HeadInTheClouds

I think you're wrong.

On the flip side models have trended colder the last 24 hours at surface and aloft. Models also underestimate cold air to the north. A well respected poster on another board quoting a well respected met said "we never close off at 850 or 700 and 850's have multi focal vort max's. The front end thump you have 700 screaming out of the west and 850 out of the SW and not S, SE or E like when you get that close 850 low. A well respected met taught me a long time ago that when you see 700mb out of the west with an over running event without any of the mid levels closing off it screams of correcting colder and snowier. It would not surprise me if the mid level trends cont we get colder and snowier down to the coast."

It's best to use 10:1 in this situation. Kutchera may not be accurate.

Anybody who sees no difference in the models in the last 24 hours isn't paying attention.

YUP

Pivotal weather maps don't count sleet as snow for the most part with other models. Where are your sources about UKIE snow maps including sleet? Funny how the NWS has nearly 3 inches in Rockland by 12z Friday. You might want to give them a call and let them know your thoughts.

850's were slightly colder and 2M temps were very similar though slightly colder north shore of Long Island.

It's slightly colder, yes.

It still showed snow from NYC on north. You didn't answer my question.

BS. The Euro and Ukie looked similar except for Long Island where they had a few inches. You still think no snow south of 84?

I don't know. Pivotal weather maps generally do a good job with the sleet unlike TT. GFS has Long Island snowing for 6 hours before changeover. I don't think that is going to happen though.

Long Island is not getting 6 inches like the gfs shows but I could see 2 inches on north shore.

18z Euro looked pretty good. I expect similar or better at 00z.

Way colder. Look where the 0* line is on each run.

CMC still too warm IMO. Look at last 6 hours of RGEM. It gives more snow to NYC than CMC. Definite trend colder and south with snow on 00z's. Still 3 days out though but nice trends tonight.

It's not even over at this time.

Still going beyond 90 hours

A little wonky but does give metro area some snow.

Nobody ever said this was going to be a NYC metro snowstorm but they can get maybe an inch or 2 on the front end and most of precip may fall as frozen. Go back to hugging the cmc.

12z snowmaps