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StantonParkHoya

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Everything posted by StantonParkHoya

  1. A bit of an optimist take here for those east of W-S --- I have seen kickers emerge out west before that were poorly modeled. This isn't set in stone.
  2. Can already foresee the homerism regionally. Before the Euro runs, can we please be mindful that just because you like the run, doesn’t mean everyone on the forum will (ie. West vs eastern NC). Thanks.
  3. Not a great run for Triangle-east at all. Was not expecting an inland runner.
  4. Interesting this has gone from a Saturday afternoon storm for Triangle folks to a Sunday one.
  5. Def a little west of where you’d like it for the Triangle. Lots of CLT and Greenville SC folks on here.
  6. Seems to be some timing differences with Euro starting in triangle afternoon Saturday with GFS more late evening
  7. If we’ve got this SER going into February, you can cancel the season. I don’t know if anyone has noticed, but spring gets started now right after Valentines.
  8. It’s honestly amazing to be “tracking” pre-thanksgiving
  9. Yeah, I mean I don't think we're getting wall-to-wall cold. Gonna need to time moisture with the cold, just like every year. As long as we avoid a relentless WAR or pac firehose, I will take it.
  10. We have also seen an almost perma-SER set up for years and years. It's tough to distinguish what is unfortunate November pattern vs. climate change.
  11. Had a frost in central NC this morning. Earliest one in years. Got down to 38.
  12. There’s no guarantee the low cuts off either
  13. If the GFS is off by 2000 miles, we will get a landfall in the SE
  14. This time of year, any erosion in the ridging is gonna lead to a recurve. Yes it may get closer, but someone posted how anomolous it is for a storm originating east of 55W to reach USML in October.
  15. GFS has the thing 600 miles EAST of Bermuda for goodness sake
  16. The Euro would end up a fish storm too. Most guidance has it that way.
  17. He is not forecast to get near this. Closest approach is about 250 miles from Cape Hatteras.
  18. Seems to imply an absorption with the weak trough traversing NE, which seems unlikely.
  19. It’s like the equivalent of being in Warning criteria snow event, anticipating a foot and not even seeing a flake. Unfortunately have been a part of both.
  20. Pretty wild that this was a level 4 and even made national news.
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