Beachin
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Everything posted by Beachin
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ITS STILL GOING OMG
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Uh yeah you want convection you got it
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There is some really deep moisture and vorticity advection aloft. Soundings are gonna show some definite instability aloft. Pretty good signal for strong banding and possible convection (Thundersnow)
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Man this run is gonna be a beatdown lol Low is actually inland over NC headed towards EVA
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I spy the NAM strengthening the 850mb jet Closed 145DM 850 low this run too. Everything is only getting better
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LOL oh yeah big time NAM'ING incoming 500MB is the best its looked Yet!
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This is gonna be a good run much more expansive precip into WV and a strong 850mb jet coming out of the south 14 still has a closed low signature Vort has responded much better. Consolidated and stronger
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Long long range HRRR its still snowing so you can add to this im sure but yeah looks good HRRR KUCHERA Northern MD 5-8 Baltimore metro and DC metro 6-10 few 10+ pockets
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I know the NWS uses the SREF'S for trends very close to a event so this has to have them thinking for sure. IF 12z models nail WSW will fly for everyone im sure
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You are reading it right and its very possible with what the trends have been
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For you DC area
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Huge jump on the SREF for northern MD no doubt
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This is for Aberdeen Harford county. Look at the mean jump!!!!!
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Not really going to need the coastal low to rack up good totals you can see the moisture transport pretty clear on radar and where the fetch runs into cold air its dumping snow. The vort has been continually looking better and better since 24 hours ago. I see a over performer.
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Moisture transport from Gulf and Atlantic
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That gulf tap does so much
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Storm is continuing to trend north so I'm confident to let this out. (Northern area's may go higher later since ratios are much higher then southern areas) I think area wide masondixon south gets a WSW Northern MD 5-8 Baltimore metro 6-10 DC metro 6-10 (isolated 10+)
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Fyiy the GEFS is north and still north then the OP. Don't think this north trend is over
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Woah 3k is way more amped then 12z and 6z runs. For those on the northern fringe I'd feel good with what you see right now.
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00z should be really fun tonight
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Gotta like what you see. Amplifying run after run.
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Se Ridge is stronger to along with a deeper ridge in the west. 500mb looks great definitely gonna be north and probably stronger
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Heights are higher so far on the NAM should be coming north again through 12. At 15 nice weaknes forming and confluence is breaking down sooner again. High is another MB lower then 12z and the Hudson bay storm is faster and deeper Should be a good result
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Sref plumes went up pretty big time. Don't think this north move is finished. Mean is about 2 with several higher members
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3 runs in a row of a weaker high and faster progression with the low. Nothing to stop this from going north at this point based on trends
