Albedoman

One well-placed nor’easter can absolutely push the Lehigh Valley above normal for the winter. Allentown got 31.9 inches from the January 2016 blizzard alone. If a coastal low slows down where its heaviest snow band sits over the Valley and the cold air holds, that one storm can decide where we finish. preview.weather.gov My pop-up thunderstorm analogy fits. You can reasonably forecast that the afternoon favors thunderstorms and still have no idea at breakfast whose backyard will get drenched. El Niño gives forecasters some insight into the winter storm track. NOAA’s outlook this winter favors wetter conditions along the Eastern Seaboard, but it gives no seasonal snowfall total for Allentown. I’d take the regional odds seriously and be skeptical of anyone claiming in November that our region will finish below normal

Todays GFS runs near the 15 day mark indicated some white flakes/slop in the region. Going to feel like winter even if the flakes do not materialize

Just got hammered here in Macungie 50 mph wind gusts and a good thunderstorm. Watch out Bucks and Montgomery areas coming your way. 1-2 in rainfall rates too. Temps jumped from mid 60's at 2 pm to near 80 in 2 hours. Still raining hard.

METEOROLOGIST’S LONG-RANGE WATCH — IS OUR FIRST REAL SHOT OF FALL COLD SHOWING UP? For those of us in the Lehigh Valley who have been waiting for some genuine crisp fall weather, the extended-range guidance is finally starting to get interesting. The GFS model is beginning to show a potentially much cooler pattern developing around the October 9–11 time frame, with colder air pushing into Pennsylvania and the Northeast. At this distance, I am NOT calling for a freeze yet, and certainly no Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning can be issued this far in advance. But the overall pattern is worth watching. The important signal isn't an exact temperature on one particular GFS run. What meteorologists look for this far out is whether the larger atmospheric pattern begins favoring Canadian air moving southeast, lower dew points, clearing skies and high pressure settling over the region. If those ingredients eventually come together, overnight temperatures can drop very quickly across eastern Pennsylvania. And remember, the Lehigh Valley has some significant microclimates. Temperatures at the airport don't always tell the whole story. Rural valleys, open farmland and sheltered locations can become several degrees colder on a clear, calm October night. Those are the places that could see frost first. So for now, let's call October 9–11 a period to watch for the possibility of our first legitimate frost conditions and perhaps our first real taste of late-fall nighttime temperatures. We will need several more model runs — and especially better agreement among the ensembles — before putting much confidence in an actual freeze. But after what seems like an endless stretch of warm and humid weather, I'll take the signal. I'm ready for those clear 50-degree evenings dropping into the 40s after sunset, the smell of leaves in the air, a fire going in the burn ring, and a glass of wine in hand. Now THAT is fall weather. I'll be watching the GFS and ensemble trends closely over the next week to see whether this colder October 9–11 signal strengthens, disappears, or shifts in timing. Stay tuned — fall may finally be getting ready to make its move in the Lehigh Valley.

Looks like tonight maybe another drencher for some if the storms hold together from the other side of the state. My house got 1.85 in of rain overnight and the Little Lehigh reached bankfull for the second time this summer. Put a real nice dent in the drought conditions here. The best part is the crabgrass is starting to die. This weekend cool shot will help put that fricking weed in its grave with the shorter daylight hours.

For the 100th time macungie got crap. The outflow boundary killed lehigh county once again. The story of this summer The haves and have not.

