Albedoman

wow, this was just posted in the PA forum. I guess I hit the mark about Lake Erie and the analog year.

for my friends in the NYC forum from the Lehigh Valley: wondering how crappy a winter can be, especially this one? This link should be bring back memories for all and there is some hope that you may get some heavy snowfalls around Valentines day.. https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html

yes we are close and I will agree with that but the better chances of Miller A's formations usually start popping a week or so later once we get to that end of that COD point as the subtropical jet tends to open for business. I will try to remember to my past weather experiences in this situation and say if I had to pick an analog year, it would be 1994-95 as further described from this NYC site: More good weather historical info here. https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html The date and amount of snow tend to match up pretty well to this winter thus far. Waiting for the big one in the next few weeks. WINTER OF 1994-95 Feb. 4, 1995 - Only 11.8" of snow fell during this winter and almost all of it fell today as 10.8" of heavy, wet snow fell furiously on a Saturday morning (close to three inches fell between 6-7AM) before changing over to rain at around 9AM. Then the coldest air of the winter moved in overnight, flash-freezing the slush.

The MJO never did die in 6 but floundered in 7/8 to the COD . I stated this on Jan 6. this is what I posted a few days ago to my facebook site: ===== after looking at this evenings LR weather models, I am not going to officially kill off winter but it appears to be dying a slow death. The minor snow event tonight and the spittle of snow tomorrow will be a distant memory by next weekend with all of the forecasted rain and highs near 50 degrees. There is real good chance that if we do get a major weather pattern turn around by Valentines Day, this winter will under 10 inches of snow for the LV. This lack of snow cover for sufficient ground water recharge could lead to drought conditions into late spring. I feel for the ski resorts and the contractors who rely on snow removal for their income but its going to get worse before it gets any better. The temps will warm up above freezing for highs by Friday and will stay that way for the foreseeable future. Whats even worse is that this warmth goes all the way to the Great Lakes and upper midwest and Lake Erie may not even freeze over this year. My current thoughts: MJO will reemerge out of the COD just before Valentines Day heading for 7/8. Thats when the tracking of potential storm fun begins. Thats what I meant when I said the parade of Miller A's show up on the models. Until then, we will be constantly tracking this threading the needle storm crap until we finally get a hit. The people below the fall line will see nada unless we get an actual "thread the needle" storm event. The LV- wintry mix will continue to define this winter. My initial LR groundhogs day forecast from several weeks ago for nearly a foot of snow on the ground in the LV - I am still holding onto that with the hopes that one of the thread the need LP systems sits near the bench mark long enough to feed us some decent moisture for snow development and that dynamic cooling dumps aids in the creation of wet heavy snow on us. Without both of these conditions t the same time, it does not look hopeful for at least a normal winter snowfall for E. PA.

I live in Ancient Oaks West near Rt 100. My backyard is the Little Lehigh Creek and its watershed. For those who do not know, the best trout stream to run through an urbanized area in the country, home of most of the major water bottlers , coke syrup production , juices and of course beer production. The water is so clean, that even Pierre bottles here. Anyway, those dates you had mentioned is what I called "Production Dates" and yes, that is when most weather pattern changes occur in our region. You may even have noticed them in the video. The most significant dates are around Pearl Harbor and MLK days. Cannot explain why except that is when the weather pattern changes most often occur in this time period. As far 94 goes I fully agree that the constant barrage of ice storms on top of existing snow packed roads were major issues as they serve to complicate by creating glaciers that seem to never melt. Thanks Hurricane Agnes for refreshing my memory of this horrid driving period. You were spot on.

