GSwizzle83

Sorry if my post was confusing. I meant that compaction was an issue because of the size of the flakes and not that the flake size led to solar radiation lowering totals. For example, just saw the SGF recorded .75" of liquid equivalent yet only had a little over 6" of snow.

Wound up with 6" here... I think. Lots of drifting. If the models hadn't looked so promising we would all have been excited with this result. That's the expectation game, I guess. I do think that there are some questions I still have about the models missing this. There were some signals, I agree. I think compaction and solar radiation may have played a role, too, because the flakes were so small. I don't know if that is part of the issue or not in the cold. Worth considering. I guess that is why this hobby is never boring. Lucy is always waiting around the corner to move the football...

I remain optimistic in portions of MO and AR (along with far NE OK) that we are going to cash in. That warm nose is wreaking havoc in portions of OK though. I wouldn't want to be from OKC east on I-40 right now in this icy mess. US-75 is closed south of Tulsa because of so many slideoffs.

21z RAP is going gangbusters... it is very unusual to see precip actually increase on the models in the leadup to the event. Usually it is letdown city.

What is the Kuchera initializing snow ratios at on the NAM?

Here is the official SGF graphic...

Also, put me on the list of those that find the probabilities a waste of my time and confusing to the general public.

I continue to be impressed by the remarkable consistency of the models. Of course, fine details are being worked out and changing from run to run (and model to model), but this has been locked in for several days now. Tomorrow will be inside 48 hours.

WINTER STORM WATCHES out for the SGF CWA: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. There are medium to high chances (50-75%) of snowfall totals exceeding 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Kansas and central, east central, south central, southwest, and west central Missouri. * WHEN...From late Monday night through late Tuesday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

Doug Heady has a generalized 6-12" for much of S KS and S MO. Believes sleet may cause lower totals across OK and AR. More of that area is in the 1-3" or 3-6" band. Higher amounts closer to KS border.

I keep waiting for the football to be yanked away, but it hasn't happened yet.

Part (although not much) of the reason for the ICON's epic numbers is because it lays down a nice snow late tomorrow into Sunday morning, too. Snow upon snow... Things have been pretty consistent. Something has to go awry. Right?

Yep. I am being very cautious. I do like the trend late Saturday though. Shall see if that continues.

12z models less favorable for weekend and next week. It is one run, but knowing our luck... haven't looked at ensembles.

Temps continue to remain about 2-3 degrees below guidance here. I am below freezing now for the first time.