Albedoman

Your post indicates only emphasizes one thing -CONTINUED SERIOUS DROUGHT SITUATION- and a bad one at that. Without heavy snowfalls in the next few weeks, we are in a world of hurt. As a professional hydrologist, the continued freezing temps with little to no snow melt, huge amounts of snow being sublimated and the ground water table falling because of no recharge with frozen soils and well pumping, we are in serious trouble for this spring. I hope state officials are aware of this problem because the media sure as hell does not care. They only care about the insignificant snow events and the bitter cold. and how it affects social issues and event. When peoples wells run dry, then maybe they will spend time on water supply issues.

I posted a response to another's concern about birding. This just happened. A red tail hawk hit my front window and was stunned. This is getting unbelievable. Last night low was -2 here in macungie with almost 8 in of snow on the ground.

Here in Lower macungie, just outside of Alburtis we had some wicked but nice localized snow banding. When the first band came through around 3 pm the flakes were pancake size and lasted for over an hour. It was snowing at 2-3 inch per hour rates for nearly 1.5 hours. The another band came through around 5 pm and dropped some more heavy snow 1 inch per hour rates but the fluff factor with the snow flake was noticeably diminished I ended up with 7.8 inches. The banding was expected and was a huge difference. The RGEM as well as final Mt Holly snow map showed the banding right over me. Below was my original forecast from days ago as stuck with the RGEM and my past experiences with these type of snow pattern events. The CMC has been holding strong and consistent this entire week for Sunday- Monday event, I find that refreshing. The GFS has been floundering and the Euro came back toward the CMC solution. The totals have been all over the place but it appears 6-8+ in may come more into line later tonight IMHO. I would post a thread later tonight after the OZ runs if the start aligning with my thoughts 0f 6-8 in. This would be a WSW event. A watch maybe needed by Sat morning if this scenario comes to fruition. The key will be the high snow ratios too. The storm may move quickly but the ratios and cold in... Thursday at 08:36 AM 1,264 replies

This is what I got so far 7.25 in

Approaching 8 in for the Macungie area, banding still going on with low visibility and S+ snow

yes it is awesome birding, bald eagles , red tail at my feeders and deer with other animals up on my deck The feeder on the deck hosts, raccoons, possums, at least 6-8 squirrels at a time and hundreds of birds

Its puking snow right now in Macungie 3-4 inches on the ground now. Visibility cut big time - less than 1/4 mile with stiff breezes Snow ratios up to near 15:1 with the fluff factor

Its puking snow right now in Macungie 3-4 inches on the ground now. Visibility cut big time - less than 1/4 mile with stiff breezes Snow ratios up to near 15:1 with the fluff factor

OH no, ten minutes of pixie dust size flakes are already fluffed up pretty good. Snow ratios way are already considerably higher than 10: 1 for sure as the cold air is working down through the profiles. The models indicate 10:1 snow ratios With banding , I see a 8-12 inches in places now. I ran the meteogram generator at KABE/KRDG at 20:1 ratios and its nearly a foot with the expected precip amounts without banding. The start time is a few hours ahead of schedule too. https://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=Kabe&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=20&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

for the newbies: as the LP gets wrapped up, the snow ratios will go up. Looking at models 6 hours hours before this type of storm event is useless. Its all radar folks. A true meteorologist knows the historical function of past events too- just not relying on modelogy. Watch and learn. My Holly is spot on. The HRDPS and HRRR is what to be looking at if you are counting inches. Basically, where the frontogenisis banding sets up. The sweet spot for banding with a historical benchmark storm like this one for good snow banding is in northern montgomery, bucks and the LV. Lets just see how it pans out. Anyway the best part of this storm is the cold and blowing snow afterwards with a chance of thundersnow in the snow banding too.

The Meso's are in play. The delayed start time is usual when trying to overcome the huge amount of dry air in place. Typically starts off as pixie dust and within the hour becomes a moderate snow. The models have a tough time ingesting this dry air for start timing and accumulations as we are in the depth of this huge arctic air mass this time around.. As the moisture and evaporative cooling snowfall overcomes the dry layers in the atmosphere, the snow ratios will increase dramatically thus the moderate snow quickly becomes heavy snow (Fluff factor). If it was windy, we would have whiteout conditions but the LP, I believe is not deep enough and too far away from the coast this time. The HRDPS model is a trusting model for this particular storm event IMHO because it shows the fragmentation of the upper air patterns as the LP lifts northward off the coast. For the LV , also reaching the benchmark usually gives a decent snowfall event so I feel good about getting over 6 inches for a winter storm warning. Banding of the snow is an issue that the meso's seem to have trouble identifying the approximate locations. Where those band setup and the progressives of the LP off the coast is the real determining factor. The storm in Macungie last Feb was a good example of this. Someone will get a lollipop of 10+ inches in the warned areas and we all hope it is over us. LOL

this is what it could look like? https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1068529676892306

I have- its called the HEMP - Historical Experience Meteorological Patterns ---Model - used by us old geezers on occasion before the internet and commodore computers. LMAO Below is how I played modelogy back in the late 70's to early 80"s. they were games:---Wow how have things changed as being more serious and talk about changing from run to run every 6 hours? LMAO https://www.mobygames.com/game/174994/weather-tamers/

