StantonParkHoya
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Everything posted by StantonParkHoya
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notable that only one GEFS member goes south of Tampa with a very large contingent into AL or even LA/MS
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You can feel the wishcasting on here based on which side of the coin people chime in with
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12z CMC takes it into Gulf Shores, AL
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Can we please cut the banter?
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Quite weak
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I mean he’s right, these air masses are more akin to mid/late October
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If by just west, you mean 150 miles west. It’s noticeably west of 12z.
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It’s a low likelihood
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Wow. We said there was no way of avoiding a US landfall, but life finds a way.
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One notable for those thinking eastern threat — the runs most east are the quickest (when ridging is to the west), by the time high/heights get overhead and east, storm is out. Thinking most likely is a somewhat weak entry north of Tampa, riding northward along I-95 til an exit near Wilmington, NC.
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I’m skeptical, it would also be dealing with roaring sheer and dry air entrainment.
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Indeed. If it were the 90s, without long range modeling, we wouldn’t even be talking about this.
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We’re gonna spend 100k words on a thread for a Cat 1 that barely makes landfall
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Feels more like a mid-October storm with the temps and overall synoptic pattern ahead and behind it. Chilly in the east. edit: also noticeable is the drop in intensity is now uniform in all hurricane models once in northern gulf, likely reacting to dry air/sheer accompanying the trough.
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Ironically, Levi mentions a stronger solution early is more likely to tug west as it feels impacts of northeasterly sheer.
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CMC has temps in the low 50s in NW South Carolina at landfall. More like a nor’easter.
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GFS already 300 miles NE of 6z
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The mean is Mobile after a landfall in Cancun
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I meant post FL crossing
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Which is weird. Still think that trough would shove it OTS.
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GFS ensemble further SW as well. Looks like a cluster into New Orleans.
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Might get a Cancun landfall edit: it does, totally new solution here
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GFS noticeably southwest of 6z
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Bus ticket to Atlanta on 6z
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Most GEFS members that cross over to the Atlantic side look to be heading OTS however
