Albedoman

a significan t snowfall event still shows up at 3-6 in wet snow for the LV in a (19th-22) at the 12z GFS model run. Still keeping my eye on it as the snow potential is still there. Call me a weenie but the chances are really there and the continuous blocking pattern that are in and waited all winter for will not leave. The Easter Monday severe storm potential - tons of straight line wind damage setup clearly depicts this storm setup for the next potential wild storm event for late next weekend and maybe even snow.

repetitive GFS model runs in the last few days indicate wet snow possible next weekend 18-19th time frame. I know there is a cold bias with the GFS but with a deep cold pool LP sitting near us, I cannot discount a "tulip snowfall event" from happening. It would be real ironic that the heaviest snowfall in three months occurs after Easter. Expect the unexpected.

please go back to school. We did have convection. You can have convection without producing thunder and lightning. There were severe t- storm warnings issued and an EF1 tornado . You do not need thunder and lighting to create convection. Why must you insist on challenging me? Do have nothing better else to talk about other than wishing for a snow storm? Convection – When warm, moist air near the surface rises to be above the heavier cool, dry air this is a form of heat transfer or convection. The rising motion typically cools the air. As the air cools, it reaches the dewpoint and all of the moisture in the air condenses– forming clouds. Depending on many factors, these clouds can form rain and even thunderstorms. The process of falling rain is caused by convection. Dry Convection – The type of convection not associated with storms is called dry convection. This occurs when warm air at the surface rises to be above the cooler air overhead. Because there is no moisture, this typically doesn’t have cloud cover associated with it.

