HeadInTheClouds

@CPcantmeasuresnow

This thing is booking.

31 with light snow. Almost over here in Dutchess county. Picked up 2 inches. Never got into the heavier bands but something is better than nothing. 17.5 for the season.

NWS Albany finally did put the crack pipe down and lowered my forecast to 2-4.

They updated the forecast late this afternoon from 7-13 to 4-8 but nearly every piece of guidance shows barely anything. I think it's pretty obvious where this is going. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we got only a dusting. They also didn't update the briefing from 4:30am that shows Poughkeepsie area getting 8-12. It's just strange.

So I'm 20 miles north of 84 in western Dutchess county and NWS Albany still has a winter storm warning for a total of 4-8 inches. They also haven't updated a storm briefing from 4am today. Are they smoking something? I'm thinking 1-3/2-4 max . I would love to know what they are thinking.

Big changes today.

I don't, lol. I thought it was a lock to see 8-12 a little north of 84, now it looks 4-8. Maybe.

You think they are going to disregard globals such as GFS, Euro, CMC and just look at mesos? No way.

3K Nam

00z runs will be interesting. I'm always leery of off hour runs.

Not every model run is going to be exactly the same. I see no real difference except 12z nam is a little west with the low and GFS a tad east.

Where exactly?

This is true but they are in the business of accurate forecasts. Haven't watched that channel in years.

Where is the south shift that some speak of? I see none of this at 12z.