Albedoman

MY reasoning why: as more w pac data finally gets ingested into the GFS since it is hamstrung on obtaining reliable data for baja Ca/4 corner lows and when the LP will be ejected out to arklatex area

the media pressure will be too much or model agreement will have to be stupendous and overwheelming once the GFS comes on board. I am concerned with the severe cold afterwards not the amounts of precip. You have an entire generation of drivers that have never driven on powdery snow that is compacted into 4 inches of solid ice with no salt to melt as temps in the single digits. The region better keep the truck drivers off the interstates or we all see 100 car pileups. As an old timer, this situation with the cold though not as severe as 1994 reminds of one thing friends Just look at where everything is lined up in this weather channel video see below The 1994 ice storm (specifically the January 7–8 event) effectively paralyzed the Lehigh Valley, turning routine travel and daily activities into significant hazards. Transportation Impacts Road Closures and Accidents: Freezing rain transformed roads into "ice skating rinks," leading to hundreds of accidents across southeastern Pennsylvania. A notable 16-vehicle pileup occurred on westbound Interstate 78 in Lower Saucon Township due to the sudden icing. Stranded Vehicles: Many motorists were forced to abandon cars on snow- and ice-covered highways. Public transit, including some Greyhound bus services, was suspended, leaving travelers stranded at terminals. Public Transit Standstill: Regional transit systems like SEPTA and Amtrak faced major delays or complete shutdowns, with some services taking nearly a week to return to normal. Airport Disruptions: Lehigh Valley International Airport (then ABE) and other regional hubs like Philadelphia International faced multi-day closures due to icy runways. Impacts on Daily Life Widespread Power Outages: Heavy ice accumulation—up to 1 inch—downed thousands of trees and utility lines. Approximately 400,000 to 590,000 customers in the broader region lost power, with many remaining in the dark for over a week. School and Business Closures: Schools across the Lehigh Valley were closed for multiple days. In some instances, schools that attempted to open had to send students home early as conditions worsened, leading to buses becoming stranded on rural roads. Supply Shortages: Panic buying led to severe shortages of staple items; locals reported that "not a loaf of bread" could be found in some city stores. Hardware stores quickly sold out of generators, kerosene, and salt. Hazardous Conditions: Falling tree limbs and "snapping" sounds like gunshots were common as the weight of the ice became too great for trees to bear. Walking outdoors became extremely dangerous due to the thick coating of ice on sidewalks. Infrastructure Failures: The extreme cold and heavy precipitation during this period contributed to the eventual collapse of the Corporate Plaza building in Allentown due to a massive sinkhole

I am not too worried yet. Its dry like this on average years during this time frame. Concerns: 1. Being a neutral year, we are in for a real cold and snowy winter which will definitely help the groundwater tables. See lots of northeaster's and the potential freezing rain/sleet events early in December. Expecting some nice rains by mid October as the warm pattern breaks down. A good tropical storm up the east coast can really help get us out this stubborn pattern. Said this Nov 23 The models have shown only one positive thing in the last two weeks for a major pattern change and a possible major snow event for us but when it will ever occur will just be plain luck. If you old timers recognize the current major pattern shift on the last weeks runs which we have not seen in nearly 6-10 years is identified as the four corner lows which are developing and pushing into the Gulf of America. Then these lows are quickly re-energized with a ton of moisture and are setting up for a good Miller A type of storm event- rain or snow along the east coast. The lows south of New Orleans into Tampa are impressive on the model runs. This is the best look in model runs in a long time as it appears the GOA is opening back up for business, however these low pressure systems are also quickly becoming southern sliders too. The cold dry air that does come through with a cold front is NOT retreating back up into Canada so quickly before the moisture reaches us. Would not be surprised if the Carolina's up to Washington DC sees more accumulating snow then us this year.

