midatlanticweather

Maybe check that resource! - I am going to now.

12z NAM looks quite a bit more icy. Maybe warnings expand a bit? I dunno.

Hit 19 at about 3am. Strange spike to 25 at 6am but back to 20 currently.

Flash Freeze?! LOL! Dang, that is goanna be a Christmas Decoration obliteration due to winds!! YIKES!

This looks like we repeat next week! Some slop to rain then the ice box. (According to the GFS OP) Perfect. LOL! NOT!

Good summary by Peter

Someone left their heat on and the door open in far northern Loudoun and the models see it!

I think sleety accumulations will be a small amount until you get near the PA/MD Border and far NW - I think we all see a sleety start that turns to rain in less than an hour. The amounts of frozen actually accreting will be a question. I have added nothing more than saying I agree with the Mets here that this is advisory until you get to the mountain valleys! And no one wants a bad ice storm, especially with the winds forecast! NO THANKS! I would take sleet instead of Freezing Rain in a heartbeat. Anyways, I would not be surprised if folks west of Rt 15 get into a watch this afternoon and get moved to an advisory based on the worst-case scenario and awareness. Mountain areas go to warnings tomorrow! But who am I, but a weenie!

Time for your famous - "We are too far north, south or east for good snows" quote! (Maybe the east is not in that!)

GFS putting down some ice storm totals! I know it is way overdone on Pivotal!

Two more runs shift south and east and boom! Bob's your uncle! (OK - I watched Spirited! SO GOOD) I am not talking to you @Bob Chill - unless you can make it snow!

Well, I would take that run for sure! LOL! New runs every run!

Gonna bring the blue crush if this keeps up. Snow in the south and bitter cold here. Is that what you are thinking?

Probably to trend worse. Terrible setup. The trend was a little less terrible but we need leaps better and the changes from here on out are likely to be warmer and to the north. I hope I am somehow wrong. This has always been unlikely and continues to show us how it can fail.

What happened to the system!

This board is in true form!! It is what I love! The Ensemble looked pretty good. Nice to see. But the shredder has been very capable this fall of taking 1 to 3 inch rain storms and giving me a quarter inch as we got close. That will continue the way it looks

I have not looked! @dtk is the man on models. I had also reached out because I think people knock the 6z and 18z models like we should not concern ourselves with off run times. I think he debunked that myth a while back once better tools were put in place. I dunno. The Euro seems as unreliable as any other model can be these days. Good common sense and meteorology has to be used. This set up is so unique that I would be super cautious about getting my hopes up! But a fluke lucky event is possibly our better chances these days!

Seems so logical of a set up! I mean, it could happen. It likely will not! LOL! - Looks good now. I need the bullseye 7 days out though to feel more confident!

I did not even post about Christmas like some did, or the favorable pattern finally showing up! I take no blame this time! OK - Edit: I did last week! That is true! Maybe that was the domino that led to this one.. I did mention favorable pattern

Luck! We always need luck! And more than ever before these days!

The winter of ever delays! It feels like this may the case. How about the 45 day Snow outlook.. I think maybe something is showing up on this in the southeast! We get that Nina split too! Painful. Reminds me or 2010 - 2011 season

Low of 19.5 degrees was so crip and refreshing! Seems the coldest it will be for at least a week or so.