SnowGolfBro

I am calculating the risks of the situation as I understand it. The virus is a factor. How deadly it is, how quickly it spreads, are some more at risk than others, etc. The damage to people’s lives through Great Depression level unemployment, mental health, suicide, etc is the other factor. I offer this solution. Quarantine the elderly and immune compromised for 30 days. During that 30 days, incrementally begin opening parts of society that have been shutdown. Start with activities deemed the least risky. During that 30 days and then the following 30 days encourage good hygiene, hand washing, social distancing wherever possible and masks when using any essential services (because even the elderly and immune compromised will need to use essential services). After 30 days reassess if it is safe for the elderly and immune compromised. After 60 days reassess social distancing, etc. During this time continue to improve testing capabilities.

The point of those arguments is not necessarily to compare the number of deaths from viruses (flu deaths) or activities (car accident deaths). It’s to compare our tolerance to risk, specifically risk of death from our actions. People engage in all kinds of risky behaviors. Sometimes for thrills, sometimes to make a living and various other reasons. In the case of Covid, because it is particularly deadly and brand new the appetite for risk is very low. That is completely understandable. We are all dealing with the same reality. On March 15 my fear level of Covid was high and i supported all of the measures that i now support repealing. Not because the reality of Covid has changed, but because I’ve had time to understand the virus and steps i can take to limit my risk, while continuing to live my life close to normal. Others feel there is no safe way for society to continue until they have a better understanding of the virus and the risk associated with the virus. No one is wrong in my opinion, we just have a different calculation of the risk in our minds.

Then i will be wrong and the lockdowns will continue.

U are right.

Agreed at this point in time. I realize I’m in the minority on this board and public opinion. But i do think that will change in the coming weeks. May 15 is the date i have circled for when public support will begin to wane for widespread lockdowns.

At some point individuals have to be able to assess the risk for themselves. Just like people have been doing everyday for a long time with various other risk factors. Virologists can give us great tools to help us make those decisions. But i don’t think they should be setting public policy in the long term. If logical scientific methodology says we need 90 additional days of the current policies, then i would weigh that against what i believe the consequences of such policies over 90 additional days and make a decision. I’m not arguing that If u lock yourself in your basement u are less likely to get coronavirus. I’m just saying sooner rather than later that has to be an individual decision and not a collective one.

I think “well” would be defined as doing no worse than GA was doing prior to reopening. So perhaps take a snapshot in time on 4/24 and then reassess compared to that snapshot on 5/5. If there hasn’t been any significant increase in hospitalizations/deaths then you could say the decision turned out “well” i suppose.

What is the SHOULD criteria in your opinion?

I think we need to set some baselines for what we need to see to agree on when we should open up. Let’s use VA as an example. What number of daily deaths/new cases is reasonable in your opinion to open back up? Is it zero, is it 5 deaths a day, 10, 20 etc. You may look at the facts on a specified date and say it’s too soon and i may think we waited too long. My point is we need some agreement on what levels of the virus/deaths is acceptable vs what warrants additional lockdowns.

Im a reasonable guy. I know from my interactions with friends and family that they are fed up with the lockdowns. They have lost jobs, savings and in some cases hope. I would be okay if they put a restart date/plan out to the public even if that plan didn’t go into action until May 15 for example. I’m not it in a terrible position. I still have my job, albeit with a pay cut due to the virus, and my health. I’m not pushing the desire to “open back up” for selfish reasons. Not by a long shot. It’s for my family and friends who are all suffering both financially and mentally.

I’m not sure. I know as of now we have 324 deaths in the state. I know our hospitals and urgent cares are nowhere close to capacity or overwhelmed by the virus in VA. Again, I’m not saying tomorrow we wave a magic wand and start acting like nothing is happening. My opinion is we should begin easing lockdown protocols. Maybe start with opening up parks and playgrounds this week. Then opening up hair salons, retail stores, golf courses etc next week. Then opening up restaurants the following week after that. So we have a gradual easing back to normalcy.

