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StantonParkHoya

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Everything posted by StantonParkHoya

  1. 12z Euro speeds this up a good bit. By Friday morning it has it over Roanoke, VA
  2. I’ll toss QPF but it’s had about 15 runs now with a second landfall near SAV/Hilton Head. Can’t discount our 2nd best model.
  3. Unless the GFS were to verify. Only gives ~3 inches at RDU. Im also dubious this is still a TS
  4. Think you’re letting radar hallucinations conflate fixed position. It’s currently just south of Waycross, GA, pretty close to where it’s supposed to be.
  5. Watch Levi’s video from today where he details the difference
  6. There’s a difference in making it out to shelf water and Gulf Stream
  7. That’s exactly the difference I’m noting. GFS is just as plausible as other outcomes.
  8. For RDU it matters to the tune of about 6 inches
  9. Dies waiting for a flight out at Atlanta Hartsfield
  10. 18z GFS landfall near SAV/Hilton Head edit: then drives it back to Valdosta. At some point we have to acknowledge it may be onto something
  11. Idk. Yesterday NHC forecast it being in GA by 5, yet it’s still in FL
  12. Notable that all of them keep her as barely a TS at landfall
  13. 18z runs really tightened up with a landfall near CHS
  14. The slow jog across land is grinding her up
  15. Best thing that could happen would be a deteriorating storm going into landfall
  16. There are so many weenies in here it looks like an Oscar Meyer factory
  17. This board goes through the same sequence every storm. Wobbles are normal. Direction evens out over time.
  18. Banding is good but structure looks pretty rough still
  19. Feels like a lot of weenie casting on Twitter about RI. People know we can have just run of the mill cat 1s right?
  20. Might be fighting some dry air intrusion?
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