Albedoman

As far as LR models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminIshed capacity IN THE MESO'S----LET IT PLAY OUT FOLKS. I AGREE THAT 6-12" SEEMS PLAUSIBLE --I AM GETTING BLUE IN THE FACE FROM POSTING THIS IN THE LAST WEEK

As far as LR models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminshed capacity

we are all optimists not pessimists. Go post on his page and rave to your hearts content about how great this guy is. His forecasting is like walking with two left feet and trying tie his shoe laces with no thumbs. Hopeless

I usually, I do not say much about this guy as he always jumps on board at the last minute with hand drawn maps and makes grossly inaccurate long range forecasts. Ralph Wiggum and LV Blizzard has him beat by miles. Anything DT says now, take with a grain of salt. I been reading this guys posts, for 10+ years and I believe Ji from the MA forum more than this DT. As far as LR models go, the typical pattern MO this year is the LR models show the MECS storm potential at 7-10 days.---lose the MECS potential at 4-6 days and then bring the potential MECS back in a diminshed capacity, especially with qpf amounts, usually cut by 25% or more. This dam reliable LR prediction pattern destroyed my latest prediction on last nights storm where I thought we could get 6+ inches of snow and only got 2-3 inches here in the LV (over ten days ago.) Lets hope the MECS sticks around this time. A separate thread should not be started until Friday evenings Meso runs - anything before then will jinx it. You are warned

Yes on Feb 1, I said 6-12 inches of snow and a pattern change. The pattern change has happened but unfortutantly I was off on the qpf by .50. Not to shabby. I also stated this on Jan 22, 2026 ----"1994 all over again folks if that happens" Well the storm did happen and the depth of cold we have had has rivaled 1994 This weekend' storm is a real crap shoot right now in our relaxed pattern but it would not suprise me at all we all get at least a foot of wet snow as the new pattern really sets in for more warmer temps in the first week in march. I am getting concerned that too much frozen precip right now will enhance ice jamming and flooding, especialy when the pattern gets really warm and perhaps even wet in early march. The temps in early march say we torch to 70 degrees on the GFS. The ice in the Upper Delaware river cannot deal with sudden temps changes into the 60 -70's and if we get heavy rainfall, the residents along the major tribs will be in trouble.

light snow in Macungie

well I did not get the 4-6 inches i prdicted weeks ago but it is a major pattern changer that I had predicted. Lets see what happpens next weekend.

The winter deserves an A- with a big the help of a huge class curve given by the teacher based on all of the misses the last three weeks with potential storms. Its like we have three bad tests of potential winter storms and the teacher is throwing them out to raise the average class scores to achieve an A- with the cold temps and snow cover. lol

thanks, maybe if I get time in the next few days I will

Its time you guys know who I really am. I have hidden my past experiences but you will hear much more about me in the upcoming months as I am dealing directly with data centers in municipalities. MY name Mike Siegel aka the "albedoman -drought guy whatever" . I chose albedoman because my Uncle had to deal directly with the albedo effect when forecasting the potential for forest fires and temp regimes studies in the western US. He wrote several papers on this topic as well as others and at one time directed the entire Western Region of NOAA. This person underlined below is my weather mentor and also is my Uncle. He is 83. I have degree in physical geography- concentration in atmospheric sciences and environmental science (not too many meteorology schols back in the late 70's) with a minor in geology and post graduate work in satellite imagery with a ton of hours and certifications in Environmental science and urban planning. I was also an air traffic controller in the Navy. My resume is several pages long and have written magazine articles and publish papers at Penn State dealing with stormwater issues involving bioengineering and recently authored Lowhill Township's Zoning and Land Development Ordinances as their planning consultant. I have been around the block. I recently came out of retirement in 2025 to serve as the Township Manager of Lowhill Township, Lehigh County by accepting an offer I just could not refuse. I did retire in 2010 from Lower Providence Township in Montgomery County as their Director of Planning and Development and was the Building Codes directer and zoning officer. David E. Olsen was a meteorologist associated with the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS). Historical U.S. government and NOAA technical documents list him as the author of meteorological forecast reports such as “Forecasting Maximum Temperatures at Helena, Montana” dating back to the late 1960s, indicating he worked in operational forecasting and climate-related analysis for the Weather Service. Individuals like Olsen typically served as Meteorologist or Meteorologist in Charge at an NWS Weather Forecast Office, producing forecast guidance and contributing to regional temperature forecasts and related climatological studies.

https://www.mcall.com/2026/02/07/giant-chip-split-high-winds-inside-scoop-coopersburg/

I am still on board with this prediction guys, My biggest concern is really severe ice jamming and floods by March. If this pattern even hints at relaxing and opening the Gulf of America with moisture, we are in some deep flooding shit folks with ice jammming. Bridges may go down throughout the region and the folks on Adams Island on the Lehigh River in the LV, their homes will be destroyed and or flooded. The ice jams that I remeber while I was the Twp manager in Lower Mt Bethel Township, I saw mobile homes and cars 40 feet in the air stuck in trees. Its going to be really really bad if we get a quick warmup with flooding rains after this pattern change, especially around the 22nd time period.

Pattern change 6-12" 2/14-17 time period

while all of you are worried about the next 2-6 inch snow event, I am telling you all right now and I have been saying this for two months, being laughed and joked about is the potential for record breaking Ice jams on the Delaware and other rivers that are going to be FEMA disaster damaging. Even the Little Lehigh creek IMBY which is 85% spring fed and has been never frozen in my entire 40 years that I have lived year, is frozen solid. That is bad folks. Ice jam warnings will be issued because you all know that one good warm spell will be coming toward Presidents Day. How bad is this situation now? As a member of the EOC in Lehigh County and a Township manager this situation is becoming pretty fricking serious right now. Need proof? Well here you go in the link below that is not public knowledge. Also , nobody is talking about saltwater intrusion on the Delaware right now? Many muncipalities may be out of drinking water real soon with the ice jams as water relases cannot be performed. As of late 2024 and early 2025, saltwater intrusion on the Delaware River has been a concern due to low freshwater inflows, with the salt front shifting upstream towards the Philadelphia International Airport. While it has reached positions similar to 2016 levels, management efforts, including reservoir releases, are actively managing salinity levels. Location of Salt Front: The salt front has moved approximately 20 miles north of its typical position, closer to Philadelphia, PA, and Camden, NJ. Cause: Driven by drought conditions and reduced freshwater flow, allowing for higher upstream migration of sea salt. Action Taken: The Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) is using water from upstream reservoirs to push the salt front back down. Water Quality: Despite the intrusion, officials have been able to protect drinking water intakes, although the situation requires active management. https://view.em.silvi.com/?vawpToken=RX366I5XGK2UVGXG6FTSFNFRJE.130014

without proper data sampling, this model watching is useless. The NYC forum posters are jumping of the Verazzano right now after tonights runs. If the 12Z models tomorrow do show some slight improvment, this will be a fish storm. I would want to see the OZ NAM run tommorrow night at 72 hours. IF the LP is at the benchmark then, game on. Going to bed