit: Ninjad

Alright.. So how did we do upstairs. 700mb and 500mb.. Does this have more potential! Are we negative soon enough. Has it improved? And why doesn't the GFS like Winchester much! LOL! I mean that has been a persistent hole!

Will only post about this once. I like this for future reference. If we revisit the threads on big systems it is fun reading back about what the NWS was showing. We lose that on links over time. Just my 2 cents. - Back to the regular scheduled program!

OK - The Euro is King for recognition of trends and I think we have to give it a lot of stock.. more than the other models. It has the resolution we need and is pretty good at representing trends. The trend is a bleed south. We cannot discount it, despite the other models. My thinking (maybe it is weenie hope) is that the precip shield is a bit more narrow than it will end up being. If we are going to recover with it getting back to better locations, it needs to start today. Some things I think I am recapping here: This is not as easy of a set up as it appeared at one time (Not that it was ever easy! But there were some sweet cold smoke runs.. they are not there anymore) It is so hard to snow cleanly. There is luck always... sometimes we need more luck than others The trend this year is stringing out these systems as they approach and weakening, and suppression. The pattern kind of supporting some of the obvious - PNA issues, west coast is not great, speed of the system At some point this will stop bleeding south and I do think a small bump north (small) and increase in precip seems possible. I am thinking of how things ended up in NC yesterday I am certain there will be some serious failures and people missing big time in this set up. It is not the uniform look that we want We are in the game, and it is not over. I have on snow weenie glasses and keep thinking we will see an expansion of heavier snow to the north (not super north) into favored spots once this stops figuring out the placement of the CCB. Maybe I am being Mr Obvious.. Hedge low.. and hope we get a lot more!

This is probably not completely true, but is there a correlation to full moons and big storms? Maybe I am wrong, but they seem to happen close to each other. Maybe it is coincidence..

So we need the GFS to start getting its act together so we get the consensus on a big dog!

Looks like the center of a Geode!

EURO better hold! I think GFS will evolve a bit better. Would love all to align soon. This winter is nerve wracking.

32 with freezing drizzle. The steps are the slippery part of the morning! Scraping the car was the hardest part. Everything else seemed alright!

Every time I think we may be done for a while, there is reforming happening to the west. Maybe we get more than I think..

light rain and sleet. 33/29

35/28 - DP and temp down from earlier

36/30 in Purcellville

better than me seeing a huge snow just to our south like 2018 - I thought we may go that way

Trolling the models!

There was that one rare time.. maybe early 2000s, when NAM was the only model showing snow up to 11 inches in the area and we got it! We are due.. right? LOL! OK - no more.. this is becoming banter! Bruce Banter (due to the Gamma ray comment)

Anyone looking at 18z Euro for trends on the strength of the low getting ejected from out west? Or was it bad so we did not see it?