Albedoman

same to you. Whats upcoming? After carefully dissecting and analyzing the LR models., I am still going with a return of winter like patterns around the 8th-9th of January( maybe even small accumulating snow event) There will another brief warm up the following week, then winter hell will break loose like I said around MLK weekend(Jan17-20) in my earlier banter post. Why have I predicted this? The MJO will becoming out of Phase 4 and 5 into 7. This change most often produces a nice MIller A type (similar) storm event with the the expected pattern change . This evenings GFS model is already beginning to hint of the formation of a TN Valley LP screamer forming. MA forum is beginning to see these changes as well. Don S in his NYC metro posts sees this situation as well as JB. As a physical geographer/atmospheric sciences major for the past 40 years, I too see whats coming around the bend. stay tuned

you too. Winter will return as described in my last post. The one thing many will remember is MLK day time frame in 2020 as back to back snowstorms will occur. Remember where you heard this first.

winter is put on hold until jan 5-8. enjoy the mild temps the next two weeks

to my weather friends: Looks like the low pressure system is going inland instead of along the coast. This means much more wintry slop and less pure snow for Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. The 6-12 inches that I called for late last week is definitely off the table. It appears todays storm was a lake cutter where the low pressure system followed along the eastern Great Lakes up to Canada and brought us plain rain. This approaching storm on Monday will be an Appalachian runner where the low pressure system will be directly over us instead of being just off the coast. This pumps what a call only "refrigerator" and not "freezer" air over us and brings a major winter overrunning precipitation event. We first start off with a thump of 1-2 inches of snow then to a period of sleet and then a prolong period of freezing rain. Total snow/ sleet could be nearly 3 inches when compacted on the grass. Once the precip turns to freezing rain, it will pack down to just an inch of snow on the grass. The roads will be slushy at the most. What may happen is that a serious amount of freezing rain could occur if the cold air hangs out in the deeper valleys and we may see a winter weather advisory or even a winter freezing rain watch/warning. After this storm event passes it will remain dry and cold until around Christmas when another winter slop mess appears on the models. Will keep you informed.

to my weather friends. Are you enjoying the leftover snow and frigid temps today ? Gets in you the Christmas mood. Whats up next? The overrunning plot that I said would happen after yesterdays snow event in my last forecast appears to be happening on cue. A chance of freezing drizzle/rain and or sleet late Friday night into Saturday morning appears to be on the horizon. It should not be much as as the warm air quickly infiltrates all levels of the atmosphere and changes over to rain which will become heavy at times. The temps will agin warm up to the 50's. Another 1.5 to 2 inches of rain will cause flooding along the Little Lehigh Creek and low spots along Spring Creek Rd. Drive carefully The 6-12 inch snow event that I was talking about for midweek next week is still in the picture. It has not gone way. The models are having a very difficult time handling a Miller A type storm event as we have not seen one in many years. A Miller A type of winter storm event is when a low pressure travels up toward our area from the deep south. Placement of that low pressure can give us a lot of snow or simply go out into the Atlantic Ocean and miss us completely (a southern slider). The models are having a difficult time handling the upper area currents right now due to major changes in the upper atmosphere at this time of the year. Predicting when and where this low pressure sets up along the eastern seaboard is difficult so mid range modeling become somewhat unreliable for snow accumulations until we get within three days of the actual event. The fact that we are also on the rain/snow line line makes predicting this event even harder. so stay tune. If this event does happen the ground should be white all the way to Christmas day. There is also another chance of snow actually on Christmas day too.

I have decided to post my forecasts from my facebook page in the banter thread to stimulate some discussion. feel free to discuss and I welcome your opinions to my weather friends: still holding firm with my earlier forecast from last week. It will be warm tomorrow for this time of the year, maybe even hit 60 degrees before the front comes through in the evening with humid breezy SE wind. Then watch the temps plummet nearly 25 degrees after the passage of the cold front with perhaps a thundershower or brief heavy rain shower before changing to a moderate snow in the early morning with a stiff NW wind. My final call for snow accumulation on Wednesday morning snow event is 1-3 inches for the LV. If heavier bands set up between Philly and the LV, we could see some 4+ inch of snow in areas but most if not all will be on the grass. If the snow rates are also heavy enough though it will accumulate on the roads even though they are wet and somewhat warm now.. I still expect a winter weather advisory for Wednesday morning to be issued so please drive carefully. The snow flakes could be huge with good dendritic growth in the heavier snow bands. Anything on the roads will freeze Wednesday evening as highs on Thursday will barely reach freezing and overnight lows in the upper teens. It will feel like winter on Thursday, believe me with a cold wind chill in the air and the ground covered in snow. Long range models are pointing to another possible more significant snow event around the 18-19th time frame. Initial model runs indicate 6-12 inches of snow. This amount could give us a white Christmas. Still too early to say for sure but of course I will keep you informed. This storm is exhibiting the same character and path of a good "benchmark storm" which puts the coastal low in a prime spot for eastern PA to get a significant snow storm. We will see.

watch out for next week 6-12 incher at the benchmark coming your way

It would be more lively if Lehigh Valley and the rest of Eastern PA were welcomed as part of this region. Many posters in this Philly and NY regions consider those who live in the LV outsiders with no home even though over 1 million people live in the Lehigh, Northampton, Carbon and Berks counties. Its strange but we are the third largest metro area in PA with no identity by the American Weather Forum yet the Poconos lies in our area and we are the fastest growing area in the state. There are more people who live in our metro area than some of the U S states. With the geography of our area, widespread different precip types along with different amounts of precip occur every winter. Stop and think why EPAWA does so well here- because Mt Holly and even the American Forum fails to recognize that we are third most populous area in the state with a wide range of physical geography. Every day like others , I must go to the NY metro area, or Mid Atlantic area or even the upstate NY/PA area. Why can't the American Weather forum rename Philly area and call it the Eastern PA forum? That would help bring more posters to this regional weather forum. If you take Philly and the LV areas along , we are talking more population than most of the regions put together. I say rename the forum to Eastern PA and watch it come back to life. Otherwise it, will continue to be abysmal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehigh_Valley