TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

Can you share the temp trends during that time?

I asked for an educated view of why I am wrong. I didn't attack or get disruptive. I asked a legit question. Answer it and show me where I am wrong so I can learn.

Show me the increase from GEFS 12z to 18z. Educate me. Looks like a sharper cutoff to the NW to me.

GEFS pushed snow totals further NW, following OP on showing less snow overall for most in the SE.

Looks like the low is further NW and close to cutting through the apps before transfer to coast. This is almost time to throw in the towel for everyone outside the mountains or upper Mid Atlantic.

Ah, there it is. Someone start the thread now. It is a "positive" tilt.

Just a few more runs and this is likely to be an all cold rain event. Wild swings though for sure.

No other models show an apps runner..........yet.

Will be a cold rain in a few runs

The models showing that no matter which way you spin it, decent snowstorms in the Carolinas have become more and more difficult to produce. It seems like it is nearly impossible for the right ingredients to match up. Without ensemble support, or consistent OP support, this is likely another coulda shoulda woulda been storm 20 years ago. Expect warmer trends to a cold rain for most or a suppressed look soon.

Cold air is lacking big time there. What did the EPS look like?

Yep, and that is not a trend we want to see continue in NC, south. VA is still very much in play with either option.

Sleet in Garner

Canadian model is much warmer than the previous run, out to hour 162. Snow is almost non-existent on the map for the south/SE.

Cold air will be an issue. People have mentioned that the models actually have a cold bias. Yikes.