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HeadInTheClouds

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Everything posted by HeadInTheClouds

  1. HeadInTheClouds
    Latest Hrrr is giving all of Dutchess county over a foot and GFS just went nuclear. Radar looks good also. I think we will do well.
  2. HeadInTheClouds
    Just about on schedule. Most models had it changing over about 3z.
  3. HeadInTheClouds
    Nice. 34 and mostly snow now by me also.
  4. HeadInTheClouds
    35 with mostly rain and a few flakes mixed in.
  5. HeadInTheClouds
    This storm must be a nightmare for NWS offices. Albany still hasn't updated it's 5am storm briefing but they are generally the latest to do these updates.
  6. HeadInTheClouds
    18z 12K Nam gives me 20, 3k 12, and HRRR 16. Waiting for the RGEM to give me 3 or 4 to balance it out.
  7. HeadInTheClouds
    Bust potential is huge on this storm both ways. Just IMBY 12z suite has me anywhere between 3 and 18, lol. Nothing like a tight consensus 12 hours before game time. 17z hrrr has me getting 13 inches by 11z. I'm still thinking 8-10 total.
  8. HeadInTheClouds
    I guess they are not just looking at CMC/RGEM.
  9. HeadInTheClouds
    CMC is even worse, lol but that was to be expected. We will know pretty soon but I'm not buying it.
  10. HeadInTheClouds
    It doesn't mean it is right. I think it's light on the precip and it's the only model that shows less than 6 inches up here. It shows a pathetic QPF output in the hours after rain changes to snow when every other model shows heavy precip. Every other model also shows anywhere between 9 and 18 at 10:1. Why should I believe the RGEM?
  11. HeadInTheClouds
    00z suite is for the most part showing a max snowfall area around I90 and very little near NYC metro. What happens in between is still TBD. I'm thinking 6-12 around I84, with the lower amounts in the valleys.
  12. HeadInTheClouds
    All these models are on crack.
  13. HeadInTheClouds
    I guess people may come off the ledge since the Ukie flip flopped again but for the better.
  14. HeadInTheClouds
    It depends on where you are and the dynamics at play. NWS Albany talking 8-10:1 in their zone.
  15. HeadInTheClouds
    Not up here. NWS Albany saying they expect 8-10:1 for much of storm.
  16. HeadInTheClouds
    I don't know about model consensus right now. FWIW the Ukie, CMC, RGEM, and 18z Nam are all showing less than 6 inches when using less than 10:1 ratio.
  17. HeadInTheClouds
    I just got a WSW issued here in Dutchess which is surprising because NWS Albany isn't an office that issues advisories/watches well in advance like other offices.
  18. HeadInTheClouds
    These models have no clue still. 18z nam gives me 15 inches less than 12z, lol.
  19. HeadInTheClouds
    That model hasn't been that great either. It's usually too warm and too light on precip.
  20. HeadInTheClouds
    I was speaking in general terms, not just this storm. I don't trust that model. Actually I don't trust any 1 model.
  21. HeadInTheClouds
    Some people think it's a good model but all I see is flip flopping run to run and questionable thermals.
  22. HeadInTheClouds
    33 with some light snow. Picked up 2 inches for a total of 17.5 this season.
  23. HeadInTheClouds
    34 with moderate snow, sticking to colder surfaces.
  24. HeadInTheClouds
    38 and rain right now IMBY.
  25. HeadInTheClouds
    Still hate 10:1 maps in this setup. Do Pivotal 10:1 maps count sleet as snow?
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