Here is something of how and why I base my LR predictions on past weather events. While it is no way perfect, weather history IMHO is still essential to accurately predict long range events. Until recently, I could never substantiate how well my memory was on how certain weather patterns that were in place at the time of actual snow depth on the ground. Many younger posters will vividly remember 1996 and 2010 as big storms in the area. KU events tend to stand out. I personally experienced 1987, 1993, 1999 and so on. But the one winter year that stands out far more than any other is January 21, 1994- March 28 1994 where it was so cold and the snow depth on the ground was high and even the roads had constant ruts where snow and ice never melted for days. This video below is perfect way of how I try to match up weather history of snow depth with actual daily weather patterns. If someone would create a program to match of the daily MJO with this video, it would be a good start in helping everyone to understand the upcoming evolution of certain weather patterns. Simply model hugging every six hour run of the GFS and NAM and 12 hr runs of the Euro and CMC will drive a person insane and is not an accurate sole indicator of ever changing weather patterns. The atmosphere is dynamically fluid and so are the computer models, especially the last several years as evident by constant changes in the GFS model alone. They are guidance tools just like satellite imagery to help form an accurate daily forecast. To rely just on the daily computer generated models to predict long range forecasting is ill advised IMHO. Weather history is also not fluid nor is it the sole reason for expecting major weather pattern changes. But when combine with synoptic daily weather forecasting, long range forecasting becomes much more reliable. Many old timers like me use weather history to generate our thoughts for producing long range predictions and not just rely on computer generated models like the MJO. When I first was involved in weather in the late 1970's , computers generated models were only available at NOAA in MD. Everything else was hand generated with only three - five day max forecasting available with little satellite imagery. I remember getting blank maps of the US and having to hand draw fronts, isotherms, isobars etc on the maps and turn them over to my professors to be graded on accurate they were based on the weekly plots by NOAA from Md. Yes, hand drawn using data generated by balloons etc and airport weather stations. Yes I admit, I am old fart but I would not have any other way. Weather history plays a vital role and I still heavily rely on it. Many of todays meteorologists use weather history primarily for daily and annual comparisons for extremes. When I was first predicting long range forecasting for my family and friends, I used past weather history in determining a more accurate daily weather forecast. We have come a long way in the past 40 years. Have fun with the video

Ralph, I have stated this since Dec 19, 2019. Some of my LR posts were on Facebook in my closed group and never made it on here as I have been reluctant to post here. I will try to place them all on this site in the future. Yes, this storm for saturday was the predecessor for a much larger one later next week that I have been calling for. This typically happens in this type of pattern change as 40+ years of weather experience has taught me and not just hugging every model run. While this mornings LR models are spitting out 24+ inches, I certainly say that is the outlier right now. I am still holding firm to at least a foot or more of snow on the ground for the varmint to see his shadow on Feb 2. Just be prepared for bone chilling temps the next few weeks compared to what we have seen thus far this winter.

my first call --- 3-6 inches of snow/sleet in LV with frizzle to form a crunch. Then the arctic air sets in with temps not above freezing after Sunday evening for at least the next 5 days or so. The second and bigger storm event comes on or before the 27-30th period, which puts a foot+ of snow on the ground before Groundhogs day. On cue as the pattern changes and the MJO heads toward the COD

the only thing I noticed is that there will much more cold air to work with than previous storms this winter which means the ground will below freezing this time. Accumulation will be almost immediate on the roads where not treated and on the grass. Lots of brine being applied for Friday, thats for sure. Maybe more lift and banding as the warm front comes through Saturday will enable more snow accumulation. Soundings should be interesting as more Pacific data is sampled as the LP gets on shore by wednesday evening.

Finally something to track this holiday weekend - post your thoughts here

My long range forecasting for this winter is still on cue. Dec 19, I stated that winter would return between 1/5-8/2020. It indeed did with several light 1-2 inch snows. The we got this brief warmup this weekend which was expected. The quote above was made on Christmas Eve. Looks like a significant overrunnning event on Sat-Sun this upcoming MLK weekend. The models have been consistent with a 6-12 inch amount. I would say at this point this amount looks reasonable with an inch or so of sleet topped off with a freezing rain/frizzle crust on Sunday morning to make it a real bitch to shovel. Snow blowers will be worth their weight in gold this weekend. The potential for lot of heart attacks exist as many will have over exerted themselves from not being used to shovel this heavy slop. I also stated that there would be a foot of snow on the ground by Ground Hogs day. This LR forecast is still looking good as we swing out MJO 7/8 toward the COD. This transitional period will set up the stage for the overall pattern change by the end of MLK week for another potential snow event with significantly colder temps with high barely making the 20's with overnight lows (radiational nighttime cooling )from the snow on the ground to temps near zero or colder. Winter will have finally arrived. Whats in my LR forecast after next week? Past weather history for our area tells me of 2-3 weeks of transitional warmups but with brief but brutal cold shots with clippers. There is also several potential storms to follow, mainly after Ground Hogs day and beyond to Valentines Day. After Valentines day, I think we will get at least one more big snow event before a slow warming trend to the ides of March. Miller A's are sill on tap during this transitional period.

