midatlanticweather

rain and snow mixed. 35.5 degrees. Lowest we had was 34.9 degrees a few hours ago.

Looks like the short term are seeing the norlun here. It seems to have shifted east since last night but was about there on the Euro as well.

38/29 - NAM norlun is just to my SW on this run. Was wider previously. Exact location TBD - This is when we should see tightening up on the west side for precipitation expansion (I think that is what others have said), so seeing it a little less this way is not a surprise, but it could just be noise!

I suspect a northern stream Miller B is more likely than a juiced Miller A in a Nina pattern. That has been a problem in Nina years.. I agree there are many other factors though and one storm behavior is not a Nina thing in and of itself. That is like a record low or high being used for climate change proof. It is so much more. But, this is not relevant here and likely this is banter

@MillvilleWx - This the area that you are watching for the norlun

Ya.. My backyard.. Lol. I am the eternal pessimist for western Loudoun. There is definitely going to be a gap and the effect of areas nearby losing out due to the way the dynamics work. Hoping to be in the good.. Bug close to being missed.. But too early to be that specific. Thanks for all the details

Why aren't we looking at the 3km? The 12km is a true NAMing..

The surface is way warm. The Kuchera should be checked and the actual snow depth. I suspect way worse

That H5 and track would indicate more precip north and west. Another good run by the gfs.

Gotta be careful! You do not want too much of a good thing.. because it can pump the warmth. I hope I eat my words

HA! Will he even get that reference??

DELMARVA disagrees. Still huge there. That jackpot just shifted

Inverted troughs are jumpy. Still has that feel of a rug pull east for the west guys. I think this has always been the risk, just seeing extra precip is good. Of note, 18z Euro also likes to play with our emotions. It did back with the Carolina storm.. Let's see models actually trend. Mr pessimist here.

I agree.