HeadInTheClouds

NWS Albany discussion for peeps in northern sections. Still calling for 1-2 inches snow/sleet then some ice late wednesday/early Thursday. They also mention precip possibly changing back to snow as 3rd wave moves NE on Friday. The high pressure area will be exiting off the New England coast and low pressure will be lifting from the Tennessee Valley towards the upper Ohio River Valley. Warm advection will be occurring and a period precip will be moving northward towards the area from the mid Atlantic states, arriving after midnight for far southern areas and reaching northern areas by the late night hours. Initially, the temp profile is cold enough for all snow, but warming temps aloft will quickly allow this to changeover to sleet and freezing rain. Most areas should see a light accumulation of snow (about 1 or 2 inches) before mixed precip begins. There could be a glaze of ice (0.10 inch or less) and a dusting of sleet within the mixed precip as well. Temps will be warming in the boundary layer as well, with the southerly flow and no blocking high keeping the low level cold air in place. As a result, surface temps look to rise above freezing for valley areas by the mid to late morning, changing any precip over to rain. High terrain areas of the Adirondacks and Greens may linger with some freezing rain into the afternoon, but the bulk of the precip will be winding down by that point, as the best isentropic lift shifts away from the area. Another wave of low pressure will be developing across the mid Atlantic States and this will be lifting northeast along the eastern seaboard for Thursday night into Friday. Although there should be a break in precip from about Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening, steady precip will be arriving once again for Thursday night. There are still some differences in the models regarding the exact track of this storm system, which will have an impact on p-types. Although the best moisture flux and heaviest precip should be mainly east of the area across New England, our area should still be seeing some steady and occasionally moderate precip for late Thursday night into Friday morning. As the wave of low pressure lifts northeast along the coast, colder air (both at the surface and aloft) will rush into the region from the northwest. This will allow for a changeover back to snow, first occurring across high terrain and northwestern areas, for late Thursday night into Friday. There still are significant model differences on when this occurs and how much precip falls after the changeover. The latest 12z GFS is an outlier, even when compared to the 12z GEFS members, so our forecast is closer to a compromise of the 12z NAM/ECMWF, which favors a colder solution and snow prolonging through the day on Friday. As of right now, a light to moderate accumulation of snow is possible, especially for northern and high terrain areas. Temperatures will be warmest on Friday morning in the mid 20s to mid 30s and falling during the daytime. By later in the day, gusty northwest winds will be developing as well, as the storm really cranks up over eastern New England.

Do you know what Euro is depicting as far as snow late Wednesday-Thursday morning? My forecast is for snow/sleet/ZR during that time period. I'm thinking 1 maybe 2 max for snow/sleet.

You are right. It used to be far superior than the others before the "upgrade", now its only slightly better than CMC and GooFuS.

I agree they both suck and all globals have been bad this year IMO. I still won't totally dismiss any model within 4 days.

Yes, thats why I was asking for you to clarify. Latitude will play an important part in who sees what.

What area exactly? 50 miles north of city should see some snow from second wave.

But if they were showing a warmer solution with all rain you would be jumping on them like a pitbull on a poodle.

Latest discussion from NWS Albany about mid-late week potential if anybody cares. Wed night into THU...A full latitude positively tilted mid and upper level trough moves into the Central Plains with a strong mid and upper level jet along the eastern portion of the trough over the eastern CONUS. Initially over running pcpn could break out Wed night with snow or a mixture of pcpn types. For now, we continue snow and rain as the main ptypes but the GEFS/ECMWF are indicating some sleet and freezing rain may be possible. Also, some light to moderate snow accumulations are possible. We will continue to wait for a non cacophonous tune from the medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance. Lows in the mid teens to 20s are likely Wed night with mainly mid 20s to mid and and upper 30s on Thu. Thu night through Friday...A large amount of spread continues in the guidance here with the 12Z ECMWF indicating the mid and upper level longwave trough becoming negatively tilted with the primary sfc wave remaining west of the northern Appalachian Mtns, which would support a warmer solution, while the 12Z CMC and some of the NAEFS/GEFS are similar, the latest WPC shows support with an an occluded front moving through. The 12Z GFS has a coastal wave moving from the Delmarva Region to eastern Long Island Friday morning with a decent snow event for a large portion of the area. WPC does not favor this scenario, and based on the muddled and chaotic medium range guidance we are not confident in the 12Z GFS either. The 12Z GFS has a much flatter mid and upper level trough too. Needless to say, a moderate to heavy pcpn system with rain/snow or mixed pcpn is possible. It could also be windy depending where the primary cyclone tracks. Temps still look to run above early FEB climatological normals.

I'm north of 84 and when both Euro and GFS show a period of possibly significant frozen precip only 5 days out I'm paying attention.

Not snow where? Big difference between NYC, Long Island and 50 miles N and W in HV. Listening to you I should have 2 inches so far, yet I have 17.5 this season.

It still has pretty decent accumulations N and W.

Thats a good run on 12z GFS for N and W with everything shifting south and colder. Dicey thermals though so things could easily change with this being 5 days out.

33 and light snow here too. Dusting.

Finished January 8 degrees AN and only 4 inches of snow. Brutal.

Yes, after hour 330 it shows some snow and then deep freeze. What could possibly go wrong?

It's been consistent in showing a system for the fish. The 06z was only run to show a hit.

To add insult to injury 12z GFS takes low on the 7th OTS although obviously its way to early to be looking at that. In general I think GFS is a lousy model and they should limit it to 240 hours like the rest. What is the point of going out farther on an operational?

A sandstorm.

The NAVGEM and ICON, lol.

Yes it is but it's not like we haven't seen back loaded winters before. We can still get plenty thru mid-march, it's still winter.

I definitely wouldn't get my hopes up for this weekend. It really does look it will be wide right with maybe light snow/rain in area. I think we need to wait until 2nd week in February to see something significant.

This is just common sense. I don't trust the models beyond 72 hours let alone a week.

Why can't he? He always does.

Down to 28 now from a high of 50 at 3pm only 6 hours ago. Clear skies, calm wind and snow cover.

Made it 50 today but dropping like a rock and down to 35 right now. Will probably see some frozen precip early tomorrow before changing to rain.