TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

ECMWF ensemble members are around 28 of the 50 with hits on central NC. A few others outside of those hit ENC. A few hit both Carolinas. That is a good spread. A little above 50% is good at this range.

Well, who is ready for spring? This Thurs-Fri looks unlikely now.

1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

GFS suites hr84

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Much less snow. Ouch, that is not a good trend for snow lovers. Still time to change.

GFS trended further north, but temps are still an issue. Very similar to ECMWF. Light snow in ENC, but that is about it. Interesting.

ECMWF trended toward the CMC, but not as cold. Looks like the low is closer to the coast. Temps are an issue, as always. Good overall trends, just need a little more cold air.

1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

GEFS

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Looks down from earlier

Does the ECMWF have snow anywhere in the Carolinas? Looks highly suppressed.

Anyone have GEFS members?

Hmmm, me likey the CMC. Good trend north and colder. More believable than the GFS. Now we wait for the king. 

CMC looks warmer out to 72 hours. Also, much more moisture on Wednesday. Hmmm. Speeding up moisture arrival, maybe?

Temps are going to be an issue after all. Only cold enough for snow in the mountains. GFS shows more moisture but much warmer than previously thought. Just can't win for trying this winter. 

Guessing UKMET is similar. All we need is the CMC and ECMWF to confirm it.

This winter has been the worst one in my lifetime, so far.

ECMWF is running. Anyone have an updated on it? Was it similar to 18z?

Any snow maps of 18z ECMWF?

Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

And here is the result for 18z

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Is the mean up or down from 12z in NC?

26 minutes ago, eyewall said:

12Z GFES ENS members:
 

Quite a few smaller events, some medium level events. Really, better than I thought given the OP run. Most of the GEFS members have snow in NC. What does the ensemble mean look like? Either way, now we wait for the EPS. 

It has snowed in a few deserts since we last had snow in central NC. Fun times

ECMWF was still suppressed and less cold air aloft. It seems to be set on this setup. I am guessing all the GEFS and GEPS ensemble members suck as well. Anyone have those?

5 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Why?  Another one liner without any reasoning. Come on. You absolutely know better. The GFS actually took a small step towards what it once had and yet you still post this.....sigh. Belongs in banter. Step up your game too. 

To be fair to eyewall, the CMC took a step toward even more suppression. The CMC has been more accurate than the GFS lately. Could things change? Sure, but right now, it is like being down 30 points at half time in a college basketball game. This winter has not shown the ability to make a comeback in a game like that. All the models are suppressed and seem to be fixating on that rather than bouncing back and forth. They are locked in.

Our last hope is the storm next Thurs-Fri. If it whiffs it is time for Spring.

When does the GEFS come out?

Lol GFS is slowly trending toward suppression. Always one step behind ECMWF. Seems like we need the ECMWF to show something soon or this will be rain in south Florida by tomorrow afternoon. Hmmmm.

Will be curious to see EPS. How did GEFS and GEPS look?

7 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Here's the last panel of the ukmet. Vaild 7am Thursday morning.

Is it cold enough in central NC for snow on the UKMET

17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Looks like the CMC, suppressed. 

Either it is to much cold or to little. Need that perfect balance. EPS will save us. NW trend will save us.