Albedoman

Here in Lower macungie, just outside of Alburtis we had some wicked but nice localized snow banding. When the first band came through around 3 pm the flakes were pancake size and lasted for over an hour. It was snowing at 2-3 inch per hour rates for nearly 1.5 hours. The another band came through around 5 pm and dropped some more heavy snow 1 inch per hour rates but the fluff factor with the snow flake was noticeably diminished I ended up with 7.8 inches. The banding was expected and was a huge difference. The RGEM as well as final Mt Holly snow map showed the banding right over me. Below was my original forecast from days ago as stuck with the RGEM and my past experiences with these type of snow pattern events. The CMC has been holding strong and consistent this entire week for Sunday- Monday event, I find that refreshing. The GFS has been floundering and the Euro came back toward the CMC solution. The totals have been all over the place but it appears 6-8+ in may come more into line later tonight IMHO. I would post a thread later tonight after the OZ runs if the start aligning with my thoughts 0f 6-8 in. This would be a WSW event. A watch maybe needed by Sat morning if this scenario comes to fruition. The key will be the high snow ratios too. The storm may move quickly but the ratios and cold in... Thursday at 08:36 AM 1,264 replies

This is what I got so far 7.25 in

Approaching 8 in for the Macungie area, banding still going on with low visibility and S+ snow

yes it is awesome birding, bald eagles , red tail at my feeders and deer with other animals up on my deck The feeder on the deck hosts, raccoons, possums, at least 6-8 squirrels at a time and hundreds of birds

Its puking snow right now in Macungie 3-4 inches on the ground now. Visibility cut big time - less than 1/4 mile with stiff breezes Snow ratios up to near 15:1 with the fluff factor

Its puking snow right now in Macungie 3-4 inches on the ground now. Visibility cut big time - less than 1/4 mile with stiff breezes Snow ratios up to near 15:1 with the fluff factor

OH no, ten minutes of pixie dust size flakes are already fluffed up pretty good. Snow ratios way are already considerably higher than 10: 1 for sure as the cold air is working down through the profiles. The models indicate 10:1 snow ratios With banding , I see a 8-12 inches in places now. I ran the meteogram generator at KABE/KRDG at 20:1 ratios and its nearly a foot with the expected precip amounts without banding. The start time is a few hours ahead of schedule too. https://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=Kabe&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=20&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

for the newbies: as the LP gets wrapped up, the snow ratios will go up. Looking at models 6 hours hours before this type of storm event is useless. Its all radar folks. A true meteorologist knows the historical function of past events too- just not relying on modelogy. Watch and learn. My Holly is spot on. The HRDPS and HRRR is what to be looking at if you are counting inches. Basically, where the frontogenisis banding sets up. The sweet spot for banding with a historical benchmark storm like this one for good snow banding is in northern montgomery, bucks and the LV. Lets just see how it pans out. Anyway the best part of this storm is the cold and blowing snow afterwards with a chance of thundersnow in the snow banding too.

The Meso's are in play. The delayed start time is usual when trying to overcome the huge amount of dry air in place. Typically starts off as pixie dust and within the hour becomes a moderate snow. The models have a tough time ingesting this dry air for start timing and accumulations as we are in the depth of this huge arctic air mass this time around.. As the moisture and evaporative cooling snowfall overcomes the dry layers in the atmosphere, the snow ratios will increase dramatically thus the moderate snow quickly becomes heavy snow (Fluff factor). If it was windy, we would have whiteout conditions but the LP, I believe is not deep enough and too far away from the coast this time. The HRDPS model is a trusting model for this particular storm event IMHO because it shows the fragmentation of the upper air patterns as the LP lifts northward off the coast. For the LV , also reaching the benchmark usually gives a decent snowfall event so I feel good about getting over 6 inches for a winter storm warning. Banding of the snow is an issue that the meso's seem to have trouble identifying the approximate locations. Where those band setup and the progressives of the LP off the coast is the real determining factor. The storm in Macungie last Feb was a good example of this. Someone will get a lollipop of 10+ inches in the warned areas and we all hope it is over us. LOL

this is what it could look like? https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1068529676892306

I have- its called the HEMP - Historical Experience Meteorological Patterns ---Model - used by us old geezers on occasion before the internet and commodore computers. LMAO Below is how I played modelogy back in the late 70's to early 80"s. they were games:---Wow how have things changed as being more serious and talk about changing from run to run every 6 hours? LMAO https://www.mobygames.com/game/174994/weather-tamers/

A Winter storm warning should be issued tomorrow by early afternoon for the LV. I only say that time frame because of the nuisance precip should get out of the way first but I am not Mt Holly. They could be confident enough to issue Sat morning however Its been a long time coming. Plowable snow - its about time. . This will be the heaviest snow since last year in Feb from the freak snow banding event giving us a localized snow of 15 inches or so in Macungie ( we only got warned during mid stream of last years event- not MT Hollys fault) as seen on 2/16/24 in my deck picture below. I expect Monday morning to look pretty similar with about 10+ inches. The huge difference is that this will blow everywhere by Monday evening as the snow will be very fluffy from the high snow ratios. I do expect rural plowed roads I the LV (Nazareth area) to be drifted shut if the winds pick up as I expect. Again, I emphasize the cold temps. This will be the coldest outbreak we have seen in many years. Say goodbye to many nuisance bugs for next spring. Ice jams on local rivers will become a problem in Feb should we have some moderation with these cold temps but ice jamming will become an issue in the future regardless. The typical frozen pipes, especially outside faucets that have not been properly winterized will burst. Many of drivers will burn through a ton of windshield wiper solution as the salt brine spray will become unbearable as exampled by todays quick melt off and of course car wash will be backed up with long lines on the sunny days. Do not be surprised as many car washes will close down with these cold temps next week too.

So far so good. Right on schedule. Like I said 8 to 12 in. For the wsw. Let's hope it holds. The high snow ratios will be the talk with blowing snow. Drifting maybe an issue. The intense raditional cooling temps subzero for the lv for sure with this storm event now.

that's a damn good punishment Brings tears to my eyes LMAO

this is my first call from a day ago. I am sticking to it so far and so is MT Holly in their discussion this morning. For the LV the totals may be more in line with 8-12 in with the higher snow ratios that I expect. I expect a winter storm watch by 3pm today if the trend in the models keep up at 12Z. The big thing though- blowing snow folks and the biting cold. Many frozen pipes and dead batteries coming next week that is for sure.