JVscotch

My gut says we don’t. 1988-1989 was a strong La’Niña vs last year’s El Niño. Last year didn’t get a chance to really do its magic but these shifts with the La’Nina to be closer to neutral, the anomalies beneath equatorial surface and the interesting MJO activity earlier, I think we are just getting started. I doubt wall-to-wall cold but the “best case scenario” that this winter had, even though was a lower percentage chance when starting the month, looks to be occurring hopefully. Will need to monitor the patterns and trends to see if cold keeps winning out and how some of these storms behave over the next few weeks.

I think that trend down on the map in the past week is another “brief dip” that’s about to bounce up significantly if the upcoming pattern comes close to fruition.

How many of the neutral years were preceded by El Niños?

18z Icon actually trended better and shows snow NW of the cities and getting very close to a changeover for a bit further east.

I saw decent flurries this morning in Gambrills around 11 am or so

Interesting. Though the U.S has a lot more lift like the stronger years. Generally with your thoughts though for the further west forcing will help us win more times this winter compared to normal or the warmer/stronger years, especially as we head into mid-winter.

I felt like 2013-2014 had it’s fair share of cold powder but I know it was mixed with a couple wetter events.

The upper level low in the second and bigger phase of the February 10th storm had temps drop to upper teens/low 20s and produced 10-12” just east/north east of dc. That was an awesome event and had strong winds.

I’m quite shocked how unstable it is outside already. May have the highest cape values this early compared to any other time this summer that I can remember. Even mid-level lapse rates aren’t too shabby. Shear could be better of course but definitely decent parameters in place. I haven’t really been following this event too closely outside of chance of storms/rain over several days.

I think most are talking the second half of spring into half of June. Usually we start feeling summer temps in May, but not this year. Definitely a cooler start. But July turned around in comparison for sure.

Right. They were around 25 inches (1899-1900) and 20 inches at bwi. Maybe that could mean a 30+ inch winter now if temps can cooperate enough. Would be nice to have a biggie but maybe we can squeeze out two!

The front-end event on the 24th is back on the CMC. That event could happen if that northern stream does setup the confluence behind it and the pacific wave is able to run into it quick enough. Plus the timing is ideal (as-is) for snow to fall at night. Obvious caveats apply; biggest being the winter of 2022-2023.

Exactly. You can see the flow over the northeast is still confluent and snow is actually breaking out to our southwest.

Exactly what I thought. Better than 12z NAM and each of the main globals (not ensembles).

The one thing that has started popping up on all models (though it’s around 216-240 hours out) is a block forming around Scandinavia and maybe could be a saving grace or at least could add some hope against the Pacific if it can retrograde. We’ll see but hoping for whatever we can squeeze out.