If there is any hope left for the corridor, the 12z Euro did reduce ground temps by 3 degrees from 6z. If that holds or continues to trend colder at 18z. We have some life...until 0z
The winter storm watch is prudent even close in to the cities. The models don’t have to be “wrong” for Montclair to get 6-12 inches of snow. Add a touch more cold air and a bit more of an easy track and presto snowstorm!
There will come a time where we all have to come terms with reality (probably around 4pm Wednesday when rain and the occasional pinger and mangled flake are falling). But until then if a 2nd rate model gives me hope I’ll ride with it lol
Looks like the low is at the bench mark in panel one and moves NNE while deepening. If that happened verbatim and i get heavy rain, congrats Mother Nature lol.
Nothing with this storm is set in stone. This is a factor, but like others have noted there are lots of factors coming together. Well maybe the MOCO death band is set in stone lol