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TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

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Everything posted by TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

  1. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Can you share the temp trends during that time?
  2. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    I asked for an educated view of why I am wrong. I didn't attack or get disruptive. I asked a legit question. Answer it and show me where I am wrong so I can learn.
  3. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Show me the increase from GEFS 12z to 18z. Educate me. Looks like a sharper cutoff to the NW to me.
  4. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    GEFS pushed snow totals further NW, following OP on showing less snow overall for most in the SE.
  5. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Looks like the low is further NW and close to cutting through the apps before transfer to coast. This is almost time to throw in the towel for everyone outside the mountains or upper Mid Atlantic.
  6. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Ah, there it is. Someone start the thread now. It is a "positive" tilt.
  7. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Just a few more runs and this is likely to be an all cold rain event. Wild swings though for sure.
  8. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    No other models show an apps runner..........yet.
  9. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Will be a cold rain in a few runs
  10. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    The models showing that no matter which way you spin it, decent snowstorms in the Carolinas have become more and more difficult to produce. It seems like it is nearly impossible for the right ingredients to match up. Without ensemble support, or consistent OP support, this is likely another coulda shoulda woulda been storm 20 years ago. Expect warmer trends to a cold rain for most or a suppressed look soon.
  11. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Cold air is lacking big time there. What did the EPS look like?
  12. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Yep, and that is not a trend we want to see continue in NC, south. VA is still very much in play with either option.
  13. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Sleet in Garner
  14. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Canadian model is much warmer than the previous run, out to hour 162. Snow is almost non-existent on the map for the south/SE.
  15. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Cold air will be an issue. People have mentioned that the models actually have a cold bias. Yikes.
  16. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Which kind of proves the point, either the system will have plenty of moisture with no cold (phase) or it will lack moisture but be somewhat cold. There is no true sweet spot to be found, as far as the models see it.
  17. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
  18. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    If the majority of members live in Northern Virginia then I agree. Maybe some hope for the mountains. However, mixing issues even in western NC is usually not a good sign for much of the southeast.
  19. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Yep, and this is the new norm for much of the southeast. So, look ahead a week and a half, it is all we will have. The models are starting to look the same way they did for the storm today for the 10th/11th system. Kicking the can to fab Feb. This storm on Friday simply doesn't have enough cold air and the models are showing that.
  20. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Isn't mentioning climate change a part of forecasting? Isn't previous analogues to be discussed for set ups and potential impacts? Isn't climate change a potential to change that discussion. We cannot just say that this happened this way in the past so expect this now if the climate is altered to a different state? So, it is worth bringing up as a wrench in forecasts based on previous expectations when models show something we used to see as a positive sign.
  21. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Could this just be the new normal? I feel like the climates have shifted NC to a climate similar to SC winters of old. Virginia is more like NC used to be. Snow line and cold winters have shifted north.
  22. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    I just don't see how we score here. We went from cold enough to not cold enough for many in a run. A few more runs like that and we may be talking about severe weather here in the SE. Either it will be suppressed and cold enough, or models say it will be stronger and warmer. Story of the past 4 to 5 years here in the SE for many. These are the type of events we used to cash in on.
  23. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    GFS is also quicker than its previous run. Something to keep an eye on.
  24. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    This is actually the best it has looked in some time set up wise. Now let's see if trends pull it in!
  25. TARHEELPROGRAMMER88
    Will be ready to make cold rain angels with the girls on Monday and we will make dead grass angels next weekend. Fun times ahead.
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