midatlanticweather

Absolutely!!!

Fantasy model runs. We need precip no matter how. I will take it in any form it wants to come.

No, I was home from college in Richmond and we had a sleet/snow event Thanksgiving eve. I could have sworn it was 1990.

Wasn't 1990 also a flip at Thanksgiving?

30.3 here in Purcellville for a low.

Been a great fall. Leaves amazing, good chilly nights, and refreshingly nice days. Best I can remember for years. We need the rain, but I am so happy to see the entire cycle of the leaves on the trees without a windy rainstorm sweeping them quickly away.

I will stop posting this guy until we see if what he says holds any water. Here was his post today. I have no idea if this is true. The challenge, of course, is did we flip because of what he has identified or was it just luck. I saw the comments that his upper air charts were not really at the levels to be doing PV predictions. A re-curvature is known to do a disruption, so maybe that is nothing surprising really. Also, snow where? Snow in the east is what he has been focusing on.. but how far east? Inland NE would really be the only place I would see snow being possible before Thanksgiving except maybe some mountain love. Oh well.

We can all hope! Here you go @Yeoman - some more Twitter info!

Well, when looking for specifics, NO, but pattern evolution can start showing days before the long range and you can start to look for consistency. GFS, though, can become completely inconsistent in one run! LOL! I know all models can. But it is just a tool.

GFS did a good old Flip Flop - the model in the long-range is pretty poor - but I have seen it do better on things in the short & mid-range Yesterday and today! I must remember the rule - we do warm well!

We could!

Suppression and southern sliders will make my skin boil! LOL! I suspect we could see that DC snow hole!

Keeps showing up just location keeps jumping

Seems Cohen is also mentioning the disruptions. Though, I struggle with Cohen's analysis from his poor record. At least he is mentioning the uncertainty.. which is always there in the long-range!

30.8 for a low with a frosty start in Purcellville

It is not just recently. It had been temperamental for a while. I should have done something about it sooner. I will say it seems to be getting worse.. But that could be perception. It is the wifi connection supposedly but it always shows as connected even if it it doesn't work.