midatlanticweather

As has been the challenge this year, whatever disturbance is coming through @ Christmas time on the GFS seems to be anemic on moisture so we do not see much of anything on this run. I mean, there is some ripple of energy/low pressure.. but moisture starved. I know we need to be watching the pattern, but it would be cool to see something come to fruition from these GFS mirages! Now, let's see if the pattern looks favorable and not this little wave.

A definite La Nina Trend here - DRY ->

LOL. Not what I meant at all. Do not take t personally and I could give a rip if I am wrong or first. The whole trend of the season is to overplay and show a lot of moisture in fronts and systems far out, only to squash them, suppress them, or dry them out. I see that on this "threat" as well. The trend seems to go from a system that could do something to a low that has inconsequential impact on us except a ton of wind and cold dry air. That is a trend we will fight all year with La Nina. I hope I am wrong, but this is not a good look. There was a good looking slug of moisture from a low showing on maps a couple days ago.. Now it is a small system disconnected from northern stream support. If it can't get that interaction, the southern stream will win and it does not have much to give this year. But you can get upset because it looks like that is the trend.. Which was not new with this run, or not believe it. That is uo to you.. But do not think you know my intentions. I reacted to you.. I responded to your comments. Anyways... I hope I am way wrong and maybe this is more model chaos than a trend.. But I meant no one anger or being upset by my response.

LOL! How about that 12z run? Is there a trend now? https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2021121412&fh=165&dpdt=loop&mc=&pwplus=1

Looks like we are starting to see the trend again. System less amped, further south. Colder, yes... But this reminds me of the last potential. Slowly cutting back on totals. Hard to get wet systems in La Nina

We could start a Go fund me for this! It would be perfect!

Get the feeling Saturday will be another windy event without much precipitation. As has been the case now for a while, any good rain look dries up by the time the actual event occurs. Not a great harbinger for watching models and storms, but very consistent with La Nina.

I keep reminding myself of this.. as you have said.. We have to get lucky! Some patterns are more favorable to have a lucky outcome. But a good pattern can be wasted. Some years, we seem to get a lot of luck. Some, no matter how good it looks, we are still a miss.

I had some real flakes about an hour ago.. was great seeing it.. lasted 5 minutes.. no one in my family believes me.

Wondering the same thing

BOXING DAY DISASTER was worse.. we try not and talk about these things here though!

NAM says we get a little more than nothing out here in Loudoun! Even the 3km shows something more than nothing... mood flakes still!

I blame the pandemic, global warming, Trump, the supply chain, the unvaccinated, omnicrin, the Crypto crash, and the eary thread for messing up the snow chances.

Winds have been howling! Staying well above 30mph and I know we have had some gusts well into the upper 40s MPH. Temps are down almost 15 degrees in about 45 minutes!

NAM continues juicy with a good stripe out this way in Loudoun into central Maryland. That would make this a little event.. Now.. everything else needs to fall in line. LOL! I am dreaming, but that looks nice and a lot of the area would have more than a few flakes. Maybe happy hour will deliver all around! EDIT: Well 3KM NAM says.. NOPE - Probably not much to see here! Flakes.. sure!

Happy Hour GFS delivered some fun.. but.. we are on the borderline.. and we know what that usually means! Looking better north.

Was great to get the dusting! Leaves me very hungry for more!

Flurries in Purcellville at 5:45 am

A few hours back, while leaving to get some deals, I saw a few sleet pellets mixed in with the light rain showers. Hey, it was something frozen! Yay!

Model watching is not all that great in the long-range. A lot of switching, false hope, false heartbreak. Not sure we can be sure of anything!

Ya! Sure! LOL! The weenie in me hugs every snow depiction and finds heartbreak in every flip to nothing and milder! IT IS THE SEASON!

Typical craptastic! This is such a small feature I just would like to see some flakes. May not get even that

21.7 for a low. Not the coldest of the season but very good