The mesoscale storm system that brought this morning’s clouds and rain across eastern Pennsylvania is finally beginning to fizzle out and move away. That could actually set the stage for a more active afternoon. For the first time in several weeks, the stubborn all-day cloud cover is beginning to break, allowing some afternoon sunshine to return. If we get several hours of heating, the atmosphere could destabilize fairly quickly given the abundant moisture already in place. That means the Lehigh Valley and eastern Pennsylvania could see thunderstorms redevelop later this afternoon and into the evening. Any stronger storms that form could produce torrential downpours, frequent lightning, strong to potentially damaging wind gusts, and localized flooding. The big thing to watch over the next few hours is how much sunshine and heating we get behind the departing morning system. The more clearing we see, the greater the potential for stronger convection later today. I would not be surprised to see the National Weather Service issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch later this afternoon, especially if instability builds as expected. Keep an eye on the sky and radar this afternoon. The morning storms may be ending, but they may only be setting the table for round two.

severe t storm for Lehigh County. I might just see some heavy rain in 30 minutes but we sure do not need the winds

I think you're seeing a very real mesoscale pattern that's been repeating this summer for the LV happening again. The Pennsylvania Turnpike has almost acted like a dividing line on many convective days. Storm complexes have repeatedly tracked from southwest to northeast across Lancaster, Chester, southern Berks, Montgomery, and Philadelphia counties, while much of the Lehigh Valley has ended up on the northern edge of the heavier precipitation shield. That's left areas south of the Turnpike with repeated 1–3 inch downpours while parts of the Lehigh Valley have watched storms either weaken or split apart before arriving. From a meteorological standpoint, several things can contribute: Storms have been following a persistent southwest-to-northeast steering flow. The heaviest instability has often remained just south of the Lehigh Valley. Outflow boundaries from earlier storms have repeatedly focused new thunderstorm development farther south. Small shifts of only 20–40 miles in the storm track can mean one county receives 3 inches while the next gets almost nothing. My observation about "after a good agricultural saving rain last week—zilch the last three days" is exactly how this pattern behaves. One widespread soaking rain doesn't necessarily end the drought problem if subsequent thunderstorms keep missing the area. Lehigh County still has a significant portion of the population affected by drought or abnormally dry conditions despite recent rainfall. If this continues another week or two, you'll likely start seeing: corn and soybean stress on lighter soils, reduced stream base flows, increased irrigation demand, and a growing contrast between southern Pennsylvania and the Lehigh Valley in rainfall totals. Sometimes it feels like the "7–10 split" has become almost a standing feature this summer, even though it's really the repeated positioning of storm tracks rather than a fixed weather boundary. It only takes a slight shift in the upper-level flow for the Lehigh Valley to suddenly become the target instead of Lancaster and Philadelphia. I hope this happens soon.

are you continuing your facebook /website too?

Brief shower earlier last hour, now it is pouring in Lower Macungie/ Ancient Oaks. I welcome these showers as the corn and soybeans are loving it.

We received approximately 3.45 inches of rain in Lower Macungie during the past 24 hours, and it came in three separate events of more than one inch each. This is exactly the type of beneficial rainfall our farmers, streams, and groundwater resources have desperately needed after months of persistent dry conditions. For once, the Lehigh Valley received meaningful rainfall instead of watching storms repeatedly weaken, split, or miss the areas north of South Mountain. The response of the Little Lehigh Creek says it all. The creek is now at or near bankfull—the first time I have personally seen it at that level in more than four months. While the heavier rainfall has obviously created localized flooding concerns, we should not lose sight of the larger issue. Much of the Lehigh Valley has needed substantial, sustained rainfall for months. This event finally delivered enough water to provide meaningful soil-moisture recharge, improve streamflow, and give agricultural areas the soaking rainfall they badly needed. One heavy rainfall period does not erase months of precipitation and groundwater deficits, but this is certainly a major improvement and hopefully the beginning of a change in the pattern rather than another isolated event. After months of watching beneficial rainfall repeatedly miss the Lehigh Valley, 3.45 inches in three substantial rounds is a welcome sight.

starting to make a dent in the drought. Almost another inch of rain in thunderstorms in western Lehigh County this afternoon thus far..

finally, we received a share of the golden rain events today. Nealry an inch in brief but training heavy PWAT t- storms. Could surely use more of it tomorrow. It was a million dollar rain for the ag business in western Lehigh and eastern Berks County today. Much more is needed tomorrow but its a start.