Tornado Warning Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 947 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 DEC003-NJC015-033-PAC029-045-071515- /O.CON.KPHI.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200207T1515Z/ New Castle DE-Salem NJ-Gloucester NJ-Chester PA-Delaware PA- 947 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EST FOR NORTHERN NEW CASTLE...NORTHWESTERN SALEM...NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER... SOUTHEASTERN CHESTER AND SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES... At 947 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Stanton, or near Newark, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Wilmington, Newark, Chester, Pennsville, Westtown, Carneys Point, Elsmere, New Castle, Penns Grove, Newport, Arden, Stanton, Cheyney, North Star, Talleyville, Wilmington Manor, Elam, Pike Creek, Chelsea and Ashland. This includes the following highways... Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 6 and 14. Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 4. Interstate 95 in Delaware between mile markers 5 and 23. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3996 7553 3995 7552 3978 7526 3963 7568 3975 7580 TIME...MOT...LOC 1447Z 241DEG 43KT 3972 7566 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ Staarmann Severe Weather Statement Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 947 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 DEC003-NJC015-033-PAC029-045-071515- /O.CON.KPHI.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200207T1515Z/ New Castle DE-Salem NJ-Gloucester NJ-Chester PA-Delaware PA- 947 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EST FOR NORTHERN NEW CASTLE...NORTHWESTERN SALEM...NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER... SOUTHEASTERN CHESTER AND SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES... At 947 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Stanton, or near Newark, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Wilmington, Newark, Chester, Pennsville, Westtown, Carneys Point, Elsmere, New Castle, Penns Grove, Newport, Arden, Stanton, Cheyney, North Star, Talleyville, Wilmington Manor, Elam, Pike Creek, Chelsea and Ashland. This includes the following highways... Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 6 and 14. Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 4. Interstate 95 in Delaware between mile markers 5 and 23. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3996 7553 3995 7552 3978 7526 3963 7568 3975 7580 TIME...MOT...LOC 1447Z 241DEG 43KT 3972 7566 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ Staarmann Severe Weather Statement Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 946 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 DEC003-MDC015-029-PAC011-029-045-091-071455- /O.EXP.KPHI.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200207T1445Z/ New Castle DE-Kent MD-Cecil MD-Berks PA-Montgomery PA-Chester PA- Delaware PA- 946 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 ...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN NEW CASTLE... NORTHEASTERN KENT...CECIL...EASTERN BERKS...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...CHESTER AND WEST CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED... The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area. Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire. However gusty winds are still possible with these thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorm warnings remain in effect for eastern portions of the warning LAT...LON 3973 7610 3976 7606 3987 7599 3995 7600 4004 7593 4011 7594 4014 7588 4031 7615 4059 7576 4034 7536 3937 7571 3931 7618 3942 7600 3952 7598 3955 7608 3972 7623 TIME...MOT...LOC 1445Z 228DEG 52KT 4055 7557 4018 7553 3971 7570 $$ NC Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning NJC019-041-PAC011-017-029-077-091-095-071545- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0006.200207T1443Z-200207T1545Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 943 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey... Southwestern Warren County in northwestern New Jersey... Eastern Berks County in eastern Pennsylvania... Lehigh County in eastern Pennsylvania... Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Northeastern Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania... * Until 1045 AM EST. * At 942 AM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Bally to near Lionville-Marchwood, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Allentown, Easton, Bethlehem, Pottstown, Phoenixville, Lansdale, West Norriton, Forks, East Norriton, Emmaus, Northampton, Quakertown, Perkasie, Doylestown, Byram, Wilson, Downingtown, Souderton, Bedminster and Washington. This includes the following highways... Interstate 78 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 17. Interstate 80 in New Jersey between mile markers 2 and 4. Interstate 78 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 41 and 76. Pennsylvania Turnpike between exits 312 and 320. Northeast Extension between exits A31 and A56. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Wind damage with these storms will occur before any rain or lightning. Do not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 4043 7475 4041 7481 4038 7481 4038 7486 4035 7486 4034 7493 4033 7492 3999 7572 4055 7583 4075 7574 4078 7565 4083 7538 4086 7529 4090 7523 4093 7522 4097 7512 TIME...MOT...LOC 1442Z 233DEG 40KT 4046 7563 4002 7563 HAIL...0.75IN WIND...70MPH $$ Staarmann Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning DEC003-MDC015-029-NJC015-033-PAC029-045-091-101-071515- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0005.200207T1436Z-200207T1515Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 936 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... New Castle County in northern Delaware... Northeastern Kent County in northeastern Maryland... Southeastern Cecil County in northeastern Maryland... Salem County in southern New Jersey... Northwestern Gloucester County in southern New Jersey... Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Southeastern Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Philadelphia County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 1015 AM EST. * At 936 AM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Marshallton to Elkton to Kennedyville, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Philadelphia, Camden, Wilmington, Newark, Middletown, West Chester, Elkton, Norristown, Chester, West Deptford, West Norriton, East Norriton, Pennsville, Yeadon, Westtown, Woodbury, Carneys Point, Downingtown, Conshohocken and Hatboro. This includes the following highways... Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 23. Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 23. New Jersey Turnpike between exits 1 and 2. Interstate 95 in Delaware between mile markers 0 and 23. Interstate 476 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 19. Pennsylvania Turnpike between exits 320 and 343. Northeast Extension near exit A20. Interstate 676 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 1. Interstate 76 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 327 and 351. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 3957 7579 3997 7578 4024 7518 4019 7510 3992 7513 3950 7532 3946 7537 3945 7542 3940 7541 3936 7576 3938 7578 3936 7589 3938 7596 TIME...MOT...LOC 1436Z 243DEG 42KT 3995 7570 3962 7581 3931 7600 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...0.75IN WIND...70MPH $$ Staarmann Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 805 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 DEZ002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-021-PAZ060>062- 101>105-081315- Kent-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris- Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Cumberland-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton- Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery- Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks- 805 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northeast Maryland, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. $$ Wind Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 408 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ008>010-012-015>019-021- PAZ070-071-101>106-072200- /O.CON.KPHI.WI.Y.0005.200207T1300Z-200208T0000Z/ New Castle-Kent-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Morris- Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden- Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Delaware-Philadelphia- Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery- Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Elkton, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Millville, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown 408 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Southwest to west winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Most of New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and most of Delaware. * WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening. An initial surge of strong winds will be between 9 AM and 12 PM, with a secondary surge between 1 PM and 4 PM. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and some power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$

Just issued a severe thunderstorm warning for us. Glad I started this . More fun to track than snow but we will get that later Pressure is really low- almost 93 superstorm low Severe Thunderstorm Warning NJC019-041-PAC011-017-029-077-091-095-071545- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0006.200207T1443Z-200207T1545Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 943 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey... Southwestern Warren County in northwestern New Jersey... Eastern Berks County in eastern Pennsylvania... Lehigh County in eastern Pennsylvania... Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Northeastern Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania... * Until 1045 AM EST. * At 942 AM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Bally to near Lionville-Marchwood, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Allentown, Easton, Bethlehem, Pottstown, Phoenixville, Lansdale, West Norriton, Forks, East Norriton, Emmaus, Northampton, Quakertown, Perkasie, Doylestown, Byram, Wilson, Downingtown, Souderton, Bedminster and Washington. This includes the following highways... Interstate 78 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 17. Interstate 80 in New Jersey between mile markers 2 and 4. Interstate 78 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 41 and 76. Pennsylvania Turnpike between exits 312 and 320. Northeast Extension between exits A31 and A56.