thanks guys. I hope the mods get together and make the change. Having a map on each page showing the regional NOAAoffice locations and their counties of where a new poster should be posting would help. Lots of great map makers on the this forum when it comes to colorful graphics. Each forum could make up its own map and show specific cities and locations of each poster. Transparency is the key to make this site more interactive. By the way, I said over a month ago about MLK week and back to back storms and the MJO to 7/8 for awhile. I also staed a week ago about a foot of snow on the ground by ground hogs day. I still see this as a good bet. BY the way Ralph stated about 94 redux. That is a damn good possibility with ruts in the roads from snow not melting. Been a long time coming and many drivers have forgotten how to drive in ruts.

Sorry Ralph, because if I post in the other threads, good ideas tend to get shot down real quick by snow weenies. Months ago, posters were complaining that the Philly forum gets crapped on with hardly any posters. LV posters have no home and get belittled and besmirched in the other forums There is a million people in the LV/Berks valley metro area yet everyone is concerned about the I-95 corridor. By putting legitimate talking points in the banter, this may wake up other posters that there are really knowledgeable and atmospheric degree posters in this forum who are either afraid to speak their forecasting thoughts only to be crushed by know-it all snow weenies who just model hug. Putting posts in this banter helps keeps an open minded forum as everyone likes reading banter from time to time. Plus it gave me a home to discuss my thoughts without interfering with I-95 corridor people discussion about every model run. Maybe the forums should also be divided up by regional offices instead of major cities- Upton , Mt Holly, State College, Washington DC etc to make it easier for posters to know where to post too for observations and local concerns and long range discussions and to follow regional discussions by the appropriate NOAA offices. It makes sense and gives the professional meteorologists in the regional offices a quick synopsis of local conditions too when severe weather is involved.

Mersky, feel free to join me in Philly region Banter thread forum with Wiggum. At least good conversation is struck with retired meteorologists like you and me. Posting in this thread will only get you in trouble. Please read my posts the last 2 months- then base your thoughts on mine- identical. Let the snow weeenie know it alls have their say in this forum. Challenging them will only make it worse.

Its coming around to my thinking. Notice the TN Valley screamer coming this way on the LR GFS models as well. Fun times ahead. If I was a betting man- a foot of snow on the ground by Groundhogs Day. Where this a pattern change- watch out and this will be a huge pattern change.

A few days ago this wasn’t shown to get out of phase 5 before going into the COD. Now it’s higher amplitude is getting it into 6 with members now showing it going into 7 then 8. It will keep correcting our in time.

reminds of this quote for grades as our snowfall totals in E. PA LMAO

this comes from another respectable meteorologist D Southerland - who is also seeing what I am seeing in the pattern change during MLK week .----Since 1974, the overwhelming majority (88%) of cases that saw the MJO peak in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-15 period progressed to Phases 7 and 8. Until the MJO plots are within 7 days or so, I believe the base case is just such a progression.

the best radar is radar express. I also use Channel 69 wfmz as they have up to date audible warnings of severe weather- pretty neat. I also use accu weather for the same reason. I actually changed my notification sound to an air raid siren for tornado warnings and or you can have a message like you have mail sound. I have links to tropical tidbits and IA state meteogram for approaching storm events for dissection and analyzing. If I need satellites and or other info weather discussion etc, storm reports, go to MT holly page or accu weather.

yes, that is what is forecasted now but weather history dictates that a high amplitude six death spiral will not occur that quickly. There will be a time where part of it will be in the 7/8 near the COD. Its this pattern change near 7/8 where the MIller A's will pop. 40 + years of weather watching is telling me this. The GOM will open up for business for a short time.

list the apps please that you have

For you New Yorker snow weenies: An inch of snow on the ground at Macungie PA- Lehigh Valley. Looks good for you too

Nearly an inch of snow now. Moderate snow- ground covered completely in Macungie

well on cue winter has returned tonight on Jan 5th, Currently snowing in Macungie. Expect a dusting to half inch tonight with maybe an inch or two Wed. Then it melts and we return to spring temps on the weekend. MJO expected to go into phase 7/8 by MLK week still. With pattern change, still seein the poential for MIller A's being tracked shortly before MLK. Its coming, like a thief in the night.