TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

NAM is warmer it appears so far through 18 and also less QPF. This could be a precursor to a big bust for most of NC. Ouch. Someone will get some snow though. 

GEFS ensemble members took a large tick up at 18z wowzers.

https://ibb.co/4JHKbNG

Garner, NC

46 and clearing skies

10 minutes ago, FatherNature said:

There was a boat fire in the gulf, any chance that warms the temps up in the Carolinas for this storm and we get all rain?

Seems legit. All the METs will now need to redo their forecast maps. What a dang shame that is. Torch for everyone now.

So, what are your IMBY predictions? I am going with 3 inches here in Garner, NC.

ECMWF still appears quite warm for most of NC and SC

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Can't wait for the first cliff diver to step over the edge after that GFS run 

I will be that sacrificial lamb. Tell everyone I tried to hang on but the GFS pushed me off the cliff. Byeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

2 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

GFS has backed off a bit on totals.

GEFS ensembles have backed off the last few runs as well. It looks like it will be a now casting storm.

GFS quick and out barely any snow as far as I can tell. Anyone have the CMC?

Rain line or sleet line creeps north every model run. Moving on up..........moving on up.........

Sleet line creeps higher on each NAM run and it did this time as well.

1 minute ago, griteater said:

The GEFS mean precip ticked south, just barely...matching the GFS move...they will probably lock in together now going forward

It also cut the total snowfall a little for many places in central/eastern nc

Just now, SnowDawg said:

Big difference between the temp issues on the NAM/GFS and the CMC/UKMET. NAM and GFS issue is mid level warm nose causing issues, most places with good precip are getting down into the 32-35 range which is fine for wet snow as long as it's cold above. CMC and UKMET really don't have a warm nose, they are just downright warm at the surface and they stay that way for the whole storm in a lot of places. 

I didn't know that. Thanks for sharing. It seems like the setup is slightly different on the models to a certain extent but temps are an issue regardless. It is the south, so that makes sense.

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

UKMET with a big jump north as well. Good trends 

Guessing temps are an issue? Almost all of the models are now showing temp issues. It is great to have more QPF, but without enough cold it is just cold rain. Any chance all the models bust on temps?

1 minute ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Who cares about the CMC? I thought the ICON was the king of all models.

Well, it goes ECMWF.........UKMET.........CMC.........AND ICON. In that order, but we can all hug the NAM until it eventually figures out it is dreadfully wrong. 

CMC will continue the cliff diving tonight. I will jump off the cliff first. Bye everyone. 

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Wildreman is that you?

They say I remind people of everyone that has ever said no to dreams of snow

Just now, wncsnow said:

But what do you think about blackbirds?

Lol haha I think snow chances are dwindling and this thread is about to turn into an online insane asylum.

Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

Neither was he          

I can try one for everyone and then you can see how accurate it looks? 

10 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Could be. Without ms paint maps, it's hard to tell   

Just a programming peasant trying to make it in this cruel world. I do have ms paint but not good with it. Have no idea who the guy is you all are referring to. Hate crushing dreams with logical thought processes but hey life is tough. I am at heart a weather weenie like everyone on here.

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol at bailing based on the ICON

Bailing due to ICON, UKMET, and ECMWF.

ICON is all rain, and so it begins. Don't say that the ECMWF and UKMET didn't warn ya. Could be a lot of broken hearts throughout the Carolinas Thurs-Fri. Who knows though. 

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I'm not going to bicker on the storm thread but... You said "trending towards all rain" as the first frame of precip arrived. Of course, the run turned out to be an absolute hammer for much of the state. I'm not saying not to post what you see but at least wait to speak or back it up with something of substance, not just blanket statements. You're not the only one. Sorry if I come off wrong, there's just a lot of activity on here and clutter really dampens the great meteorological chat we come here for, especially as we work towards storm mode

It was warmer though. It appears to be trending towards the ECMWF, which is almost entirely rain. Same with the UKMET. This is not unfounded.

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Real in-depth analysis... Wait till the actual precip moves in. Goodness gracious people

So, it is not warmer than the last run?

Warmer run from the NAM is incoming. It has slowly been trending warmer each run. Maybe trending toward all rain?