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StantonParkHoya

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Everything posted by StantonParkHoya

  1. StantonParkHoya
    Pretty wild path on GFS. I’m skeptical of such an anomalously digging trough in late September to cause a full recurve. A landfall Mobile-Big Bend then NE seems more plausible.
  2. StantonParkHoya
    Call me skeptical that a TC zips from the shores of Ol’ Mexico completely across the gulf to Florida like that
  3. StantonParkHoya
    18z GFS with some big changes. Less trough dig, more ridging into gulf, takes Cat 4/5 into Louisiana coast
  4. StantonParkHoya
    Less dust when the area is flooding
  5. StantonParkHoya
    Seems like the model average is around Mobile
  6. StantonParkHoya
    Will be interesting to follow the timing and the trough interaction. GFS does it again but the set up over the US MW is quite different each run.
  7. StantonParkHoya
    Pretty sure those are all squall related. I don’t see anything from Topsail over 35.
  8. StantonParkHoya
    Saving grace for immediate coastal areas it pertains for fresh water flooding is three-fold: 1) sandy base soils allow for maximum drainage; 2) it’s post-summer-season, so lower population; 3) most houses are on stilts.
  9. StantonParkHoya
    All I can think of is if this was snow
  10. StantonParkHoya
    Definitely feels like a fall coastal, not tropical
  11. StantonParkHoya
    If 3 inches of rain is “substantial”, then sure
  12. StantonParkHoya
    Models tightening up on location now. Georgetown, SC has been the hot spot last few years.
  13. StantonParkHoya
    6z GEFS looks like between CHS and MYR as maybe a TD note: RAH believes this will be a subtropical system
  14. StantonParkHoya
    ‘Twas a joke. Just not much of a storm.
  15. StantonParkHoya
    18z GFS says it may not rain in Raleigh
  16. StantonParkHoya
    12z Euro is… not much
  17. StantonParkHoya
    ICON looks like a nor’easter lol. DMV folks would be hyped if it was January.
  18. StantonParkHoya
    12z GFS has this inland by Monday morning. Sped the time up.
  19. StantonParkHoya
    Please tell me we’re not trying to extrapolate the HRRR out to 84 hours on here
  20. StantonParkHoya
    From a sensible weather standpoint, it doesn’t really matter much, it’s generally the same impacts.
  21. StantonParkHoya
    0z GFS with a subtropicalish looking weak low coming into SE NC. Couple inches of rain.
  22. StantonParkHoya
    NHC not convinced the low becomes tropical. Could be subtropical.
  23. StantonParkHoya
    You mean the Austin that is 175 miles inland? Not sure what you’d expect there even with a cat 4 on the coast.
  24. StantonParkHoya
    it’s just an oddity because all of the small number of storms have found land it is objectively a quiet season so far when your point of measure is a predicted 25 named storms
  25. StantonParkHoya
    12z Euro CMC and GFS with…. not much… through 10 days. Gets us to mid Sept.
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