midatlanticweather

24.4/21 - Still dropping

25/21 in Purcellville, VA

30.5 with dp 21. Temp dropped fast at sunset but stabilized in the last hour

Hit 42 for a high. Down to 36. Dp is 21

That is going to hurt.. Very tight gradient.. Agree totals are bonkers.

That was a huge precip nothing

Memory here, but I feel the Euro was late to the party a while back too and was warm. That was AGES ago now so I may be just wishcasting. BUT, that same storm did changeover and other models were colder.... so.. maybe not.. going to sleep a few hours

Well crap! CMC looks north as well. Well, let's hope it gets better tomorrow.

Looks like a follow-up will wash that away on Tuesday and flooding will be a concern! Going to be a wet set of systems back-to-back. Busy days ahead. Not too focused on that at this time, but something to watch soon after the snow fun

That was nice. Would like more juice but that looked pretty clean on the snow. Good trends

I really liked the CAD showing up. It seemed to shunt the low a bit south with the transfer. The edge of the snowline is always a concern. This was at least a tick in the better direction!

Thermals are going to be an issue with that track! Love the high numbers, not convinced this is a sloppy mess. Better than 12z

This is the best case scenario from what I think as well. Thump.. that will be more likely in your area than east of the Blueridge. Hoping for positive trends to offset the negatives today! But maybe we call all see a brief period of snow.

While I agree there is time to change, and I also thought it was a long shot from the beginning, the trends are not one model run or anything. We know it can turn favorable, but it is a rarity. CMC looks good but shifting, Euro has been saying this is not going to work, and now the GFS is telling us that this will not likely work out. I am up for a change, but in events we usually like to see things improving on every run to get me to a positive attitude about it turning favorable.. if that trend shows up, I will be fine with it! If this is a fail, thank goodness it is showing this 7 days out! The Lucy ball was pulled early!

Writing is on the wall. The trend continues to depress.. Unless we see another trend, I think we have to just accept it! Now looking for the ripple effects on the longer range.

Trends are not super friendly here! We shall see. That 50/50 is key (a myriad of ther things)! We are getting to a range where some better understanding of Thursday's low and the 50/50 interaction. It is all a delicate dance, and our feet keep getting stepped on in each run. I am a deb here, but that is what I am seeing. Does not mean it is correct. Just remember, PSU was fringed at one point! Now models are giving PA and the NE snow. Just an observation. The ensembles give me pause and some hope, but just not loving trends.

Can totally see this ending up north. Seems typical

Thankful for the precip showing now. Just need to fix a few things so bigger things can happen

Not a great look. Some positive changes though. High up north is not great

We know it is fragile and will shift around a lot! It will be a week of happiness and Lucy calls! So, ya! Typical. But we see the shifting already! Nothing is a sure thing.. but some kind of storm seems likely. We shall see! Enthusiastic for now!

Ya.. PSU Fringed is a good sign to me. Let's worry if this is real or a mirage!

That model run was a bunch of crap! LOL! I think there is a lot of model confusion. I mean, it may be bad in the end, but it obviously has some work to do to figure out what is happening. I think this is a given from the board discussion, but nothing looks right! Ensembles may help

Guess I am not looking at the right stuff. Lol

Where did the parade of shortwaves go?

0z is kinda boring. Lol