NAM at 48-56 hours HRRR at 36 to tighten it up. Thursday evening will tell us all what is going to happen, The watches should be out by then

This looks promising for the LV

the kicker energy to the north in Canada will pull likley the storm north and the HP over southern Quebec will alsoweaken. This will come to fruition after the missing/scant W PAC data is finally ingested into the Meso models by Thursday 12Z runs Magical points to look for for a MECS/HECS 1. a 1035mb high over southern quebec - we have that, 2. the LP over SW VA with a secondary LP forming directly over the NC Hatteras area- starting to take shape in the last model runs, 3. The secondary LP taking it sweet ass time getting to the Delmarva pennisula-- the sweet spot/Bench mark as the primary LP in W dies on the grapevine do not know yet and 4. An inverted trough setting ip with the LP going negative tilt setting up just off the NJ coast at at least 980 mb --do not know yet Until than trust nothing from social media BS meteorologists. If the 12Z runs on Thursday show something, then Friday winter storm watches should be flowing out. Possible warnings with this storm by the OZ meso runs on Sat if indeed this scenerio unfolds including just about everything in the NWS winter kitchen weather warnings cabinet including freezing spray, blizzard warnings as that criteria will easily be met with the extreme cold but no high winds may prevent them from being issued, Wind chill warnings, cold advisories, ice storm warnings, beach erosion etc, PA NJ and NY would issue state of emergencies Sat morning, major interstates will be shutdown Sat night- the entire winter kitchen cabinet will be emptied folks. Still to early, but I bet your ass that PEMA is looking at this situation right now as the PJM grid system will take a hell of hit too with below zero temps for highs after storm departs. FWIW from the drought guy who has seen every nasty storm in the last 45 years here.

Let it hone in Ralph. I said many weeks ago what was going to happen around MLK and dam if it did. Nearly a foot of snow on the ground at my house. Now comes the blistering cold that you will will remember I stated back last Novmeber which I go lambasted for. The storm for this weekend is going to flip flop until the PAC data comes into play by Thursday afternoon. Anything on the mid range models is horse shit IMHO, the models are all are missing vital data. Fun storm to track but if th cold is as deep as shown for thweekend, supression will likley win out. Snow in the teens will be nasty as even salt will not work should be the big headline. Travell could be SOB. Be prepared to huncker down this weekend would be motto if the storm comes north. Personally another 4-6 inches is good enough for me but blowing that shit at 12 degrees is not fun.

I agree- way too conservative and Bobby has not the experience of storms like this. This sscenario happens only a few times in a decade. In his next breath, he will now call this an overperformer- in whose eyes though?- not mine. I called it for my township on the nose.

yep I have just about 3 inches today. 9 inches in 24 hours- I will take. I am not cleaning this stuff until I see what happens this evening- it maybe all for naught. Could have 12 inches by this evening from this two day storm event on the ground the way these storms are going. Somone in the NE is going to get whacked with a norlun trough still.

close to a norlun trough yoou never know when tilts lol

final total 5.8 at my house Overperformer fo sure. I am becoming real concern that tommorrows snow is going into a negative tilt with someone getting a norlun trough situation from eastern pa up to Conn area. another 4-6 inches is not out of the realm right now if you believe the NAM run at noon. Winter storm watches maybe issued

Pushing 6 in here now Macungie. Overperformer fo sure

I have nearly 4 inches on the ground here in Macungie. Puking snow I said after the 15th and near the 22nd weeks ago. Hit it good on the prediction back in December. Actually will have to bring out my snow thrower - have not done that in almost year

I posted this on the 12/27 Winter is going to take a brief break after this BS first of the year storm of only 1-3 inches if we are really lucky. I see no snowstorms until after the 15th and it will warm up into the upper 40's to 50's . I do think we will pay the piper for this brief warm up by Marin Luther Kings day-- seems to be the pattern the last 5 years. All I can say is the drought situation in our area is only going to worsen as the Gulf storm production is shut down for business. Believe me, dried up wells and sinkhole formation with dropping groundwater tables with waterline breaks galore will be the talk of the town in the next three weeks as the ground starts to thaw out with what little moisture is in it. The base flows of the creeks will begin to drop again too. We really need a 96 type of storm event asap. Still holding--------

Mods should set as separate policy on starting new storm threads. For example- The innitial storm post must be shown on at least 2 of the the SR models at 3 days to be an immediate posting. On the LR range models the storm must be shown between 5-7 days on the at least two of the models such as GFS, CMC and or Euro IN AT LEAST TWO CONSECTUTIVE DAILY RUNS. Anything else out further than 7 days is BS and is not immediate. The problem is that the media and youtube hucksters out there pick up one model run 10-15 days out and run with it like it is a major crisis unfolding, like the polar vortex, one Noreaster pattern etc. They are ruining the relaibility of the forecasters on this site right now too. Hyped media is selling the weather story and not professional forecasting. I welcome comments, especially from the long timers here.