A Winter storm warning should be issued tomorrow by early afternoon for the LV. I only say that time frame because of the nuisance precip should get out of the way first but I am not Mt Holly. They could be confident enough to issue Sat morning however Its been a long time coming. Plowable snow - its about time. . This will be the heaviest snow since last year in Feb from the freak snow banding event giving us a localized snow of 15 inches or so in Macungie ( we only got warned during mid stream of last years event- not MT Hollys fault) as seen on 2/16/24 in my deck picture below. I expect Monday morning to look pretty similar with about 10+ inches. The huge difference is that this will blow everywhere by Monday evening as the snow will be very fluffy from the high snow ratios. I do expect rural plowed roads I the LV (Nazareth area) to be drifted shut if the winds pick up as I expect. Again, I emphasize the cold temps. This will be the coldest outbreak we have seen in many years. Say goodbye to many nuisance bugs for next spring. Ice jams on local rivers will become a problem in Feb should we have some moderation with these cold temps but ice jamming will become an issue in the future regardless. The typical frozen pipes, especially outside faucets that have not been properly winterized will burst. Many of drivers will burn through a ton of windshield wiper solution as the salt brine spray will become unbearable as exampled by todays quick melt off and of course car wash will be backed up with long lines on the sunny days. Do not be surprised as many car washes will close down with these cold temps next week too.

So far so good. Right on schedule. Like I said 8 to 12 in. For the wsw. Let's hope it holds. The high snow ratios will be the talk with blowing snow. Drifting maybe an issue. The intense raditional cooling temps subzero for the lv for sure with this storm event now.

that's a damn good punishment Brings tears to my eyes LMAO

this is my first call from a day ago. I am sticking to it so far and so is MT Holly in their discussion this morning. For the LV the totals may be more in line with 8-12 in with the higher snow ratios that I expect. I expect a winter storm watch by 3pm today if the trend in the models keep up at 12Z. The big thing though- blowing snow folks and the biting cold. Many frozen pipes and dead batteries coming next week that is for sure.

not worth it. Just wait until we get 4+ inches unplowed on the road Sunday night into Monday morning. These idiots will wreck everything in site. Many of the inexperienced drivers will basically take out there 40 to 80 grand + trucks and SUVs and drive them like as shown in the misguided commercials and end up wrecking their vehicles thinking they can drive on anything. They are all in for rude awakening come Monday when the Sunday night snows do not melt very well even with salt on the pavement. Tuesday morning will be wreck city as these vehicles also do not drive well on icy snow packed road surfaces too. Snow packed icy intersections will be common in the rural roads. The interstates should be fine but those local backroads that many drivers use for short cuts will be snow packed as the plows will take longer to to get to them. Going to be fun because everything will freeze hard as a rock something we have not seen much of in the last 20+ years. Major Rivers like the Lehigh and others will begin to freeze up, ice jams later?

The CMC has been holding strong and consistent this entire week for Sunday- Monday event, I find that refreshing. The GFS has been floundering and the Euro came back toward the CMC solution. The totals have been all over the place but it appears 6-8+ in may come more into line later tonight IMHO. I would post a thread later tonight after the OZ runs if the start aligning with my thoughts 0f 6-8 in. This would be a WSW event. A watch maybe needed by Sat morning if this scenario comes to fruition. The key will be the high snow ratios too. The storm may move quickly but the ratios and cold in place will make for a winter wonderland.

Just ferrtilzer to keep the BS spreading right?

CMC has been consistent the last few days for 6-8 inches. Its promising for a change

funny you said this. I lived less than .5 mile from the ongoing Hurst fire location back in the 1970's. My parents old house was in the voluntary evac last week in Newhall/Santa Clarita Valley. Many times when I was in high school, I had to water down the roof while helicopters were dumping water on our property and with red fire retardant. Had a huge firewall/break in my backyard. Believe me a can write a book about my life's weather experiences from the climate/weather patterns from Ca to the mid west to the east coast. From tornadoes and 1.5 inch ice storms in Memphis Tn, blizzards and extreme cold in Wisconsin -25 degrees , to dust/fire storms in California and Mojave Death Valley temps in the 120's, to hurricanes in Mississippi, earthquakes and finally all the weather here in eastern PA since the 80's I would get up in the morning in Newhall, shivering from low 40's and in the same afternoon I would then be swimming in my neighbor's pool at 85 to 95 degrees with 50 mph Santa Ana winds blowing and humidities down to 9%. I have experienced rain at the Newhall house and then driving up that afternoon to Gorman/Tejon Pass (less than 25 miles) and getting my car stuck in 4-6 ft snows (not drifts) with snow blowers(not Plows) clearing I-5. I actually have B/W photos of this experience I could post.

I agree, best computer back in the day. I used it for writing my papers in college and spreadsheets in the late 70's to 80's. You had to know DOS. Many of you probably do not even know that these computers were actually all made in Audubon PA- Lower Providence Township. Unfortunately, Commodore Computers went out of business at this location in the 1990's because they ended up polluting the ground water with TCE trying to clean up the computer chips at this facility. Pretty bad-- Superfund site. Spent a lot of time with EPA and Commodore while working in LPT trying to get the groundwater cleaned up. I have worked on environmental cleanups at many superfund sites before retiring--- Blue Mt Palmerton Zinc mine, Heleva Landfill, Dorney and Novak landfill, Rodale Printing, Moyer Landfill, Hebelka Battery,and Caloric facilities https://hackaday.com/2020/09/30/video-exploring-the-abandoned-birthplace-of-the-6502-and-commodore-64/ https://montco.today/2020/10/take-video-tour-of-abandoned-birthplace-of-6502-microprocessor-commodore-64-in-norristown/# https://www.commodore.ca/commodore-history/the-rise-of-mos-technology-the-6502/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOS_Technology