woopie ===looks like t storm a good bet this morning with the passage of the front. Watch out for the flash freeze damaging winds and blowing snow?

lots of rain coming this way. T- storms a good bet

as per Mt Holly this morning--- we track since no big snows seen as of yet Due to the heavy rain falling on top of already wet soil we could certainly have some nuisance flooding and significant rises on local area small rivers and streams. If widespread rainfall totals reach or exceed 2 inches then additional flooding would be possible. Given that the axis of heaviest rain may occur near and especially east of I-95, held off on any flood watches. Event rainfall totals are forecast to be 1.5-2.5 inches with local amounts close to 3 inches. In addition, at least some guidance shows a little instability developing primarily across portions of Delmarva early Friday morning as the surface low passes nearby and ahead of the cold front. The soundings look on the moist side which may result in rather limited instability, however given the robust wind fields this will have to be watched. Some high-resolution guidance suggests that Delmarva could be on the northern extent of a possible squall line. Given less than ideal instability forecast for lightning production, opted to leave a thunder mention out for now. The greater chance for some thunder looks to be south of our area.

Latest Mt Holly discussion-----------------Thursday night into Friday the low over the central United States will finally swing east and take on a negative tilt. The ECMWF, GFS, and CMC all show slightly different solutions here. The GFS has surface low pressure heading northeast over the coastal plain of NJ. The ECMWF has the low heading northeast towards Ontario. The CMC is a hybrid of the two. Either way, wet weather looks to persist into Friday. The latest run of the GEFS shows a widespread 1 to 2" possible for the Wednesday through Friday period, while the EPS run has totals closer to two inches. Saturday, drier weather will return with another upper level low approaching from the west. Potential for some good flooding at least

Well, nothing better than tracking legit t- storm chances in February rather then tracking GFS 10 day fantasy snow storms in a miserable snow producing pattern. Lets see if we can get flood warnings to t- storms in this crazy pattern since there is way more more warm air available to produce flooding rains and t-storms than cold air to produce heavy snow. Lets start off this topic by discussing this afternoons Mt Holly discussion about the triple point threat- always a severe t-storm in late April for us when we get into this situation. Lets see if we can manage some serious discussion about this particular threat along with above normal temps. Time to get off the snow-deprived train. By Friday, a kicker shortwave will ride southeastward across the Plains and finally push the stalled trough along. At the surface, this will translate to a final push as a more noticeable surface low forms across the Southeast and pushes up the I-95 corridor Friday, with the triple point moving directly over our area. This will not come as anything different than what we`ve seen thus far this winter with another unfavorable storm track for appreciable snow fall. No significant snowfall is forecast for the next seven days. We`ll just have to maintain patience for now.

ground hogs day needle storm is kaput. My foot of snow for the LV has died on the vine- a slow miserable death. If we are lucky 1-2 inches that will melt as fast it fell if we get even receive any frozen precip at all. Valentines day week, the last gasp of a pattern change and maybe a 10 day fantasy storm as demonstrated by the models again this morning is like taking your last dying breath otherwise this winter will go down in the record book. I am getting real concerned that we could get" Marched On" with the spring vegetation popping up and blooming so early by the end of next week. One good extreme freeze from a short cold snap and spring flowers and blooms will take an ass kicking. Also , having a foot of snow on blooming daffodils is not good if it is followed by arctic air for a week. Even though I said the analog year was 94-95 for this year, this season reminds me a lot of happened in 93 before the superstorm. While I am not saying we will have another one, the potential really exists for one of the Miller As to be a real good snow producer if the pattern changes after Valentines day FWIW.

