HeadInTheClouds
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Everything posted by HeadInTheClouds
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18z scorecard IMBY NAM 26 RGEM 19 GFS 3 Can't make this sh!t up.- 3,762 replies
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Agreed. I wouldn't argue with an 8-12 forecast for our area. nam gave us 26 and gfs will give us 2. Split the difference, lol. American models suck.
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I'll take the 26 inches it gives Poughkeepsie, lol, but I agree with you about that cutoff in SE PA. Funky run to say the least.
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It's not just a model run, it's every model run aside from the GFS. I'm not cherry picking one run of one model. We will see how it plays out.
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I hear ya on that. I was on the fringe with Jonas expecting 1-3 inches and saw 1-3 flakes.
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My point, 84 Is not on the fringe with a foot forecast, I90 is on the fringe.
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Its not that short of a distance though. Just looking at Euro It gives Poughkeepsie 1 foot and decreases precip to a few inches around I90. Thats 80-90 miles. It has 6+ well north of 84. Thats just one model but most others have similar numbers.
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i didn't say he wasn't entitled to his opinion.
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Sure. I think the sweet spot will be Eastern Penn-Northern Jersey-Rockland/Westchester on east. 10-12 inch totals well north of there though according to most guidance. I don't consider that a cutoff.
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I disagree with his point though. There is going to be significant snow north of westchester county.
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Really? You might want to inform the models, most of them are giving significant totals 50 miles north of that line you drew.
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Yes and looking at Euro I84 gets around a foot and decreases to 2 inches around I90.
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Yes. Euro/cmc have been giving I84 around a foot for days Wrong, the Ukie has been on crack just like the GFS. The Euro/CMC blend has given the I84 guys 12-14 inches consistently for the past 2 days and the GFS has been giving 1 or 2 inches and just corrected this morning a little. It's been horrible with this.
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I think we also will have slightly higher ratios than NYC metro. 12:1 or so.
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Not even close to what the GFS has been showing past 2 days. This is what cmc/euro blend has been showing though.
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The whole forum will like this one. I'll take my foot and run.
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Agree 100%. They have both been on crack for different reasons. Thats why I have been saying Euro/CMC blend best way to go.
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I would hope so. The last 2 runs gave Albany 2 ft, this one still gives it over a ft. Still not right.
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Not as crazy as last 2 runs but still a good amount of precip far N and W and still warms coast.
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Still 33 with light snow. Coating on colder surfaces.
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LOL, how much now?
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I agree. I don't expect i90 to have warning level criteria, maybe a few inches. I fully expect I84 to have warning level snows.
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