Albedoman

How dry is it? The Little Lehigh is a spring fed limestone stream. When we had the -15 degrees temps a few weeks ago, ice formed on the banks of the 55 degree water. Since then, the banks of the stream have remain frozen but the baseflow has continued to drop. The ice hangs over the streams edge by up to a foot above where the original base flow was flowing. I have never seen the base flow of this stream this low in the winter in 30+ years. The sleet tonight will not help much, just make it worse as it freezes the surfaces of the ground and only causes an immediate runoff into the streams from any salted roads without recharging groundwater tables plus its the amount of moisture content is nothing. Its like raining ice cubes on frozen surfaces. The only real melting is from man made salt application or sublimation tomorrow morning when the sun peaks out. At this point, Like what Mike Gorse stated ,I will take 2-3 inch rainstorm over this crap anyday. The dry air preceding every storm since New Years day here has been as so abundant. Its like to get it to snow in Las Vegas for every winter storm event. The models literally cannot handle this scenario on the east coast and they are going wacko with timings of the storm event to total precip amounts. The amount of virga and the progressiveness of the precip is way too fast. The models just cannot see this scenario very well. Its back to old days of waiting for just the right time to get a heavy snow event. Its just not in the cards right now.

Wel another forecast down the crapper. Solid sleet. No snow here in macungie. Just like i said earler, the late start has destroyed the snow forecast. Get ready for a possible ice storm update and thundersleet

wise decision. The old farts like me always wait until 48-72 hours when the pac buoys are no longer calling the shots for the models for accurate precip totals . That time period starts at the 0Z models tonight. Consistency is what I am looking for, not for actual amounts this far out. 12-18+ has been demonstrated in the models but not proven yet. The more accurate data ingestion in the models the better consistency. Tonights storm is a literal crap shoot. The damn moisture again is being sucked out of the atmosphere before the LP hits our area. I got down to 15 degrees this morningt and my indoor humidifier is running like gang busters again. The only saving grace maybe an upper level low forming in the sw of the Altoona area that may swing buy and give us some thundersleet/snow. That is worth seeing. Also, dendritic growth could be an issue early this evening with half dollar to pancake size flakes forming and can pile up quickly. The snow accumulations are all over the place indicating 2-7 inches tonight on the mesos. I am sticking with the HRRR as it has been somewhat believable in the last few storms for the LV. 3-5 inches of snow appears to be a good bet right now for me but nothing surprises me and the later the start, the less we get as the upper level low will be getting its shiot together further northeast of us and we get screwed again. By the way, my prediction the wording "my roads are caving" will be used a lot in posts later this evening LOL

I would not even think about Tuesday snow amount until we see the Pac data gets ingested on the Sunday OZ runs. Thats how it works Bets are out now and 6+ inches looks like a decent bet right now. The models have been consistent for at least that amount thus far. Whats nice right now that no one has commented on is that the OZ NAM has showed 3 in snow for positive snow depth in our area. Would not be surprised if the cold air holds on longer to see lollipops of 5-6 inches Sunday morning. The dense fog too tonightis really helping as the cold air advection comes in more slowly this time with more moisture available near the surface.

Nope, I admit I was wrong, came up short only about an 1.10 in of snow sleet and freezing rain. Underperformer for sure. Too much dry air plain and simple. The virga on the radar was unbelievable as the lower layers were really dry. Saturday night hopefully will be different. The atmosphere will be more juiced up from this storm event and Sat nights will hopefully juice it up for Monday nights storm event. For the first time in over a week today, my portable house humidifier stopped running for more than 4 hours. Thats a good sign to me that a change is coming. By the way, a dense fog warning has been issued. Now thats a great sign for Sat nights storm event that there will be more than a couple inches of snow with the higher moisture content in the and no extreme cold air in place.

I will take a seasons worth of snow right now in Macungie just to break this fricking drought. Oops, the 18z tonight says I will grant your wish of 40 inches snow in the next two weeks. Give me a break. There is no way in hell I believe that clown map and we have come up short the last three winter storms on even a.25 in of precip. These clown maps should be really called "WET DREAM " maps LMAO.

First and most likely my last call for tomorrow night for Macungie - 2-4+ inches of snow and sleet and then a prolong period of light freezing rain and drizzle to form a nice crust. Real bitch to shovel and to drive. Warning, do not scrape off snow/sleet until event is over on the vehicles and walkways. Put down salt tomorrow afternoon. You want the brine on the bottom of this crap By next weekend, we will get crushed. 12-18+ inches for the LV looks promising. with the better model consistency coming into play.

