HeadInTheClouds

Looks that way unfortunately.

Rapidly intensifying low. High impact event but might have to be far N and W to see accumulating snow.

It is but the more N and W you are the better your chances. It all depends on where the low placement is because it's intensifying rapidly and drawing in cold air. It may be too late for most or all of us but that is unknown at this point.

Like I said, can't sleep on this, especially N and W.

Yup. I wouldn't sleep on this one, especially N and W.

Timing is poor and high temps are forecast to be in mid 30's even up here so it would have to come down hard to accumulate in NYC metro and LI. Only expecting 1-2 IMBY.

Yeah, I laughed when I saw that. 9 inches for the city and 10 on Long Island is not happening.

I don't think God listens to him either.

46 with a steady rain.

only 47 here.

CMC/Rgem has been showing this for days and have been very consistent when no other model wanted anything to do with it. They also did the best with the last storm.

Did get a coating of snow on cars and grass last night. 38 right now.

Feb was such a meh month. Some warm, some cold. Finished 1.8 degrees above normal with 7 inches of snow. Meh.

He just recognizes the same crap you post about every single event and/or at the beginning of every single month. I could set my watch to it. BTW I'm not overly excited myself about March but still could see 1 or 2 minor/moderate type events especially the farther north you are. Too early for anybody to throw the towel in on winter right now.

Not a total bust in Dutchess and Ulster is what I said. More of a bust in other areas like north of NYC and LHV where many models(Euro, GFS, Ukie) were colder and gave those areas snow. NWS was calling for 2-4 in those areas and many got just sleet. Most of the models have not done a good job this winter. CMC/Rgem have been the best and did a good job with this one actually.

The thing is no matter how some want to say it was a sleetfest in this area many places in Dutchess and Ulster got between 4 and 5 and some places close to 6. It may have been a little less than expected but it also wasn't a total bust.

Wednesday night/ Thursday is something to watch for. Northern areas probably favored on this one but it may be a minor/moderate event for some.

I mostly vented about the nam being way too warm and not correct with it's snow totals north, especially in and around I90. The Capital district was never going to get inundated with sleet and it was always going to get a 6+ inch snowfall. When the nam corrected in later runs to a more reasonable solution I said as much. Yes I did think LHV was going to get more snow than they got and Poughkeepsie area in MHV was going to get a 6 inch snowfall and we fell a little short. I was wrong about that. You happy now?

Yeah and? Albany reported 7 inches, Delmar 8. Places in Greene county which is south of Albany reported 7 and 8 also. So what if they got some sleet? The nam had them getting LOTS of sleet 2 days ago and hardly any snow.

This is true.

Models have been good at sniffing out events but they have been very poor with the details for the most part this winter. Often this season there has been no consensus even within 24 hours of event. Euro used to be the king, not it's as mediocre as the rest of them. I don't expect them to be perfect as each model has it's own biases and strengths, but I think they have been poor this winter and the American models have been the worst of the bunch even though nam was good this storm the last 6-7 runs once it corrected.

Actually it was 2 consecutive runs and it was within 48 hours of the event I believe. Shift around? It took sleet up to central Vermont, might as well taken it to Canada. In the end it was good though still too far north with the sleet. 45 minutes north of me received 7 inches and Albany area got 8-9.

I got 3.5 which ties the biggest amount so far this year so I didn't entirely miss out, although 45 minutes north got 7, and it took me 2 hours to clear driveway. It's white outside and has high moisture content so maybe it will stick around for awhile. 19 so far this season.

CMC/Rgem were pretty good I thought. Other globals(GFS, UKIE, Euro) were too cold with too much snow and the nam was giving Albany 3 inches and had sleet up to vermont before it corrected. Im not saying they all have to be perfect especially in complicated setups but this winter they have been pretty terrible for the most part.

There is just no go to model like the Euro used to be. They all suck.