GSwizzle83

The lateweek system still has much potential in my mind! GFS slowly seems to be trending toward the EURO's thoughts, which is a good sign. I'm not all doom and gloom. Call me a glass half full kind of person.

The good news is in this situation is that the last few weeks the GFS has caved to the EURO solutions over time. On a side note, the NAM has done better this winter with many of these events than I remember. That is part of the reason why Sunday morning's event worries me a bit. It is slow to warm up the temps and historically we know this to be the case when trying to dislodge an arctic air mass coupled with any wetbulbing.

I am growing increasingly worried for a few hours on Sunday morning that there will be some freezing rain issues across portions of MO/KS. NAM definitely seems to indicate that and the GFS has been trending in that direction. It will, of course, eventually warm up for precip to turn to rain but multiple hours of freezing rain is not how I want to spend my Sunday.

I have a weatherbell account and I can't publicly post those images. When I get home I will look at the amounts and post amounts. I imagine it will change 50 times anyway... the main point being the models are generally pointing to a storm in the same time frame. That's a good sign.

EURO puts down a lot of ice on the 00z run as well. Should be an interesting week of tracking. Moderating temps will make conditions tricky, but will have more moisture to work with.

Definitely signals for a stormier pattern upcoming. We will have to see if there is any cold air to work with.

EURO puts down a nice storm about a week from now. But, it is a week from now so we will assume it is crazy until it gets closer. Best thing to do to avoid getting our hopes up. On the plus side, have a dusting (a generous term for what we have) of snow that has fallen overnight.

Madison County roadways have some scattered slick spots, too, so it isn't just confined to the NWA metro it looks like. Edit: WWA has been expanded to included Fayetteville and Ft. Smith (among other areas).

GFS says it's going to feel like summer time by next weekend... of course, just one model run but yeesh!

Flurries have transitioned to freezing drizzle in KC per Gary Lezak, NBC 41.

Thoughts on freezing drizzle potential? I have heard some rumbles about it. A couple of hundredths with these temps will make roads awful.

Boring and dry... but the next 7 days (minus tomorrow) are going to be cold.

Yeah, they have sort of started to converge. It is a cold but dry solution.

Is that a typical model bias for each or just the way they are reading this pattern?

Am I missing something here? I have had two different people today (on other sites) tell me there isn't much difference in EURO and GFS temps. From what I see, 12z Monday shows a -20 at SGF and the EURO shows 18 above zero. That's almost a 40º temp difference. Am I missing something?

A couple of interesting model notes. First of all, the GFS wants to drop us into the deep freeze this upcoming weekend with highs on New Year's Day not getting above zero for many of us. The EURO, on the other hand, says what arctic air. I am wondering what the biases are for these models? The GFS has been sticking to its guns the last few days, but we know reliability and consistency are not the same. Secondly, while the GFS is the coldest over the next ten days the EURO is wetter. It is a trade off I guess.

Merry Christmas to all! GFS says bone chilling cold and the EURO says "what cold?" Just another day of following model runs. Hope you all have a wonderful day.

Lots of signals for a couple of rounds of wintry precip this week. Set up looks more icy and sleety to me, but that can and likely will change.

EURO and GFS both have a mid to late week storm. That's a good sign... I guess.

Just under 1.5" here on the NW side of Monett. Snow plow came through while ago. Been a while since I have heard that sound. Nice glaze on the trees of ice, especially on the trees.

NWS SGF Facebook live said Tulsa is in the process of issuing a WWA.

Agreed. They have time to massage amounts slowly.

This is a tough spot. You don't want to raise it drastically because of the borderline profiles and the sharp cutoff, but at the same time... if this verifies in some way (taking into account ground warmth) then the reputation takes a hit... on Christmas weekend nonetheless. This is not an enviable position.

Puts down 1" for JLN, UMN, and SGF. 3" for places up around COU. Nothing for NE OK and just a dusting for Rogers... that is about the southern extent.

I stand by my original post that I would take the cold over the snow on the models. When the cold is entrenched, it is easier to get a disturbance to bring some snow. Now we are seeing the cold leaving. The moisture may be there but without the cold then we don't get anything of significance. Maybe the models will swing back to the cold.