The big ones get sniffed out early…even if this one does come together, the next week will have everything from “we are snow town USA” to “The base state is warm, move to Calgary if you want snow”
The cluster of lows near the benchmark on the 6z EPS is encouraging. To steal from the CWG:
Less than 1”…..20%
1-3………………..30%
3-6……………….40%
Und BECS?……10%
This is my first preliminary early call minus a map with some weenieism factored in, subject to change “forecast”.
I hear you. But even in the best setups, we still need some luck. I don’t think we need a lot to go right to hit this one big. Sometimes we are hoping for a miracle. Right now we just need the models to key in on a canonical look and get locked in!
We are in the game. Sure this thing could cut to Minneapolis or slide to Bermuda. But that is the song and dance for most trackable events around here. On to 0z.
Thanks @yoda! Looking forward to @Weather Will posting ensemble snow %. Nice to have a good pattern setting up early in the season. Now we just need some discrete threats and LUCK!
Just need patience. And luckily this time of year, we have time to be patient. The best window for us lowlanders is 12/15 - 2/15 from a climo standpoint. IF the models have the progression somewhat close we are in good shape heading into prime climo. That’s about all we can hope for IMO.
Pretty neat effect here in Montclair. Alternating between the sun poking out and heavy wind. But no rain. Right on the edge. Temp bouncing from hot in the sun to cold in the clouds lol