The only changes to my initial thoughts of the the Ground hog day beheading storm event of being a foot of snow for us is unlikely but more realistic of a half of that amount as it stands right now. (Snow weenie in me). I will start watching ther models more when better and more reliable sampling comes are ingested into the models for Wednesday into Thursday and once the LP gets closer or over the continental divide. The parade of Miller A's still may happen even though the -AO must get into place if even for a little time. I agree with Ralph that next week looks very promising for a good coastal as some blocking is appearing on the LR models. Analog year still looks like 94-95. We just cannot get the long shots of Arctic cold air as the the progressive and transient cold air shot patterns are the dominant feature this winter. In this type of pattern though, it stands to reason that I am much more excited about a very active weather pattern for severe t- storms in mid-late April into May for the entire eastern US as in 1995. yes we are close and I will agree with that but the better chances of Miller A's formations usually start popping a week or so later once we get to that end of that COD point as the subtropical jet tends to open for business. I will try to remember to my past weather experiences in this situation and say if I had to pick an analog year, it would be 1994-95 as further described from this NYC site: More good weather historical info here. https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html The date and amount of snow tend to match up pretty well to this winter thus far. Waiting for the big one in the next few weeks. WINTER OF 1994-95 Feb. 4, 1995 - Only 11.8" of snow fell during this winter and almost all of it fell today as 10.8" of heavy, wet snow fell furiously on a Saturday morning (close to three inches fell between 6-7AM) before changing over to rain at around 9AM. Then the coldest air of the winter moved in overnight, flash-freezing the slush.

I absolutely agree with this synopsis. A bunch of rookies with no meteorological educational background. My cat does a better job then they do. They are paid to read the scripts from "Accuwrong" --thats it. Every time I see that dam commercial publicizing that "schools look to be closed with the fake and over exited kids on dope, I just want to scream.

wow, this was just posted in the PA forum. I guess I hit the mark about Lake Erie and the analog year.

for my friends in the NYC forum from the Lehigh Valley: wondering how crappy a winter can be, especially this one? This link should be bring back memories for all and there is some hope that you may get some heavy snowfalls around Valentines day.. https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html

yes we are close and I will agree with that but the better chances of Miller A's formations usually start popping a week or so later once we get to that end of that COD point as the subtropical jet tends to open for business. I will try to remember to my past weather experiences in this situation and say if I had to pick an analog year, it would be 1994-95 as further described from this NYC site: More good weather historical info here. https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html The date and amount of snow tend to match up pretty well to this winter thus far. Waiting for the big one in the next few weeks. WINTER OF 1994-95 Feb. 4, 1995 - Only 11.8" of snow fell during this winter and almost all of it fell today as 10.8" of heavy, wet snow fell furiously on a Saturday morning (close to three inches fell between 6-7AM) before changing over to rain at around 9AM. Then the coldest air of the winter moved in overnight, flash-freezing the slush.

The MJO never did die in 6 but floundered in 7/8 to the COD . I stated this on Jan 6. this is what I posted a few days ago to my facebook site: ===== after looking at this evenings LR weather models, I am not going to officially kill off winter but it appears to be dying a slow death. The minor snow event tonight and the spittle of snow tomorrow will be a distant memory by next weekend with all of the forecasted rain and highs near 50 degrees. There is real good chance that if we do get a major weather pattern turn around by Valentines Day, this winter will under 10 inches of snow for the LV. This lack of snow cover for sufficient ground water recharge could lead to drought conditions into late spring. I feel for the ski resorts and the contractors who rely on snow removal for their income but its going to get worse before it gets any better. The temps will warm up above freezing for highs by Friday and will stay that way for the foreseeable future. Whats even worse is that this warmth goes all the way to the Great Lakes and upper midwest and Lake Erie may not even freeze over this year. My current thoughts: MJO will reemerge out of the COD just before Valentines Day heading for 7/8. Thats when the tracking of potential storm fun begins. Thats what I meant when I said the parade of Miller A's show up on the models. Until then, we will be constantly tracking this threading the needle storm crap until we finally get a hit. The people below the fall line will see nada unless we get an actual "thread the needle" storm event. The LV- wintry mix will continue to define this winter. My initial LR groundhogs day forecast from several weeks ago for nearly a foot of snow on the ground in the LV - I am still holding onto that with the hopes that one of the thread the need LP systems sits near the bench mark long enough to feed us some decent moisture for snow development and that dynamic cooling dumps aids in the creation of wet heavy snow on us. Without both of these conditions t the same time, it does not look hopeful for at least a normal winter snowfall for E. PA.

