midatlanticweather

You guys are relentless trolls. @GreyHat, the Ai models are too new to get too confident in them. But, I would say, they have been pretty wild at sniffing some stuff out. As of now, remain skeptical.. It has been bouncing too.. I do not think we have much confidence on anything next weekend... And models don't either.. Which is why we don't.. Lol

It will be in the Carolinas soon enough if that continues.. Wahh wahhh

WPC had quite the wetter outlook - I am certain it was based on earlier model runs. Just sharing.

Always! LOL! The area has a million ways to screw up a good-looking snowstorm pattern or even an event! I am always negative on this stuff. Sadly, the warm air seems to find its way in, even when models say it won't! I play "Debbie Downer" too many times. I also need to not share that too often.. because the region is not always easy to snow... but it can!

@GreyHat, I do not think I add a whole lot of help to discussions either. I do post infrequently but somewhat regularly. It is all the point. The way you phrase things matters. Question don't assert. Take everything as a way to learn and not tell people how they are wrong or right. Seriously.. Ask questions... Like, why would you think the GFS is wrong here? You know what.. You will understand more why we think it is a turd model many times. It just has not been consistent at all. Additionally, the Euro has had some challenges in the long range as well. We are all being interested in the new Ai stuff because it seems to have ideas on upper level patterns and has been helpful. Ensembles will help us in the long range.. Jumping verbatim on every model run is a curse we all can tend to have, so people curse the models and have fun or join the misery of missing snow. It is the posture of learning, being skeptical, asking questions, and non assertive or critical that helps this place be fun and worthwhile. And yes.. In the Mid Atlantic (and trends over the last few decades) the threat of warmth is not only real, it is a given. Getting a good clean snow in the mid Atlantic outside the mountains is getting harder. So we always know it. I always have doubts.. Even cold systems can do crazy things like sleet on you for 5 inches with temps in the low teens. Just take the posture of learning.. Asking questions, being no assertive, and also be considerate. Weather is a huge challenge no matter what. We all know it. That is my advice.. Not sure it helps

It is situations like this that make me wonder what the model keyed on to come up with the solution it did. I bet it overplayed something on one run vs the other and that item made all the difference in the outcome. What item that was is up for debate. I find it fascinating to see such wild swings.. I mean, I am not always sure I want a perfect run, I want to understand what caused it and is it even plausible. I guess that is why we check ensembles!

Clear as mud what will happen with that many outcome possibilities

Nice coating from that line. Pretty snow

Friend of mind just west of Richmond passed 4 inches of snow in super heavy snow. Over an inch an hour rates. This is the updated forecast down there.. We just missed it by 100 miles! Surprise snow!

Typically I would say this has a north trend written all over it. This year gives me a bit of pause.. Though I still think that.. But I think everyone has this concern. Still nice to track for now.

This looks ominous! Thread?

Met him when I was an intern back at the Super Storm in 1993 - Super smart guy that had to become a talking head for the NWS... was a wild time to be at the Camp Springs office back then!

We can hope. But usually when your idea the southern extent you get screwed... Unless you have a massive block that makes it slide south.. But it is still time to track.. So that is good

Waste your time.. We appreciate your input!!

Having some nostalgia at the moment. This place has given me so many lols and also a lot of wisdom from the Mets and very wise posters. Winters mean more because of it. The hunt and chase can be very fun and rewarding (even if heartbreaking) at times.