midatlanticweather

I agree.

Anyone know if we allow the extra sampling to be fed to the European models as well is American? I guess we do.. Just wondering.. Did the gfs get something the Euro did not or the other way around

In progress! @HighStakes had a post about this earlier. We have access to a lot of other models than the gfs... we just need the GFS to get fixed

Kuchera at least knocks 7 to 10.inches off to make it a little closer to believable.. Only 30 inches in DC vs 38.. Ya.. Sure.

Gotta say it... JB hacked the gfs..

BTW - Did the NWS Disucssion get posted? Was well done with all the caveats and summed up well what the mets here have been saying! KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracking nearby brings a slight winter storm threat to the forecast area this weekend, followed by colder than normal temperatures early next week. A high energy but low predictability pattern looms for late this weekend. The pattern is forecast to be very amplified but in flux as a deep upper-level low digs out of the Gulf of Alaska inducing a downstream ridge-building event over the western U.S. This pattern amplification in the vicinity of western North America comes with low predictability due to data sparse regions over the North Pacific. Meanwhile, a pair of downstream upper lows interact/merge over Maritime Canada, with inherent low predictability with two cutoff lows interacting. If the upstream ridge-building event takes place a bit further west near 120 W longitude on Saturday, downstream trough amplification would be favorable for phasing over the mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys Saturday night. A subsequent low track hugging the coast would become more likely in this scenario, aided by downstream blocking and a potential source of cold air given the upper lows over Maritime Canada and surface high pressure attempting to ridge into northern New England. There is an appearance of an inverted trough signature in a subset of model guidance over the last couple cycles, given interaction between a more amplified northern stream wave and a bit more distant offshore southern stream low. This could factor into precipitation amounts and placement. The 00Z ensemble suites (European, GFS, Canadian, Euro AIFS) all now have at least some snow across the area Sunday into Sunday night. This continues the trend toward higher QPF/snow amounts in the last 3-4 model cycles. Still, the spread remains quite large with many ensemble members indicating little to no snow, while others do show significantly higher amounts. There are several variables at play here that likely won`t be resolved with much more clarity for another day or two. This will determine the difference between a couple of strung out waves passing through with little fanfare, a modestly impactful period of snow showers, and a more significant wintry precip event. Of note, the higher sun angle later in the season becomes a factor especially for lower elevations if precip occurs during the day. Cold air will also filtering into the region as the storm in question approaches, rather than being locked-in beforehand, which offers another layer of uncertainty in p-type.

fixed

MAYBE base the snow potential on the GFS Snow depth... so you are closer the end result than what you see from the 10:1 crazy stuff! LOL! The GFS is going to be the exaggerated fish story that people share! I agree the Euro upper levels look better. This has favored (at least in my mind) a miss with the best chance east and northeast. If anything, the Miller B was going to screw the middle area.... pull a Raliegh... but I think the amounts will be way less like most models are clearly indicating.. and the temps are not going to help accumulations... Maybe 12z does a dramatic change... it will likely be the GFS giving up its fantasy. The gfs has been on its own a lot this year. In a way, it has made us track longer than we should have. Thanks for the input from the Mets and the more thoughtful posters!

Like the trends

I think if the upper level is like gfs the upside is higher for more of the area.. But it is the gfs

We need constant improvement from each of the more trustworthy models from here forward

GFS! LOL!!!!!! YES! You are correct! BUT - we are always hopeful it somehow finds a nut! - We know it is on its own.. but it looks purdy!

Need something more to get excited.