I live in Ancient Oaks West near Rt 100. My backyard is the Little Lehigh Creek and its watershed. For those who do not know, the best trout stream to run through an urbanized area in the country, home of most of the major water bottlers , coke syrup production , juices and of course beer production. The water is so clean, that even Pierre bottles here. Anyway, those dates you had mentioned is what I called "Production Dates" and yes, that is when most weather pattern changes occur in our region. You may even have noticed them in the video. The most significant dates are around Pearl Harbor and MLK days. Cannot explain why except that is when the weather pattern changes most often occur in this time period. As far 94 goes I fully agree that the constant barrage of ice storms on top of existing snow packed roads were major issues as they serve to complicate by creating glaciers that seem to never melt. Thanks Hurricane Agnes for refreshing my memory of this horrid driving period. You were spot on.

Here is something of how and why I base my LR predictions on past weather events. While it is no way perfect, weather history IMHO is still essential to accurately predict long range events. Until recently, I could never substantiate how well my memory was on how certain weather patterns that were in place at the time of actual snow depth on the ground. Many younger posters will vividly remember 1996 and 2010 as big storms in the area. KU events tend to stand out. I personally experienced 1987, 1993, 1999 and so on. But the one winter year that stands out far more than any other is January 21, 1994- March 28 1994 where it was so cold and the snow depth on the ground was high and even the roads had constant ruts where snow and ice never melted for days. This video below is perfect way of how I try to match up weather history of snow depth with actual daily weather patterns. If someone would create a program to match of the daily MJO with this video, it would be a good start in helping everyone to understand the upcoming evolution of certain weather patterns. Simply model hugging every six hour run of the GFS and NAM and 12 hr runs of the Euro and CMC will drive a person insane and is not an accurate sole indicator of ever changing weather patterns. The atmosphere is dynamically fluid and so are the computer models, especially the last several years as evident by constant changes in the GFS model alone. They are guidance tools just like satellite imagery to help form an accurate daily forecast. To rely just on the daily computer generated models to predict long range forecasting is ill advised IMHO. Weather history is also not fluid nor is it the sole reason for expecting major weather pattern changes. But when combine with synoptic daily weather forecasting, long range forecasting becomes much more reliable. Many old timers like me use weather history to generate our thoughts for producing long range predictions and not just rely on computer generated models like the MJO. When I first was involved in weather in the late 1970's , computers generated models were only available at NOAA in MD. Everything else was hand generated with only three - five day max forecasting available with little satellite imagery. I remember getting blank maps of the US and having to hand draw fronts, isotherms, isobars etc on the maps and turn them over to my professors to be graded on accurate they were based on the weekly plots by NOAA from Md. Yes, hand drawn using data generated by balloons etc and airport weather stations. Yes I admit, I am old fart but I would not have any other way. Weather history plays a vital role and I still heavily rely on it. Many of todays meteorologists use weather history primarily for daily and annual comparisons for extremes. When I was first predicting long range forecasting for my family and friends, I used past weather history in determining a more accurate daily weather forecast. We have come a long way in the past 40 years. Have fun with the video

Ralph, I have stated this since Dec 19, 2019. Some of my LR posts were on Facebook in my closed group and never made it on here as I have been reluctant to post here. I will try to place them all on this site in the future. Yes, this storm for saturday was the predecessor for a much larger one later next week that I have been calling for. This typically happens in this type of pattern change as 40+ years of weather experience has taught me and not just hugging every model run. While this mornings LR models are spitting out 24+ inches, I certainly say that is the outlier right now. I am still holding firm to at least a foot or more of snow on the ground for the varmint to see his shadow on Feb 2. Just be prepared for bone chilling temps the next few weeks compared to what we have seen thus far this winter.

my first call --- 3-6 inches of snow/sleet in LV with frizzle to form a crunch. Then the arctic air sets in with temps not above freezing after Sunday evening for at least the next 5 days or so. The second and bigger storm event comes on or before the 27-30th period, which puts a foot+ of snow on the ground before Groundhogs day. On cue as the pattern changes and the MJO heads toward the COD

the only thing I noticed is that there will much more cold air to work with than previous storms this winter which means the ground will below freezing this time. Accumulation will be almost immediate on the roads where not treated and on the grass. Lots of brine being applied for Friday, thats for sure. Maybe more lift and banding as the warm front comes through Saturday will enable more snow accumulation. Soundings should be interesting as more Pacific data is sampled as the LP gets on shore by wednesday evening.

Finally something to track this holiday weekend - post your thoughts here