Yes this my thought as well. 3 to 6 rather than 2 to 4 on the snow amount o

and who will never forget this icing event involving I-78 in 2007. OMG was that bad . I live near I-78 and I will never forget that night https://www.pennlive.com/life/2020/02/marathon-storm-dumped-snow-ice-and-freezing-rain-on-valentines-day-in-2007.html

well how am I doing? LOL 20+ inches by Valentines on GFS

When I see that this much snow being shown on the positive snow depth change map , Its time to get rested for some serious snow shoveling

Almost an inch now in macunhie. Moderate snow. Everything covered. By noon tomorrow it may be all gone

You are hearing this prediction from me first- mark it down. The potential for major ice jams along the Delaware, Lehigh Schuylkill ,Susquehanna riverine systems with major flooding will be in the media real soon. Once we get a week of 45+ highs in these areas with some major rains of 2-4 inches places, like Trenton, just north of Belvidere/ Portland areas on the Delaware, Kline and Adams Island on the Lehigh are going to be the hotspots for flood damage. I have seen before, we will see this time too.

down to 5 degrees at 10:45. heading for another night below zero

First and last call 2-4 inches for the LV if we are really lucky with the snow ratios. Just enough to get the ground white. Time to put this storm to rest for the LV. No drought buster for sure. From Philly west to Harrisburg 6-8 in is a good bet --Warning level for them- advisory for the LV. This storm is a Ohio Valley special. From Indianapolis to Columbus to Washington, they get buried. They deserve it as they have been snow starved for years too. Our turn will becoming around Martin Luther King Day. Cold and dry will become the norm like the December 20th-25th time period. January 3 The upcoming pattern change on the 10-12th reverts back to the SOS. This drought is really going to be bad come January. The low flows in the limestone geology streams is beginning to freeze up the normally warm spring fed streams for the lack of a good flowing base flow. The trout population is literally being destroyed. I can only imagine how low the ground water table will be in February and how wells will dry up in the middle of winter. Even with a major snow event and with the ground frozen, no recharging of the groundwater table will take place for months. The latest moderate rains... December 5, 2024 I have been harping on the Enso going neutral and about how this winter could be like bitter cold and dry like 94, which I was right. The next biggie-- a major snow event in and around Valentines day in this current pattern regime. I am not really concern at this time about the potential for a significant ice storm for next week as the saving grace is that the moisture is not around to produce .5 to 1" ice accumulations.

I said this Tuesday on the central pa forum The current drought is ignored in the winter as these PADEP hydrologists sit comfortably in their heated offices and never get out to see the real world. They rely on inaccurate USGS gauges during frozen conditions and other BS modeling for drought that are with unproven techniques. Tell them to go drill a monitoring well and they will always say what for? The stupidity burns my friends. The current snow pack contains snowflakes with little moisture content which does nothing for the drought. Best evidence in which the hydrologists ignore is the moisture content of the snowpack. My proof? Look how yellow the grass was even before the latest snow cover. The grass has now been covered with some low moisture fluffy snow but in these desert like humidities the last month , sublimation has literally destroy the moisture content of the snow cover and when the grass is exposed again, the grass will be even more yellow- actually brown. But they continue to sit in their offices dreaming of a flood somewhere. Thanks for agreeing with me.

Right now, Philadelphia is on track to set a new record for driest January on record, assuming less than 0.06" of liquid-equivalent falls before month's end (which right now, looks likely). Allentown (0.02" margin) and Mount Pocono (0.10" margin) are also in the running. The drought is not gone folks and has been made 100% worse for groundwater supplies.

MT Holly- temps were at -1 from midnight and actually rose to 3 degrees around 3 am until 6 am when the temps dropped again dropped to -3 after the skies cleared out. Radiational cooling is a huge factor the last few nights in the local deeper valleys. Ice fog was not as bad too.

