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HeadInTheClouds

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Everything posted by HeadInTheClouds

  1. HeadInTheClouds
    The GFS evolution gives me over a foot so I'm rooting for it hard just like I am for Zach Wilson this Sunday although I think that neither is very good.
  2. HeadInTheClouds
    00z CMC very similar to 12z. Woof.
  3. HeadInTheClouds
    Unfortunately it's going to take a lot of evolving to move this baby east 1000 miles especially when all models are way west.
  4. HeadInTheClouds
    It's over. These storms that cut like this don't trend east. It's not an inland runner. It's a strong low setting up shop in the midwest.
  5. HeadInTheClouds
    Yes, I was just saying the GFS is normally stubborn and doesn't cave so quickly to other models no matter what the scenario. It usually takes a few days and not just 1 or 2 model runs.
  6. HeadInTheClouds
    It hasn't been warm. I haven't been past the mid 30's for highs in a week and hit a low of 10 this week. December will likely finish average or slightly below average. It just hasn't snowed as much as we would like.
  7. HeadInTheClouds
    Well that didn't take long for the GFS to partially cave. It usually takes a day or 2 at this timeframe.
  8. HeadInTheClouds
    Yup. He's lighting a cigar as we speak.
  9. HeadInTheClouds
    I was only kidding but it will still eventually cave. This weeks storm isn't close to the differences in next week's. It was more thermal and nuances with topography, elevation, downsloping, etc. The differences in next week's storm are huge.
  10. HeadInTheClouds
    Or until GFS eventually caves. Whichever comes first.
  11. HeadInTheClouds
    I don't and it's not just model output or this one particular storm. It's just a bad model that has had worse results after an upgrade. It's far worse than both the Euro and CMC. Look at what is happening with next week's storm.
  12. HeadInTheClouds
    Just a minor difference of 1500 miles.
  13. HeadInTheClouds
    What a disaster with today's runs. Don't worry though 18z GFS should show 2 feet of snow though.
  14. HeadInTheClouds
    33 and mixed snow and rain. Big whoop.
  15. HeadInTheClouds
    Yes, one of the last models runs before the event. It's kuchera map was still showing 7 inches for Poughkeepsie on it's 18z run yesterday while all other models were showing little to nothing. I know snow maps aren't the be all and end all and are often very inaccurate but cmon. It's just a bad model and lagging behind the European and Canadian models.
  16. HeadInTheClouds
    And it continues to prove my point. The truth will set you free.
  17. HeadInTheClouds
    No it wasn't. It was too far south and east and too cold. GFS as late as yesterday was giving my area around 6 inches and most other models were giving it close to zero. We got close to zero. When GFS is on it's own it's nearly always wrong.
  18. HeadInTheClouds
    Remember what I said yesterday about believing the opposite of what the GFS shows. This is a prime example.
  19. HeadInTheClouds
    I'm not liking these last few model runs at all. Euro was inland at 00z and CMC was a disaster with a major rainstorm. Icon also showed basically a front with rain. Anytime the GFS is basically on it's own it usually spells trouble.
  20. HeadInTheClouds
    And? That damn model can't get things right 12 hours before an event. POS. I'm going to be like George Costanza and believe the opposite of whatever the GFS shows.
  21. HeadInTheClouds
    Yeah, that sounds reasonable.
  22. HeadInTheClouds
    Poughkeepsie's average is around 36-38 I believe. Albany is generally around 50. I'm 10 miles north of Poughkeepsie and average about 40.
  23. HeadInTheClouds
    It's disappointing for sure. I never thought we were going to get the GFS totals but I didn't think we were going to get nothing either. I was thinking 2 or 3 inches for a total. So far CMC/RGEM have been spot on. Maybe we get some light accums as storm pulls away later Friday/Friday night. Oh well, on to the next.
  24. HeadInTheClouds
    36 and moderate rain.
  25. HeadInTheClouds
    34 and doing absolutely nothing.
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