Yes i want to see the lockdowns end. Perhaps not everywhere all at once. But I’m open to business being reopened and people making the decision to go or not go over the next few weeks. In VA we are not having a crisis like they are in NY or NJ. I think it should be a measured approach, but i think we need to begin the process immediately.

There is a difference between social distancing and lockdowns. And if you want to be a jerk about it then have it. I will continue posting my thoughts and opinions. I don’t support the lockdowns any longer. But i do support people making their own decisions. If u are in fear of the virus and wish to remain locked down you have the right to do so.

They are definitely going to have football. Maybe no fans or limited fans. But those guys want to play. They will take tests, sign waivers, whatever it takes. And the television contracts are enough to sustain the product if they have to go without fans IMO

Not to mention Tampa Bay has a legitimate core of wide receivers. So Gronk will see a lot of single coverage or zone. If he is healthy and ready to go that is a scary offense.

I know this. But you have got to cut some people some slack. A lot of good people made a ton of sacrifices for others over the last month and half. I think people can hold out another week or two but beyond that we need to start opening up minus the hotspots we have discussed.

No one is saying that 60,000 people dying is “not a big deal”. But some of us are saying that we have to have some perspective. People die from things all the time. And it’s always sad in my opinion. After predictions of over 2 million American deaths. We are now debating if it will reach 60,000 in the next few weeks. That is a tragedy and we can mourn the lives that have been and will be lost. But i would argue that if we had 100,000s of deaths at this point, the cries to return to normal would be far weaker and far fewer. But people were told something that didn’t pan out. We can argue whether it was social distancing, lock downs, warm weather, end of cold and flu season as to why we did so much better than predicted. But the bottom line is people are starting react to real numbers and hard data vs predictions and models.

I suppose the NYC metro area may be the exception, but i do think 100 deaths or less a day for the rest of the country is a real possibility.

Agreed. I’m not saying we won’t get to 60000. I honestly think by May 15 we will be under 100 deaths a day nationwide.

Maybe. And then again maybe not. The spread is going to slow naturally as cold and flu season winds to a close over the next couple weeks. This in conjunction with social distancing could Lead to a dramatic reduction in infection and death by early May. Also, i just saw that subways are still running in NYC. How in the world have we taken all of these measures around the country and possibly the single biggest spreader of disease is still running. Boggled my mind

My first though was at least everybody is inside in NYC.

Banks are allowing people to suspend payments for mortgages currently. Why do you presume that “only executives drawing multi million dollar salaries” would be affected? What evidence do u have for such a statement? I work in the financial services sector and have had detailed discussions with bank executives on exactly the scenario we are discussing. It’s way more complex than just shutting it down. It will cause some damage in the short term that can be mitigated. But all the people i trust on this subject have said that after 90 days it starts to get really hairy really fast. I think we are on a similar page here in the short term. It’s long term where we may disagree.

I’m telling you that this kind of arrangement can only work for about 90 days or so before real, devastating problems start to take shape in the banking, mortgage and bond markets. The proposition you are proposing is not a long term solution. Just saying you can freeze everything without consequences is not an accurate statement.

this is largely being done. Utilities are not shutting off service for nonpayment at least where i live. Mortgage banks are allowing payments to be missed in the short term. Interest still accrues. But this can only last about 90 days. The bond holders need to be paid and banks only have so much liquidity on their balance sheets. If the mortgage bond market crashes the pain inflicted will be catastrophic.

I was talking to my sister who is a nurse at Stanford University. I take her opinions seriously as she is on the front lines and very knowledgeable. One thing she mentioned is that cold and flu season comes to a pretty abrupt end in a couple weeks. We don’t know how how Covid will react because it’s new and we don’t know what we don’t know. But she sounded confident that things are getting better there and she feels like this factor is being overlooked. If (an unknown at the this point) the virus follows suit with other viruses we could see a pretty dramatic positive shift over the coming weeks.