HeadInTheClouds

I forgot about that but it was only a dusting to half inch by me. I know you guys got a little more.

So far it's snowed west, south, and north of us this year, and soon to be east of us. Here it's just

Temps dropping like a rock here. Already 23 with a forecast low of 17.

Satellite imagery shows the center is on eastern edge of the cone. Correct me if I'm wrong.

NHC still has storm going right over NYC.

84/78 here. Yikes.

Expecting more rain today and this evening up here in mid hudson valley than Fay. Only picked up .5 yesterday. 87/73 right now.

Just like tracking winter storms models still suck. We are about 30 hours from rain beginning and models are all over the place with track and areas of heavy rain.

35 and moderate snow here now. Pretty cool.

39 with rain/snow

Picked up an inch of snow/sleet today. Right now 33 and cloudy.

It absolutely is needed. 5-9 inches of heavy snow can cause problems and it is heavily elevation dependent like the warning says. I'm 20 miles north of 84 in valley and expecting no more than 2 inches. 3-4 inches possible as you get closer to Albany.

I'm thinking 1-2 inches well N and W of city in valley locations. Elevation will be your friend with this storm.

I feel like Rip Van Winkle who just woke up from his slumber. All models give at least snow to rain N and W with the Euro being most aggressive. Hmmm. Will be watching this one.

It's called sarcasm.

Don't worry everybody. 18z GFS has something brewing at hour 384. Lock it up.

The GooFuS is unreliable beyond 5 days. Why do they still run it out to 384 hours? What purpose does it serve?

The GFS sucks but this is not an all rain event for those north of city. All models show some front end snows, especially mid hudson valley and north. Right now I would still say 1-2 inches around 84 before changeover and 2-4 up to I90. Similar to totals last night.

All models have some front end snow north of NYC. Again, the further north the more snow. Right now I think around and north of 84 sees 1-2, maybe 3 inches before changeover. You have to be north of I90 to see all snow.

Absolutely. ICON is terribad.

It does. It doesn't mean it will verify though. I believe it was wrong with yesterday's low in the medium range. It had it well west of our area at this time frame and we all know it basically went over the area. It has not been good this winter just like all the rest.

Yes, I know, I'm still expecting an inch or so of snow/sleet and some zr before the rain. North of 84 should see that. I'm not so sure about back end snow on Friday though.

NWS Albany discussion for peeps in northern sections. Still calling for 1-2 inches snow/sleet then some ice late wednesday/early Thursday. They also mention precip possibly changing back to snow as 3rd wave moves NE on Friday. The high pressure area will be exiting off the New England coast and low pressure will be lifting from the Tennessee Valley towards the upper Ohio River Valley. Warm advection will be occurring and a period precip will be moving northward towards the area from the mid Atlantic states, arriving after midnight for far southern areas and reaching northern areas by the late night hours. Initially, the temp profile is cold enough for all snow, but warming temps aloft will quickly allow this to changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Most areas should see a light accumulation of snow (about 1 or 2 inches) before mixed precip begins. There could be a glaze of ice (0.10 inch or less) and a dusting of sleet within the mixed precip as well. Temps will be warming in the boundary layer as well, with the southerly flow and no blocking high keeping the low level cold air in place. As a result, surface temps look to rise above freezing for valley areas by the mid to late morning, changing any precip over to rain. High terrain areas of the Adirondacks and Greens may linger with some freezing rain into the afternoon, but the bulk of the precip will be winding down by that point, as the best isentropic lift shifts away from the area. Another wave of low pressure will be developing across the mid Atlantic States and this will be lifting northeast along the eastern seaboard for Thursday night into Friday. Although there should be a break in precip from about Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening, steady precip will be arriving once again for Thursday night. There are still some differences in the models regarding the exact track of this storm system, which will have an impact on p-types. Although the best moisture flux and heaviest precip should be mainly east of the area across New England, our area should still be seeing some steady and occasionally moderate precip for late Thursday night into Friday morning. As the wave of low pressure lifts northeast along the coast, colder air (both at the surface and aloft) will rush into the region from the northwest. This will allow for a changeover back to snow, first occurring across high terrain and northwestern areas, for late Thursday night into Friday. There still are significant model differences on when this occurs and how much precip falls after the changeover. The latest 12z GFS is an outlier, even when compared to the 12z GEFS members, so our forecast is closer to a compromise of the 12z NAM/ECMWF, which favors a colder solution and snow prolonging through the day on Friday. As of right now, a light to moderate accumulation of snow is possible, especially for northern and high terrain areas. Temperatures will be warmest on Friday morning in the mid 20s to mid 30s and falling during the daytime. By later in the day, gusty northwest winds will be developing as well, as the storm really cranks up over eastern New England.

Do you know what Euro is depicting as far as snow late Wednesday-Thursday morning? My forecast is for snow/sleet/ZR during that time period. I'm thinking 1 maybe 2 max for snow/sleet.

You are right. It used to be far superior than the others before the "upgrade", now its only slightly better than CMC and GooFuS.