midatlanticweather

Frost/Freeze risk next week looks way west at this point

The outlook, while cool next week, seems to continue dry and uninteresting! the GFS in Lala land did have a pretty impressive cold shot. Think we still would turn zonal after that passed by.

This is a little less than ideal. Not the KP level but the view coverage

I read that as a Brewsky alert- I was like - wrong thread!

This would have me crying! LOL!

40.8.. Coldest so far this year season!

45.8 last night! Loved it!

We got em!! Purcellvillle

This thing keeps having interesting historic aspects.

I hear 185mph has been measured

This is unreal! What a small eye! Like a 5 mile wide F4 tornado (as someone on x said!

WOW WOW WOW

This is what I saw! I did not confirm Only seven hurricanes have gone from Category 1 to Category 5 in 24 hours or less. Wilma: 12 hours Maria: 18 hours Milton: 18 hours Felix: 24 hours Dean: 24 hours Andrew: 24 hours Anita: 24 hours

567 WTNT64 KNHC 071558 CCA TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Corrected for location/distances in the summary section ...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches). SUMMARY OF 1055 AM CDT...1555 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 91.6W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake/Brown

Anyone catching Aurora's?

47.3 for a low! Was very nice. Could we do 30's Thursday??

Woo! Still Lala land.. but looking like a cold shot on the GFS!

This image is from another flood. Not Helene. It seems to be reposted again and again with different floods.

GFS looks like some Western folks could have lows solidly in the 30s next week. We shall see. It's not quite as chilly on the Euro. Maybe again next weekend... if GFS is right (and this way out) it would get really chilly mid-month.

1.15 inches overnight was unexpected for sure.

0.34 today and. 0.08 yesterday. 0.42 inches. Really wish that would double or triple.

Probably something that did not get modeled right.. strength of Helene, the High to the north and blocking.. stuff that seemed to be missed. The models seemed to see the blocking better last week and then lost it. Anyways, whatever it was, all the models were not seeing it well.

GFS - Has a dry area over central areas with 1 inch plus SW and to the NE. - Odd look 3KM Nam - Much drier General and pushed the heaviest rain southward Icon - General 1 to 2 inch for the area Euro - 6z - looks like it is also pulling more moisture south of the DC area - quarter or less than half inch for the dc area with pockets of more.. really getting dry up near MD/PA border National Blend of models - about half inch near PA/MD border and in the 1 to 2 inch south of DC Seems we have a pretty good sense that the heavier rains will be down towards Fredericksburg area and southwards. The trend is not our friend if we are expecting more rain in the DC area and up towards MD/PA border! Hope we see a reversal!

GFS making some odd predictions next week. A lot seems uncertain. If this was a snow map, I would be scratching my head and wondering what @Ji did to jinx the forecast! LOL! The Euro looks much less enthused with rain chances.

48.2 already. So chilly out. Loving it