I found the verification

I have not seen -8 anywhere at KABE. Please verify Imperial (Metric) Date Time (est) Wind (mph) Vis. (mi.) Weather Sky Cond. Temperature (ºF) Relative Humidity Wind Chill (°F) Heat Index (°F) Pressure Precipitation (in) Air Dwpt 6 hour altimeter (in) sea level (mb) 1 hr 3 hr 6 hr Max. Min. 22 15:35 SW 3 10.00 Fair CLR 19.4 -5.8 32% 30.48 0.0 22 15:15 SW 6 10.00 Fair CLR 19.4 -4 35% 12 30.48 0.0 22 14:55 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 19.4 -7.6 29% 30.48 0.0 22 14:35 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 19.4 -5.8 32% 30.48 0.0 22 14:15 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 19.4 -5.8 32% 30.48 0.0 22 13:55 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 19.4 -5.8 32% 30.49 0.0 22 13:35 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 19.4 -5.8 32% 30.49 0.0 22 13:15 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 17.6 -4 38% 30.5 0.0 22 12:55 NW 6 10.00 Fair CLR 17.6 -4 38% 10 30.52 0.0 22 12:35 NW 3 10.00 Fair CLR 17.6 -5.8 35% 30.51 0.0 22 12:15 W 3 10.00 Fair CLR 17.6 -5.8 35% 30.52 0.0 22 11:55 NW 7 10.00 Fair CLR 15.8 -5.8 37% 7 30.52 0.0 22 11:35 N 9 10.00 Fair CLR 14 -4 44% 3 30.52 0.0 22 11:15 N 9 10.00 Fair CLR 14 -4 44% 3 30.52 0.0 22 10:55 NW 8 10.00 Fair CLR 12.2 -4 48% 2 30.52 0.0 22 10:35 NW 7 10.00 Fair CLR 12.2 -4 48% 3 30.53 0.0 22 10:15 NW 9 10.00 Fair CLR 12.2 -4 48% 1 30.53 0.0 22 09:55 NW 8 10.00 Fair CLR 10.4 -4 52% -1 30.53 0.0 22 09:35 NW 5 10.00 Fair CLR 10.4 -0.4 61% 3 30.53 0.0 22 09:15 W 3 10.00 Fair CLR 8.6 -0.4 66% 30.53 0.0 22 08:55 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 5 -0.4 78% 30.53 0.0 22 08:35 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 3.2 -4 72% 30.52 0.0 22 08:15 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 1.4 -4 78% 30.52 0.0 22 07:55 SW 3 10.00 Fair CLR 1.4 -4 78% 30.52 0.0 22 07:35 SW 3 10.00 Fair CLR 1.4 -4 78% 30.52 0.0 22 07:15 S 3 10.00 Fair CLR 1.4 -4 78% 30.51 0.0 22 06:55 SW 3 10.00 Fair CLR -0.4 -5.8 78% 30.5 0.0 22 06:15 S 5 10.00 Fair CLR -0.4 -5.8 78% -9 30.49 0.0 22 05:55 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR -2.2 -5.8 84% 30.49 0.0 22 05:35 S 3 10.00 Fair CLR -0.4 -5.8 78% 30.49 0.0 22 05:15 S 3 10.00 Fair CLR 1.4 -2.2 85% 30.49 0.0 22 04:55 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR -0.4 -5.8 78% 30.48 0.0 22 04:35 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR -0.4 -4 84% 30.48 0.0 22 04:15 S 3 10.00 Fair CLR -0.4 -4 84% 30.49 0.0 22 03:55 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR -0.4 -5.8 78% 30.49 0.0 22 03:35 S 3 10.00 Fair CLR 1.4 -4 78% 30.49 0.0 22 03:15

I posted this in the philly forum a few minutes ago with pics last nights low was -10 at my house in Macungie. Many areas in the deeper valleys were colder than that along Rt 222. This is the coldest temps since the infamous winter of 1994 for me at the house. That was the year my digital thermometer locked up at -25 below zero and had to trash it. But I really remember the one thing in 1994 that I have not seen but one other time when it has been this cold here and because the Little Lehigh is in my backyard ---ICE FOG--. I hope Mike Gorse reads this. This is really a rare weather phenomena here and...

last nights low was -10 at my house in Macungie. Many areas in the deeper valleys were colder than that along Rt 222. This is the coldest temps since the infamous winter of 1994 for me at the house. That was the year my digital thermometer locked up at -25 below zero and had to trash it. But I really remember the one thing in 1994 that I have not seen but one other time when it has been this cold here and because the Little Lehigh is in my backyard ---ICE FOG--. I hope Mike Gorse reads this. This is really a rare weather phenomena here and demonstrates how cold the air really is in the riverine valleys in PA. Ice Fog forms when the skies are clear -10 below zero and colder and the stream is not frozen because the water is limestone spring fed at around 60 degrees. The warm water literally starts to steam in such colder temps. Everything within the riparian area around the stream turns into an crystallized powder on the vegetation and becomes a beautiful ice wonderland.

drought is ignored in the winter as these PADEP hydrologists sit comfortably in their heated offices and never get out to see the real world. They rely on inaccurate USGS gauges during frozen conditions and other BS modeling for drought that are with unproven techniques. Tell them to go drill a monitoring well and they will always say what for? The stupidity burns my friends. The current snow pack contains snowflakes with little moisture content which does nothing for the drought. Best evidence in which the hydrologists ignore is the moisture content of the snowpack. My proof? Look how yellow the grass was even before the latest snow cover. The grass has now been covered with some low moisture fluffy snow but in these desert like humidities the last month , sublimation has literally destroy the moisture content of the snow cover and when the grass is exposed again, the grass will be even more yellow- actually brown. But they continue to sit in their offices dreaming of a flood somewhere. Thanks for agreeing with me.

Yes, some talk about it here but it is the media that ticks me off. Too much time on sports and social issues, not enough time on water supply issues until it's too late. The snow sublimation is a humongous problem right now. Ski resorts are pumping one hell of lot water out of the ground just to keep the slopes at the proper snow depth. Why is no one mentioning that situation? The levels of streams show drought conditions now because they are frozen. Low flow conditions enable the non limestone streams to freeze longer and harder. More ice jams later? a good 18-24 inch state nowfall event would help a lot. That is not in the cards at this time. I see 2/14 to 2/20 period as the best and only shot of this happening as the dying la nina is put down with a new pattern change. However this pattern reminds of the 3 pattern before the March 93 superstorm too

and no rain or snow well enjoy your drought folks with the mild temps